Lasting cattle prices

[firemen122]

We have purchased a farm that we previously owned. We can run around 60 head of cow/calf on this ground. I spent the last 6 months getting the pastures back into shape. We are ready to put some cattle on the ground, but the insanely high prices have me scared to make the leap on 20-30 head to start the herd. I am old enough to have seen these swings before, but the inflation that we have in the last 36 months or so is a new twist. What do the folks on here think the future may hold? My fear is investing 1800-2100 for a bred heifer/cow and the value plummeting in 24 months.

 

[MurraysMutts]

I think your 24 month estimate is fair!!

Shop around!
Buy some one n done old cows/pairs/breds and make some cash while waiting.

My 2 cents and worth every penny...

 

[bird dog]

I agree with Murray on the one and done's. I doubt we will have a real quick correction in prices, more like a gradual decline. With one and done's your risk is less because your turn around is quicker. If markets crash, you won't lose money but you might not make any either.

 

[MurraysMutts]

Another thing some folks do is buy a bunch of short bred cows and put a big group together to re-sell as heavy breds. With the amount of grass you have, this could be a good option!
Initial investment is higher. But ya flip em within a shorter time period as well. No calving issues etc either.

 

[Travlr]

I am old enough to have seen these swings before, but the inflation that we have in the last 36 months or so is a new twist. What do the folks on here think the future may hold? My fear is investing 1800-2100 for a bred heifer/cow and the value plummeting in 24 months.

I think you are wise to be cautious. I kind of doubt there will be a deep dive, but it could happen.

Some one and dones will raise calves that will sell for more than you pay for the cows, and if you buy wisely most of them will breed back and raise another calf or two before you sell them as culls... which should net you about what you paid for them if the market remains stable.

If you know anyone that culls for age at ten years and they have good cattle you might want to go to them for a group of typey cows so you know what kind of calves you will get from them, now and in the future,

 

[firemen122]

I think your 24 month estimate is fair!!

Shop around!
Buy some one n done old cows/pairs/breds and make some cash while waiting.

My 2 cents and worth every penny...

Thank Murray, you have stated exactly what my thoughts have been so far.

 

[firemen122]

Thanks for all the feedback. I was thinking very much along these lines for the next 24-36 months to see how things play out.
I have thought about doing stockers for short term, but that is a whole new train of thought. I have never truly researched that market and what it takes to be truly succesful.

 

[Brute 23]

Not sure what the freight would look like but a lot of Texas is very dry. There might be some thing to your liking here at a reasonable price.

 

[kenny thomas]

Im gonna bet that since the hurricane there will be some decent cattle in your area for sale, especially in Taylor County around Perry. Lots of fences destroyed there. I just came from Perry last night.

 

[Dave]

I think it is prudent to be cautions right now. I have a friend who just told me that in 2014 he bought 2 semi loads of 500 pound steers. He ended up loosing $435 a head on those steers. Back then everyone thought those prices would last 2 or 3 years. They didn't.

 

[kenny thomas]

The odds are better with calves and buying Livestock Risk Protection.

 

[Little Joe]

Check with Bubba Rutherford, Rutherford Land and Cattle, He will probably have a group that will fit your bill and can ship them to you. These cattle will already be worked, aged, pregged and grouped accordingly. He also sends crazies to slaughter to keep from passing along.

 

[Djm961]

I would probably follow Kennys advise. Buy some stockers and purchase LRP on them for the next couple years. I sold about 25% of my herd this spring and summer because of drought. I don't plan on buying anything back until prices come back down which unfortunately will happen at some point.

 

[Caustic Burno]

I think your 24 month estimate is fair!!

Shop around!
Buy some one n done old cows/pairs/breds and make some cash while waiting.

My 2 cents and worth every penny...

I was going to say shop for some SS heavies.
The calf the old short and solids are carrying is worth it.
I have bought some through the years and got four or five more calves out of the girls.

The real place to be shopping for that type is Texas or western Louisiana!
No grass and no hay!
Check out the bred cow prices.

https://easttexaslivestock.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Market-Report-9-5-23-Sep-6-2023-1-59-AM.pdf

 

[firemen122]

Thanks Everyone for the thoughts. It is a very hard decision for us right now and the wisdom is appreciated. I think we are going to hold tight on the purse strings unless a good deal comes our way for sure. I see folks around here trying to get 1850-2000 a piece and up for bred 3-5 year olds. I cannot help but think that is just asking to lose your hind end in the future. If I come up on some older bred cows can be bought in the 1000-1200 range I would feel like not so much to lose when the market flips again.

 

[gcreekrch]

The odds are better with calves and buying Livestock Risk Protection.

My bet will be on young bred cows this fall. Thinking their calves will be worth more next fall than they are now.

 

[Peace]

I think your 24 month estimate is fair!!

Shop around!
Buy some one n done old cows/pairs/breds and make some cash while waiting.

My 2 cents and worth every penny...

I agree with this info. There isn't anything wrong with buying 5 to 10 year old bred cows and not paying up for heifers.