Calf prices

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What this all means is that I'd be dumb to buy some cattle right now, correct?

You old timers wouldn't enter into the market at a time like this, would you? Will there be a summer slump on prices in Texas? I need some bred cows, but I can't really see how I'll make money on 1600 to 2000 for other peoples culls that are bred…
I will never say dumb or tell another producer what is best. Each situation is different. Now is a time that some I respect are considering other options than what they normally do. We retain our heifers rather than buy cows. We feel it works best for us. I know a producer who wanted too sell around 150 older cows. Think he ended up buying around 50 5-7 y:eek: cows and sold the oldest. Plans too sell the rest after weaning. Normally he would buy 3-4 y/o's. Another factor is does a producer have too borrow money and pay interest. Myself I wouldn't buy the $4,000.00 dollar heifer pairs selling. I would buy older bred cows that the calf should pay for and you have the cow you can sell if needed. But we retain ours so only buy a cow once in awhile to bring in new genetics.
 
I don't think I would jump into that light calf market right now. If I were buying calves right now I would certainly put the LRP on them. I am really considering putting LRP on the calves which are being born here now.
Dave each producer has too consider all options now. What is best depends on management and what that producer raises and markets. If cow/calf do they sell at weaning or retain. If a stocker there are many options. I talked to an older man last week. He said his son is buying lots of heavier cutter bulls now. Feel they have the most potential. We are cow/calf so don't plan to graze anything except what we raise.
 
With declining cow numbers and high prices, I wouldn't be buying steers unless people were asleep at the auction and missed an incredibly sweet deal.
Heifers are going to be in demand regardless of the market staying up or going down.
 
I don't think I would jump into that light calf market right now. If I were buying calves right now I would certainly put the LRP on them. I am really considering putting LRP on the calves which are being born here now.
😂😂 And I'm in the market for 100 little steers. 700 lb steers in Sept being valued at $4 right now, there is a good profit on $4.90 350 weights today.. I have only bought price insurance once but we use forward contracts a lot.
 
I will never say dumb or tell another producer what is best. Each situation is different. Now is a time that some I respect are considering other options than what they normally do. We retain our heifers rather than buy cows. We feel it works best for us. I know a producer who wanted too sell around 150 older cows. Think he ended up buying around 50 5-7 y:eek: cows and sold the oldest. Plans too sell the rest after weaning. Normally he would buy 3-4 y/o's. Another factor is does a producer have too borrow money and pay interest. Myself I wouldn't buy the $4,000.00 dollar heifer pairs selling. I would buy older bred cows that the calf should pay for and you have the cow you can sell if needed. But we retain ours so only buy a cow once in awhile to bring in new genetics.
Well, I was poor when I started because of COVID issues at my other job. But now no debt and don't need the bank.

But, for me, I just see risk in these high prices. I'm a tiny operation. Max I could run 13 head and not push my place. If industrialized, could try for 19 head. But I like wildlife, and I also want very low input costs, so I won't push it.

Destocked a bit because of the drought. Didn't feed one bale of hay to my current herd over the winter, as a tub and sparse stockpile along with good winter grass growth sufficed to get them through in decent body condition. In fact, I haven't spent any money on them since November. Also already bought the wind and rain mineral and loose salt to put out for them when the tub runs out, so I think I'll just let the old bank account rest for a while.

Still have a few heifers left over from destocking and enough head of mature cows to pay the taxes and such.

Don't really want to add thin cows to the herd right now either.

I'm thinking I just let my place rest and recover at least till July, then see where prices are then.
 
😂😂 And I'm in the market for 100 little steers. 700 lb steers in Sept being valued at $4 right now, there is a good profit on $4.90 350 weights today.. I have only bought price insurance once but we use forward contracts a lot.
Forward contract is another way to go. I just remember 2015 well enough that I would want to protect myself in some manner. That year I contracted in June. In July the market went south.
 
Well, I was poor when I started because of COVID issues at my other job. But now no debt and don't need the bank.

But, for me, I just see risk in these high prices. I'm a tiny operation. Max I could run 13 head and not push my place. If industrialized, could try for 19 head. But I like wildlife, and I also want very low input costs, so I won't push it.

Destocked a bit because of the drought. Didn't feed one bale of hay to my current herd over the winter, as a tub and sparse stockpile along with good winter grass growth sufficed to get them through in decent body condition. In fact, I haven't spent any money on them since November. Also already bought the wind and rain mineral and loose salt to put out for them when the tub runs out, so I think I'll just let the old bank account rest for a while.

Still have a few heifers left over from destocking and enough head of mature cows to pay the taxes and such.

Don't really want to add thin cows to the herd right now either.

I'm thinking I just let my place rest and recover at least till July, then see where prices are then.
I fully respect your decision. Most likely I would make a similar decision. Nice too see you mention your respect for your pastures. Many over stock then either have too buy hay or sell cows. We put out tubs. Our cows graze last years grass unless we have snow covering it up.
 
Forward contract is another way to go. I just remember 2015 well enough that I would want to protect myself in some manner. That year I contracted in June. In July the market went south.
I bought 200 h/c to dodge a tax bill fall of 2015. They worked! 😂

We got our purchase dollars back and lost the feed. Accountant said we were still $40k better off.
 
I fully respect your decision. Most likely I would make a similar decision. Nice to see you mention your respect for your pastures. Many over stock then either have to buy hay or sell cows. We put out tubs. Our cows graze last years grass unless we have snow covering it up.
Tubs really work. Have been using them for the past 18 months. First during winter and then during the drought.

