Prices,Prices,Prices

[skyhightree1]

upper 400's is where I like to sell I agree keeping longer does not pencil out atleast not for me even with all the free feed I get.

 

[Dave]

I had a few too many teen pregnancies amongst the heifers so picked up a couple at the sale on Friday. Nice stretchy black angus heifers that weighed 820 and 875. Paid $1.20 and $1.10. Wish I had bought those kind for that money all spring. They will help to cheapen up the average some. They have missed the AI by a week but the clean up bull has to do something to earn his keep.

For the heck of it I looked up last week at Toppenish. The best light steers reported weighed 440 and brought $1.86. The best steers ready to go to the feed lot weighed 814 and brought $1.28. Add 374 pounds for $223. That is 59 cents a pound for the gain. That is a pretty tough margin to put weight on for 59 cents.

Here the optimum to sell is between 4 to 5 wt go figure but that is what the order buyers want. If they go over 6 wt it doesn't pencil out as you pointed out. I bought a 830 heifer for 75 bucks more than I got on a 4 wt makes no sense to me on why you would hold to that weight.

For me back when I was running cows I weaned all at the same time. The local sale is 20 cents under the market most of the time. Toppenish is 180 miles and a pretty good mountain pass away. They also will sell groups for a dime than singles. So back then I left them out to pasture until the bottom end was ready to go. The cows all have to be off the summer pasture by mid October. So that was my cut off rather than the weight of individual calves.

I ran the figures based on heifers from last week at Toppenish. It came out better than the steers. Eight head of 492 pound heifers (the smallest they reported) sold for $1.46. And 40 head of 818 pound heifers brought $1.34. The 326 pounds of gain was worth an additional 86 cents a pound.

 

[kenny thomas]

Futures went down the limit today and it sure showed in the local market. I didn't take a trailer so I wouldn't be tempted to buy some. I almost did anyway.

 

[hurleyjd]

Sulphur Springs Tx Netbio sale 5000 head 32 buyers. Sale sheet at the link shown:

http://www.sslivestockauctions.com/netb ... sheet.html

 

[skyhightree1]

Futures went down the limit today and it sure showed in the local market. I didn't take a trailer so I wouldn't be tempted to buy some. I almost did anyway.

Sold a Jersey heifer calved in pen for 475 for the pair the Angus and bwf were 1200 tops for pairs breds were 875-1000 consistently today

 

[Ojp6]

Seems like raising brangus heifers would be the thing to do if 759 lbs are still bringing 2.05.

 

[yakker]

I had a few too many teen pregnancies amongst the heifers so picked up a couple at the sale on Friday. Nice stretchy black angus heifers that weighed 820 and 875. Paid $1.20 and $1.10. Wish I had bought those kind for that money all spring. They will help to cheapen up the average some. They have missed the AI by a week but the clean up bull has to do something to earn his keep.

For the heck of it I looked up last week at Toppenish. The best light steers reported weighed 440 and brought $1.86. The best steers ready to go to the feed lot weighed 814 and brought $1.28. Add 374 pounds for $223. That is 59 cents a pound for the gain. That is a pretty tough margin to put weight on for 59 cents.

Here the optimum to sell is between 4 to 5 wt go figure but that is what the order buyers want. If they go over 6 wt it doesn't pencil out as you pointed out. I bought a 830 heifer for 75 bucks more than I got on a 4 wt makes no sense to me on why you would hold to that weight.

For me back when I was running cows I weaned all at the same time. The local sale is 20 cents under the market most of the time. Toppenish is 180 miles and a pretty good mountain pass away. They also will sell groups for a dime than singles. So back then I left them out to pasture until the bottom end was ready to go. The cows all have to be off the summer pasture by mid October. So that was my cut off rather than the weight of individual calves.

I ran the figures based on heifers from last week at Toppenish. It came out better than the steers. Eight head of 492 pound heifers (the smallest they reported) sold for $1.46. And 40 head of 818 pound heifers brought $1.34. The 326 pounds of gain was worth an additional 86 cents a pound.

Eight 492 pound heifers that sold for $1.46 at Toppenish....if you need a picture Dave, let me know as they are in my corrals!

 

[True Grit Farms]

https://youtu.be/JtktFygI8Lc

I copied thus off NAT and how true it is.

 

[Dave]

[
Eight 492 pound heifers that sold for $1.46 at Toppenish....if you need a picture Dave, let me know as they are in my corrals!

I don't need a picture. I got that information off John's report not the USDA report so I figured that they were good ones. With a screen name like Yakker I figured that you must be over in that part of the world.

 

[TexasBred]

upper 400's is where I like to sell I agree keeping longer does not pencil out atleast not for me even with all the free feed I get.

I've always done the same Anywhere from 385 up to 485 seems to dollar out about as well as you can expect.

 

[Stocker Steve]

upper 400's is where I like to sell I agree keeping longer does not pencil out atleast not for me even with all the free feed I get.

