When will drought culling drop cattle prices?

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Walking W

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near Ft Worth, Texas
No rain. No grass on my little place. Expensive hay. Sold an angus cross yearling with scurs last Monday at the Decatur auction. Weight 780. Price $2.20. Keeping one for the freezer. On a positive note, the peanut skins I am supplementing their feed with really makes them look good.
 
We're going to hold onto the good cows until next spring?
Not me. Selling mostly all the spring calvers. Only keeping a couple heifers that spring calved. Won't be enough hay to last all winter and big cows eat more. Fall cows are calving now. Cows are becoming one-and-done and I'm focusing on the heifers and young stock.
 
I think we are in the low right now.

In our area, you can drive and see noticeably less cattle in the pastures. The last several years have been dry. Many people have gotten out and stayed out. This spring when we had good rains, there were herd sells outs non-stop. People were getting out while the getting was good. Right now is usually a slow time between the spring and fall sales. The sales are running close to fall numbers. A lot of the smaller guys who tend to stock heavy are operating on borrowed time. Their pastures are gone and there isn't hay for sale so they are about to have to do some thing.
 
Seems like you guys out west have been in a drought for awhile. I seem to recall a lot of people selling off their cattle last year?
 
Inventories are low. Hopefully, prices will stay up for a while.
Seems like you guys out west have been in a drought for awhile. I seem to recall a lot of people selling off their cattle last year?
Lots of cattle were unloaded last year, we were buying nice young cows at a good price, they are unloading here again this year, but they are selling a lot higher.
We are lucky to have enough hay to get us through, unless cattle and hay get so high we might just sell out?
 
I sure hate the drought yall are going thru.
There is an abundance of hay up here this year. Been shipping a bunch up north to Kansas where they were droughted out so bad.
The hay is reasonably priced. It's the shipping that hikes it up.
If any of yall are in need, PM me. I'll give ya my guys number. He can arrange shipping too. Reasonable...
 
out here cow prices are usually good into september, then the cows come off the range and that's when there's a glut on the sales.. same with the calves
 
It may not take that long. I sold a load of fats for a feedlot today. Talking to the cattle buyer about prices and delivery dates. He said they are cutting hours at the plant because they have a surplus of retail product and the packers are saying that they are losing money.
I've been saying for two years that we were going to price ourselves out of our market share. Other animal proteins are less expensive. In the current economic state of most middle class and low income families will buy more chicken or pork.
I don't care how few cows are in the country. If the packers start bidding less than the feed lots cost of production, the feeders will have to start paying less for calves/yearlings.
It won't take long for the dominos to fall in a hurry.
 
I'm thinking that prices will hold here through spring 2024.... but I am not thinking fall 2024 will be as good because of the prices having been too high in the stores for the retail product and people are going to be really feeling it in the pocketbook with the inflation all around... can't afford to buy as much meat... of any breed/species....
The economy in general is not all the "administration" says it is, as we all that actually work and live out here in the real world, know.
Once things settle out with the elections, then it is anyone's GUESS.....
Yes there are fewer and fewer cows around... selling way down now is just good business with the high return on animals... of course, all but 2 of ours were checked pregnant this time around....for the fall calving season this year...
We retained 5 heifers from last years calves instead of the 20 +/- we normally do... might be even fewer of the ones we are going to wean next week from the late fall group... so they get the 60 day rest period... grass is getting short there and will wean calves and move cows to field we will calve them out in later... and I don't know if we will keep calves for the winter or not... have 400 tons silage in the pit we never opened this spring because we sold so many.... might pay to put weight on them and sell in the early early spring... will have to see after we get them in and what the prices are doing.... might just ship a whole big bunch and sit on the silage another year.... it's sealed up good and all concrete floor and sides so not going to get spoiled until it gets opened...
Have plenty of hay, sorghum-sudan ready to cut and is going to be a very good crop... have rolls of wheat we normally do not make hay that we made early to get this sorghum-sudan grass planted...
We have been blessed with fairly timely rain once we got past the chilly dry month of June... and our cow numbers are down also... so pastures are more than adequate. Doesn't happen this way very often...
 
