whats driving cattle prices up so much

[dieselbeef]

well...im back kinda....boards diff huh.....

drought
covid selloff

market is as high as it was a few yrs ago. never thought id see it this high again...

 

[tex452]

The drought in Texas has lowered numbers considerably.
We drove to my ranch in Coleman county Friday and didn't see one cow between Gatesville and Brownwood, we seen some weaned calves here and there, there were probably some hiding from the heat, but we didn't see them.
The big difference between this year and last is the cows were a lot cheaper last year, we picked up some good cows that we could double, maybe triple the money now.

 

[Ouachita]

Good to see you back.

 

[GoWyo]

well...im back kinda....boards diff huh.....

drought
covid selloff

market is as high as it was a few yrs ago. never thought id see it this high again...

Drought, high input costs, age of cattle owner, good prices on weigh cows -- pressure is on to sell cows for anyone thinking about an exit from the business. Leads to lower cattle herd numbers, less calves for sale, and thankfully the demand for beef is strong to push calf prices more where they should be. Hopefully prices can hold for more than a year or two.

 

[SBMF 2015]

to push calf prices more where they should be.

Where should prices be? I'm all for everyone in the supply chain making money. But I'd rather make a little money every year than feast or famine. One producer told the fat cattle buyer that I sell to that he was making $800/hd on the finished cattle he was delivering now. Wow that's crazy. But then he told the buyer that he was going to go buy yearlings because he didn't want to pay taxes. To me that's a pretty short sighted theory. What happens if the bottom falls out?
What if cow calf guys have the same mentality? Could be a lot of new equipment defaulted on.
We all know the cure for high prices is high prices.

 

[GoWyo]

I don't know where prices should be, but selling 5-weight calves at $800-900/head or less doesn't pay the bills. $1500 calves allows an opportunity to stay in the game replacing some worn out junk equipment and keeping fences up even if I only make $1.50/hour doing it.

 

[SBMF 2015]

This was in my email today. Yesterday they had some 9wts gross over $2,400/hd. That's a tremendous investment. Most small to mid sized feedlots don't have the collateral to fill their yards at these prices.
I see this having a bad trickle down effect. To many of the little guys will end up on the wrong side of this and the fallowing year there will be that many less buyers for fdr cattle.

 

[Lucky]

View attachment 34602
This was in my email today. Yesterday they had some 9wts gross over $2,400/hd. That's a tremendous investment. Most small to mid sized feedlots don't have the collateral to fill their yards at these prices.
I see this having a bad trickle down effect. To many of the little guys will end up on the wrong side of this and the fallowing year there will be that many less buyers for fdr cattle.

What you say about feedlots securing funds for cattle at these prices is interesting. The last time cattle got really high like this I was needing to expand some. I called the banker and she said they were still loaning 80% on cattle at the higher prices. Luckily I got cold feet and waited a few years. I know allot of guys that got bit pretty hard, especially guys that jumped in because of high prices. The ones that got in thinking the calf prices would hold never saw those high prices on calves they sold. Hopefully this time around prices will hold for a few years. I'll take $6 bucks if they'll give it but honestly think $1.90 - 2.10 for feeders would be more sustainable for the long term.

 

[daneg]

Prices need to keep up with the high cost of fuel, fertilize, parts, and everything else needed to keep cattle. Sold some today it was a good sale, all prices in Canuck bucks and weights in pounds.

 

[tex452]

Drought, high input costs, age of cattle owner, good prices on weigh cows -- pressure is on to sell cows for anyone thinking about an exit from the business. Leads to lower cattle herd numbers, less calves for sale, and thankfully the demand for beef is strong to push calf prices more where they should be. Hopefully prices can hold for more than a year or two.

I was talking with some sale barn owners and they say the interest in the business is not there where it use to be, a lot of younger people just don't want to do it, I see more and more wildlife exemptions, a lot of people buy land for recreation.

 

[SBMF 2015]

What you say about feedlots securing funds for cattle at these prices is interesting. The last time cattle got really high like this I was needing to expand some. I called the banker and she said they were still loaning 80% on cattle at the higher prices. Luckily I got cold feet and waited a few years. I know allot of guys that got bit pretty hard, especially guys that jumped in because of high prices. The ones that got in thinking the calf prices would hold never saw those high prices on calves they sold. Hopefully this time around prices will hold for a few years. I'll take $6 bucks if they'll give it but honestly think $1.90 - 2.10 for feeders would be more sustainable for the long term.

The last time things got high I was visiting with an older producer. He had just bought a gooseneck load of yearlings and just couldn't understand why the bank was so willing to lend him the money. I told him it's real simple; the South 80 of his home farm is flat black $10,000+ acre ground. The bank would be plenty happy to lend money against that.

 

[farmerjan]

@dieselbeef .... glad to see you back.... Other than the crazy prices, how are things in your area? How is your son? Is he in high school or has it been so long he is out? Time flies....
Do you still have some cattle?

Our cow numbers are down a bit... and there are several at pasture that will take a one way trip this fall too... sold most heifers in the spring, and will cull heavy this fall again... take the money when we can get it.... and then when it drops off hopefully have a few things paid down so we can retain some more... buying a few here and there when we can find a few "odd ones"... have a sealed bunker full of corn silage, from last year so feed will not be an issue this year... we are very fortunate there... and we have made hay because we got some decent rains when we needed them after a very cool slow start.... but we are now in slight to moderate drought and the farmers just 20 miles north are dried up.... be a poor year for making milk on the dairies with the feed they are chopping...
You just take it as mother nature dishes it out...

 

[dave_shelby]

Nice to see you posting again.

