When will drought culling drop cattle prices?

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Lot's of people getting out in our area too. Especially now that prices are good and feed is.... well not the greatest.
I was wondering too how long that price is going to stay up. Feed is going to be costly this year for feedlots, add lots of animals going to sale plus the regular run start fall......... for us north of the border you have to add the value of our dollar compared to yours south of the border........
Wouldn't mind a good cheque once the calves are gone, but like @greybeard said "We don't get to price"
 
google cattle feeder futures and look at the history back to 2013. at the peak, October 2014 @ 242.925 it took two years, October 2016 to hit a low @ 113.75 before heading north. History might repeat itself. sell high, buy low on the downhill slide.
 
DNelson said:
google cattle feeder futures and look at the history back to 2013. at the peak, October 2014 @ 242.925 it took two years, October 2016 to hit a low @ 113.75 before heading north. History might repeat itself. sell high, buy low on the downhill slide.
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When you look at the chart it makes you think we are at a high. With the conditions, inflation being a major one, followed by drought and a the mass exodus of older producers, it's hard to see how it could go down with out a depression of some sort bringing all the markets down.

With most good being 2-3x more, our peak should be 2-3x more than the 2014 peak. 😄
 
I have heard of feedlots that have a lot of empty space. It takes a lot of money to go out and buy 5,000 head right now. Even if you have bunk space and feed.
 
Brute 23 said:
When you look at the chart it makes you think we are at a high. With the conditions, inflation being a major one, followed by drought and a the mass exodus of older producers, it's hard to see how it could go down with out a depression of some sort bringing all the markets down.

With most good being 2-3x more, our peak should be 2-3x more than the 2014 peak. 😄
Click to expand...
I agree this is different. I wasn't in the cattle business in 2012 thru 2016 so real boots on the ground experience is worth listening too. we all can use yours and others recollection of the past market ups and downs. when i look at the beef cattle inventory it shows a decline in numbers from about 2008 to 2013 and then the number of cattle increase to around 2018 and then start a decline again. 2013 beef cattle inventory appears to be about the same in 2023 of 29,900,000 +/-. with the drought continuing the inventory seems likely to end lower by next spring. with that history it appears that the 2013/2014 increase in futures was from herd rebuilding and not a sell off like today. if that turns out to be true, then the future cattle prices should continue to increase for some time. Also, the decline from 2014 peak of 242.95 to the normal 150.00 took about one year and to the low of 113.00 another year so we can be reasonably sure that the next downturn should be gradual over a year or two, unless we get into a regular recession in 2024, which is very possible. So, does anyone think the high will continue to 350.00? there are some claiming that it will!
 
greybeard said:
We?

The market is what the market is. 'We' don't get to price squat.
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"We" as in the cattle industry.
And yes we do contribute to the price end users pay. How many people sell freezer beef? How many of those producers do you suppose tell their customers "the cattle market is just too high. Only pay me $1/lb hanging " None. Everyone thinks freezer beef demands a premium because it's farm to fork, raised in a small farm with sunshine and grass.
Now granted that is a VERY small percentage of the meat consumers as a whole are buying, but it's still a portion.
 
That's why we kept 5 replacement heifers this spring instead of 25-30.... and why we will probably keep very, very few, if any out of the group getting weaned off in 2 weeks.... sell all but the very, very best now... and all the open and "mediocre producing cows" .... keep all the bred cows for a calf crop to sell next year... then watch the markets/supply situation closely and make decisions then....
 
If we were a commercial herd would sell down some and keep very few heifers, but with a registered herd it's more just hold numbers steady. We had a great grass year, which gives us a chance to reset our pasture management. Cow numbers are in balance or a little understocked for the amount of pasture. The goal is to graze 10 months of the year with some cake starting around first of December til we start calving March 1. Then feed half rations of alfalfa til grass comes on around May 1. We can actually run a cow fairly cheap here (less than a ton of hay per head) if we manage pastures right and aren't in a drought.
 
I don't see these prices coming down for several years, if ever. Gonna see contraction in cowherd in North America like never before in the next 3-4 years. Everyone that rode the wave in 2014 is 10 years older and there are no new 25 year olds jumping in with a million in debt to replace the 80 year old that died at the wheel while cutting outside rounds, or the 64 year old that says it's his time to retire and just collect a rent cheque on the land and let the cropper go bankrupt.

Steaks and roasts will become niche product like lobster. Pork and chicken will take some market share. But neither can scale up quick enough to overcome beef, especially with their disease outbreaks. And nothing can compete with the value and versatility of ground beef. So more steers and heifers might have to hit the grinder...big whoop.

I'm no optimist, but I sure see a brighter future in cattle industry than I ever have in 30 years. Whenever everyone is running to the exits, you walk slowly in the opposite direction.
 
Aaron said:
I don't see these prices coming down for several years, if ever. Gonna see contraction in cowherd in North America like never before in the next 3-4 years. Everyone that rode the wave in 2014 is 10 years older and there are no new 25 year olds jumping in with a million in debt to replace the 80 year old that died at the wheel while cutting outside rounds, or the 64 year old that says it's his time to retire and just collect a rent cheque on the land and let the cropper go bankrupt.

Steaks and roasts will become niche product like lobster. Pork and chicken will take some market share. But neither can scale up quick enough to overcome beef, especially with their disease outbreaks. And nothing can compete with the value and versatility of ground beef. So more steers and heifers might have to hit the grinder...big whoop.

I'm no optimist, but I sure see a brighter future in cattle industry than I ever have in 30 years. Whenever everyone is running to the exits, you walk slowly in the opposite direction.
Click to expand...
I agree.
I was actually talking to my son about this yesterday, thinning the herd and keeping just enough to satisfy our love for the business and start investing in something else?
We talked about keeping maybe 50-60 cows.
Hereford bulls on black cows?
 

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