I've always done the same Anywhere from 385 up to 485 seems to dollar out about as well as you can expect.

Is this due to cheap corn, or is there another reason?

 

[yakker]

I ran the figures based on heifers from last week at Toppenish. It came out better than the steers. Eight head of 492 pound heifers (the smallest they reported) sold for $1.46. And 40 head of 818 pound heifers brought $1.34. The 326 pounds of gain was worth an additional 86 cents a pound.

I would like to know how others figure there gross profit when buying calves in the spring, putting them on pasture, then selling them back in the fall. Using Dave's weights and prices above, buying in May and selling in November below is what I am thinking:

From current market report: 492lbs x $1.46 = $718
From current market report: 818lbs x $1.34
May feeder cattle futures = 1.46, November feeder cattle futures = 1.36; this equals a 10 cents drop
Assume Spring prices are typically 10 cents higher than Fall prices (with a steady market) equals another 10 cents drop
$1.34 - $0.20 = $1.14 for the 818 lb heifers in the Fall = $932
$932 - $718 = $214 gross (w/o expense)

I'm not sure if I'm doubling up when computing a drop from the futures price and typical drop from spring to fall prices? I am interested in seeing how others calc. this.

 

[skyhightree1]

Is anyone else's prices dropping about .10-.15 per lb in your areas ?

 

[callmefence]

Is anyone else's prices dropping about .10-.15 per lb in your areas ?

Yep

 

[JMJ Farms]

Is anyone else's prices dropping about .10-.15 per lb in your areas ?

Yep

Same here or maybe a little worse :bang:

 

[farmerjan]

Labor day weekend is a bad time to compare, but I watched 375 to 450 wt steers bring an avg 1.25 (.90 to 1.38) and some in the 450 to 550 1.20 to 1.30. Heifer prices were nearly the same, maybe .05 to .10 less. Only had 275 head. The rain has stopped here and expect this week for a run; usually have 1500 to 2000 on fridays in the fall, Sept to end of Oct.. If it stays dry now they will come to the sale sooner than later. Buyers are telling us that they don't have the orders, and there is alot of nervous nellies with the economy and the increased cow numbers and drought in some areas....We try to sell in the 400-500 range too and them dry the cows up until next calving.

 

[skyhightree1]

Is anyone else's prices dropping about .10-.15 per lb in your areas ?

Yep

Same here or maybe a little worse :bang:

IMO I think the bottom of this is near and hopefully next spring will start the recovery

 

[JMJ Farms]

Yep

Same here or maybe a little worse :bang:

IMO I think the bottom of this is near and hopefully next spring will start the recovery

I sure hope you're right. I honestly don't know that I even have an opinion on the subject. Can you believe that? I knew prices were inflated but I didn't see the suddenness of the downturn coming. I have a good spring crop of calves, about 50 head and I don't know whether to cut bait and sell or try to hold them. I've got plenty of feed. But I'm still not sure holding them is a good idea. Guess I could sell half and hold half. Maybe sell the steers and grow the heifers? Idk.

 

[Ojp6]

At a sale I go to Kentucky the 4 weight steers brought 33 cents less last week than they did the week before. It's been a big crash in the last 2 and a half weeks. Big bunches of 8-9 weight steers were bringing over 1.50 a couple weeks ago, seems like they are mostly all in the 1.20s now. It could be that a lot more cattle are about to start moving out west, I'm not sure but it isn't fun.

If you need some heifers to breed it could be a decent time to buy. I saw some pretty fancy 8 weight heifers sell Tuesday from .95 to 1.03 that looked like they would make cows. They had a bunch of good 4 weight heifers bring 1.15-1.18 at that same sale.

 

[skyhightree1]

Same here or maybe a little worse :bang:

IMO I think the bottom of this is near and hopefully next spring will start the recovery

I sure hope you're right. I honestly don't know that I even have an opinion on the subject. Can you believe that? I knew prices were inflated but I didn't see the suddenness of the downturn coming. I have a good spring crop of calves, about 50 head and I don't know whether to cut bait and sell or try to hold them. I've got plenty of feed. But I'm still not sure holding them is a good idea. Guess I could sell half and hold half. Maybe sell the steers and grow the heifers? Idk.

I planned to sell about 15-20 in November but I don't see me doing it when prices are dancing at 1.00lb basically. I got like you plenty of feed so I can hold off till spring or either build a cooler and get into the meat business like my buddy toad. I am like you I knew there would be a correction of prices but I didn't know there was going to be theft. I will for now drop back and wait and see what happens. I am buying here and there still but definitely not in a rush to sell anything. I got a 600lb bull calf that has a rank attitude I want to get rid of him bad but not bad enough at these prices. I retain all my heifers anyway unless they have some issues. I see no need for me to get rid as I have about 17 4x5 bales of hay per head and I haven't baled any peanut vines yet either and a unlimited supply of grain. I can hold off for a while.