We put in the pit silo last summer ,2022...... there used to be a pit silo with the sides all dirt as many were built that way and there was waste and all... built by the previous owner many years ago., For several years we did silage bags in that spot.... but the coons and possums would get into them and tear them and there was waste with them. Still better than nothing. The silage bags got more expensive, had to coordinate getting the bagger to rent, and then had to have trucks with side chute, to haul and then to unload the silage as there was not way to drive around in a circle with wagons to unload right there at the bagger where the silage went in for it to pack it as it crept forward. ... backing a wagon in took more time and some (me included) were not good with backing the wagon into the slot alongside the bag and the tractor on the bagger..... it works okay out in the open as many do... but it was a pita for us. So after son bought the farm from the widow of the friend... and we had been renting it since he got sick and passed away... he determined he was going to concrete it to have a slab... and used the concrete "blocks" they pour to make the sides. One side, and the back, is 4 blocks high... they are about 3x8x3high or something....against the dirt side; the side that is in the open is 3 blocks high... plans were for 3 blocks high..... slab is 30x100 I think...

I know that pre-covid the price was estimated at 12-15,000... post covid increases had it costing about 20,000.... but the slab is there, it is over 6" thick so can be used as a floor to build a shop on if he ever decides to.... and the blocks can be moved for other stuff if wanted. Blocks alone went from $45/50 each to over $80.....hauled 3 at a time from the concrete place on the flat bed trailer as they came available. They pour them at the concrete place with left over concrete in the trucks and other mixes there.... so sometimes they had a dozen, sometimes only 1 or 2... and others would get some too, so we made sure we could get at least 3 to make the trip worthwhile...

We can use any dump truck to fill... back up, dump and then we run tractors over it to pack.... 2 side by side with a little room to spare while packing...
Put all the corn we grew that year ... about 14 acres and about 6 acres of sorghum-sudan on the top from the small field next to it and it is full to the very top.....tapered down in the front...and covered with a plastic sheet and then we used plastic from previous bags on top of that to help discourage the critters from digging into it and tearing up the plastic... with lots of old tires on top to hold it down and keep the air out.

I did a little helping to tie all the rebar to the metal supports, and helped with the pouring a little to spread it as the trucks came in and poured it...went to the rental place to get the "float machine etc... but my son and 3 others did 99% of the work. Had a concrete guy who was a whiz with the "float" machine to get it smooth....
Took weeks and weeks of prep doing it part time.... didn't have to "form it" since we used the blocks as the "outside form" for it...
My son did one he// of a job getting it ready and coordinating everything. He could take the blocks off the free standing side and make it bigger if wanted also as the spot there that was carved out of the bank/hill by the previous owner is about 100x150 overall... with the free standing side open to the trees there...
That silage is like money in the bank.... insurance against a dry year or not enough hay... we fed out of the silage bags to the groups of feeders that we buy and make up more uniform groups to sell.... and we feed it to the fall calving old cows so they can make a little better milk for their calves.... anything that we feel needs a little "extra" when the hay is not enough or of mediocre quality, in the cold and wet weather.
 
@farmerjan - your stored forage situation sounds AWESOME.
This year we are in a very good position. Mostly it is because we were late getting the cows out to pasture which has turned out to be a blessing... And having 25-35 fewer cows than we had last year, plus so few retained heifers. The slow growth due to the cooler June and little rain had us very concerned... but then the rain came end of June, it warmed up, and everything just jumped out of the ground. Because we didn't hold over the number of heifers we usually do we actually sub-rented a pasture to a neighbor for 10 heifers of his.... I am of the mindset that unless it was a heifer out of an old and very good long time productive cow, they did not stay... $2.00 heifers 3 months ago were not practical to keep. In a couple of years when they crash again, retaining $.75/lb heifers makes more sense... I did this years ago and my son said I was nuts to sell all my heifers those 2 years.... but he told people many times since that "mom made a smart choice" and he wished he had sold more of his... Understand that I run about 30 cows or so in the "combined herd" we run together; out of the 150 brood cows we have....
It is where it is... I am no "crystal ball gypsy reader".... just watched the trends for a long time... but honestly, things are where it is ANYONE'S guess right now.
 

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