They are expensive, but so far I have found that, in central Texas, you can get by on winter stockpile and 30% cooked protein tubs and a bit of winter green just fine. And the tubs are convenient. The cows get protein every day without you going out there, and they don't really need minerals and as many vitamins when they have the tub, as those are added as well. That really helps my operation.

But I think I'm going to refine my model a little bit and try to store some round bales in my old barn (plan on buying during years of abundant hay production in my area) for up to three years at a time. If the winter grass doesn't do well in a given year, I'll probably put out hay in January and February as long as it's financially sustainable.
 
I bought 200 h/c to dodge a tax bill fall of 2015. They worked! 😂

We got our purchase dollars back and lost the feed. Accountant said we were still $40k better off.
A friend of mine told me that he bought 2 semi loads of 500 pound steers in late 2014. By the time they were ready to go in 2015 he lost $450 a head on them. That will set you back for a while.
 
A friend of mine told me that he bought 2 semi loads of 500 pound steers in late 2014. By the time they were ready to go in 2015 he lost $450 a head on them. That will set you back for a while.
I agree about learning lessons. I just have never gotten anywhere looking in the rear view mirror.
 
When they got done selling stock cows I got up and left. They started selling feeder calves. But as I walked out and again as I walked by to the office, the brand inspector, and the restroom I always heard the auctioneer saying $3 some thing. Knowing this sale, the order they sell in, the time of the year, and the cattle I would expect to see there my educated guess is they would all be over 500 pounds.
 
Son talked to auctioneer friend about the calves we have to sell, timing and everything... JS said to sell any and everything we got to sell... he said he is selling all his feeder stock...
We worked through and sorted a bunch yesterday, was going to take them tomorrow but calling for snow Friday night... Son has got to work 7-12, then go back to work at 8... Now saying 2-5 inches... was only a possibility of 1-2 ..... so we will hold them another week... too much to do tomorrow and we like to stay when they sell...I want to put out a few extra rolls of hay so don't have to tear up the fields if it gets slick or mushy... for a few days... and I have got to move some small sq bales up to the barn for the calves that are on bottles.... and just weaned ones..
They will keep another week at the farm, been on silage and such, so no big deal... Got a couple cull cows and a bull that is stifled, got some age, to go...
There doesn't seem to be any dropping off in price with the cattle numbers being so low...
 
Son talked to auctioneer friend about the calves we have to sell, timing and everything... JS said to sell any and everything we got to sell... he said he is selling all his feeder stock...
We worked through and sorted a bunch yesterday, was going to take them tomorrow but calling for snow Friday night... Son has got to work 7-12, then go back to work at 8... Now saying 2-5 inches... was only a possibility of 1-2 ..... so we will hold them another week... too much to do tomorrow and we like to stay when they sell...I want to put out a few extra rolls of hay so don't have to tear up the fields if it gets slick or mushy... for a few days... and I have got to move some small sq bales up to the barn for the calves that are on bottles.... and just weaned ones..
They will keep another week at the farm, been on silage and such, so no big deal... Got a couple cull cows and a bull that is stifled, got some age, to go...
There doesn't seem to be any dropping off in price with the cattle numbers being so low...
Its hard on him to work the 12 hour nights and have cattle. I worked Monday night and it messed me up for 2 days. Figure i will work tomorrow night also.
 
Glad cattle folk are making money.

But you're also making my point. I think I'm officially priced out this market.

@Warren Allison, I think I'm gonna be forced to go the Corriente route for replacements:).
Well, it just so happens that I may be getting 102...or 112...I forget what he said.....this weekend. All are solid, too...about 70% of them black. They are all bred...but the man had 1 Angus bull with the. Calving window is going to be from the 1st of March til end of June or so. I don't need all that many. But, where you are located you can probably find plenty there locally.
 
@kenny thomas Did you have snow or icy stuff Monday night? We stayed well above freezing and only had rain... and not too terribly much... total 1 1/2 inches...
Yeah the nights can be tough, but he preferred them....he could come off at 8, go feed for a couple hours and then go to bed if he had to go back in... or stay up and do stuff then go to bed early that night after... except now he is the "head" super at the headquarters with the boss still out on medical... so he is pulling 12-16 hrs and more with the weather issues... making schedules and all that, pulling the day shift for the boss, and then staying over for the night shift for awhile and/or going back in early in the morning... and I do not know how to run the skid loader and really do not want to do it in the bunk in the barn... but I do take the bale truck and feed hay at some of the pastures and such...
 
Stayed home with the old lady all week, because she is sick. I watched auctions online all day Wednesday and today watching for head cows..breds and pairs and 3N1s. But, I'd see bottle calves, etc., as they usually sell before or after head cattle. Watched some steers and heifers by the pound, but not for long. Prices were literally all over the place. Watched sales in KY, MO, OK, SD, Minn, and NM. Some of the higher selling cows are also some of the worst. And some of the cheapest cows are the best I saw all day. It just depended on where in the country the auction was. The cheapest I saw were i the KY sales, but also as a whole, they were by far the best cows. Best place to sell, as usual, was the MO sales. They brought the highest prices, and had some good looking cattle. Moving west, the further west you went, the more the quality suffered, except for one of the SD sales. Prices weren't as good as MO, but closer to those prices than the KY prices. I think it will be a wild ride all of this year and into 2025. If I don't change my mind before Saturday, I may be selling those Plummer cows with the Chi-Angus calves, and buying back something I know I can make money on, if calves drop to $1.50/lb.
 

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