High prices are a blessing considering the drought. We are selling off much of the herd and will sell off more if we don't get fall moisture. Hope that buying back in will be feasible, as we will be competing with everyone else. Dairy folks are in worse shape with milk prices.

That said we got a couple tenths yesterday and it's raining now.

 

[jltrent]

They are bringing what they should all along. The problem I see is input cost are going up and cattle prices want last.

 

[dieselbeef]

@dieselbeef .... glad to see you back.... Other than the crazy prices, how are things in your area? How is your son? Is he in high school or has it been so long he is out? Time flies....
Do you still have some cattle?

still got a dozen or so...getting lotta rain..fat cows..calfs are really looking good this yr and pices here are way high. gage is 11th grade. military school has done him well. getting his drivers lisc soon. permit for a yr in fl..dumb...
life hasn't been too good to me since my wife died in 16..been a hard road..some good things ..lotsa bad....its getting tiring
multiple accidents on the motorcycle/quads. house needed windows and barn is unsound from hurricane damage. falling down. my kawaskai mule needed an engine..6 mos without it. new truck i bought...2008 new to me. puked the engine a yr later. kitchen got flooded cuz a hose blew under the dishwasher. 50k and a yr later. trying to replace the falling barn with a metal building...setback after setback.....

 

[dieselbeef]

Arcadia Stockyard: Arcadia Stockyard Price Trends
	Week of September 6, 2023
	Steer # hd	Medium & Large Frame
	19	175 - 274	Avg. Wt. 241	250.00-380.00	Avg. 306.05
	33	275 - 349	Avg. Wt. 305	310.00-470.00	Avg, 351.13
	44	350 - 424	Avg. Wt. 373	280.00-410.00	Avg. 330.58
	53	425 - 499	Avg. Wt. 455	260.00-310.00	Avg. 274.43
	36	500 - 574	Avg. Wt. 537	237.50-265.00	Avg. 246.40
	43	575 - 700	Avg. Wt. 615	220.00-248.00	Avg. 233.52
	Steer # hd	Light & Medium Frame
	41	175 - 274	Avg. Wt. 224	125.00-250.00	Avg. 191.88
	67	275 - 349	Avg. Wt. 311	130.00-310.00	Avg. 227.27
	128	350 - 424	Avg. Wt. 397	155.00-280.00	Avg. 225.66
	84	425-499	Avg. Wt. 457	140.00-260.00	Avg. 208.25
	61	500 - 574	Avg. Wt. 531	135.00-237.50	Avg. 201.30
	50	575 - 700	Avg. Wt. 651	120.00-220.00	Avg. 183.42
	Heifers # hd	Medium & Large Frame
	21	175 - 274	Avg. Wt. 237	235.00-280.00	Avg. 257.75
	26	275 - 349	Avg. Wt. 315	242.50-280.00	Avg. 260.52
	47	350 - 424	Avg. Wt. 387	245.00-310.00	Avg. 255.63
	27	425 - 499	Avg. Wt. 457	235.00-255.00	Avg. 245.50
	27	500 - 574	Avg. Wt. 529	217.50-230.00	Avg. 221.35
	17	575 - 700	Avg. Wt. 619	210.00-220.00	Avg. 214.69
	Heifers # hd	Light & Medium Frame
	41	175 - 274	Avg. Wt 226	127.50-235.00	Avg. 180.18
	52	275-349	Avg. Wt. 309	150.00-240.00	Avg. 199.74
	104	350 - 424	Avg. Wt. 385	142.50-240.00	Avg. 195.03
	53	425 - 499	Avg. Wt. 459	145.00-235.00	Avg. 191.30
	37	500 - 574	Avg. Wt. 529	135.00-217.50	Avg. 186.46
	41	575 - 700	Avg. Wt. 638	105.00-210.00	Avg. 180.32
	58	Cows - Boners 1100-1900	109.00-123.50	Avg. 115.09
	125	Cows - Lean 850-1200	90.00-108.50	Avg. 100.52
	100	Low Dressing 800-1100	84.50-103.00	Avg. 93.84
	19	Shells 650-800	45.00-76.00	Avg. 67.00
	12	Bulls - High Dressing 1300-2000	122.00-148.00	Avg. 131.55
	7	Under 1300	1000-1299	84.00-133.00	Avg. 120.00
	3	Low Dressing Under 1100	84.00-112.50	Avg. 102.17
	Totals Wed 1702 Calves 1254 Cows 418 Bulls 30
	Slaughter Cows and Bulls were steady. to $2 Higher Feeder Steers and Feeder Heifers were steady to $25 Lower. Thank you for allowing us to market your cattle - Carl Jr

 

[Dave]

I hit a pretty good lick on those yearlings I sold. Three trailer loads of them. But after delivering the last load I stopped on my way home to fuel up. Diesel was up to $5.14 a gallon. $100 to fill up and the truck wasn't on empty. Same station the week before it was $4.77. Three weeks before across the border in Idaho it was $3.59. Prices are high but just barely above input cost.

 

[farmerjan]

Diesel is creeping up here too... over $4.50 a gal at most places and gas has gone from $3.29, to $3.49 here and $3.69 and $3.89 20 miles away.... Yeah, cattle prices are good... but comparably they are barely keeping up...
And did anyone pay much mind to the news that the UAW are looking for something like a 20% (or maybe it was closer to 40%) wage increase or something crazy??? Have heard that one of the auto companies have offered 10% increase....

 

[farmerjan]

Sorry things have continued to be tough since you lost your wife. Your son looks like he is growing up to be a strapping young man.... glad that school etc is going good for him...
Vehicle problems cost out the wazoo to fix nowadays....

 

[greybeard]

But I'd rather make a little money every year than feast or famine.

you in the wrong bidness for that.