Predicting the future

[Stocker Steve]

My goals are to make money so I can pay taxes so I can buy phones for people. /quote]

But how many phones? This could swing control in congress.

 

[backhoeboogie]

Wal - Mart had 22 bullets today. You mean the government is not going to help me? :shock:

I've already been to Wal-Mart this year. Twice!

 

[rockridgecattle]

The prices are scary high here too. No one has seen the likes. We just sold an older bull and got over 2100 for him. Can't even hazard a guess what breeding bulls will cost. The guy who manages our action mart says their is a huge demand for ground beef...it's what the average person can afford.
I think once these higher prices hit the consumer, they will stop buying or regulate what they buy even with chicken and pork's high prices.

Honey has gone through the roof too. When we got in the price (2005)was 86 cents a pound with a double brood hive averaging $100 Now honey is at $1.76 a pound for 2013 stock and 2014 prices still expected to climb and hives, double brood over $250 a hive.

Everything is climbing...when the consumer can't pay, then it will drop.

Bez, north interlake land prices are some of the cheapest in Canada. Last I heard quarter section of land (160 acres) of cleared seeded pasture went for $40,000...that was high.
Our poorer quarters are assessed under $20,000. Bush, swamp, pasture land.

A guy came out to asses some land in the area. The fellow assessed the land between 85- 100 000 a quarter, seeded land. The owner took the assessed value to the bank and wanted a loan. The banker said go fish. The assessed value is no where near actual. The fellow who did the assessing did not base the values on what farmers are paying, but rather what business are paying to either log, mine for limestone or gravel. No farmer out here could afford or would pay those prices.

 

[Bez__]

The prices are scary high here too. No one has seen the likes. We just sold an older bull and got over 2100 for him. Can't even hazard a guess what breeding bulls will cost. The guy who manages our action mart says their is a huge demand for ground beef...it's what the average person can afford.
I think once these higher prices hit the consumer, they will stop buying or regulate what they buy even with chicken and pork's high prices.

Honey has gone through the roof too. When we got in the price (2005)was 86 cents a pound with a double brood hive averaging $100 Now honey is at $1.76 a pound for 2013 stock and 2014 prices still expected to climb and hives, double brood over $250 a hive.

Everything is climbing...when the consumer can't pay, then it will drop.

Bez, north interlake land prices are some of the cheapest in Canada. Last I heard quarter section of land (160 acres) of cleared seeded pasture went for $40,000...that was high.
Our poorer quarters are assessed under $20,000. Bush, swamp, pasture land.

A guy came out to asses some land in the area. The fellow assessed the land between 85- 100 000 a quarter, seeded land. The owner took the assessed value to the bank and wanted a loan. The banker said go fish. The assessed value is no where near actual. The fellow who did the assessing did not base the values on what farmers are paying, but rather what business are paying to either log, mine for limestone or gravel. No farmer out here could afford or would pay those prices.

We are seriously looking and may pull the trigger this year - if land prices keep going up we simply cannot afford to not take some profit from this place.

Big step though.

Depending upon the ground, we need a half to a section - but with your Interlake pricing we could cash out at 10 quarters and still have some to play with

Bez

 

[Aaron]

Not to say anything bad about the Interlake, but ex-neighbor's paternal family came from around Eriksdale. 'Cheap land, but lots of rocks, lowland/water and mosquitoes', he would say when I thought that would be a good area to start up.

 

[rockridgecattle]

Aaron, you are right, we do have Stoney ground. Hat said,there are pockets....Gypsumville, Moosehorn are where there is some of the best black soil for grain growing. Our area is seeing a shift from livestock to leaf cutter bees, alfalfa seed, canola, soya beans, Faba beans (sp), trefoil, seed production. And that is in our Stoney ground. Yes guys own a stone picker, yes some own stone rakes. But we are clay soil based which is good ground. Some land is only fit for grazing. But some land has grown some pretty amazing seed crops.

 

[backhoeboogie]

Here is a good article that just came out on yahoo finance :

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/meat-eate ... 00856.html

20% increase is Bear's cost for pork in one month to supply his restaurant is not deflation by any means. Increases in his beef cost. He has to raise prices.

How many times have we discussed fuel cutting in to the bottom dollar?

We are selling calves for big dollars right now. Imagine if you didn't own any cows. Imagine depending on a SS check each month that is fixed. That is the reality for a lot of people.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Here is a good article that just came out on yahoo finance :

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/meat-eate ... 00856.html

20% increase is Bear's cost for pork in one month to supply his restaurant is not deflation by any means. Increases in his beef cost. He has to raise prices.

How many times have we discussed fuel cutting in to the bottom dollar?

We are selling calves for big dollars right now. Imagine if you didn't own any cows. Imagine depending on a SS check each month that is fixed. That is the reality for a lot of people.

Boogie I don't have a clue how some of the elderly are keeping the lights on much less eating well.
Little blue haired lady down the road draw's 800 a month thats it.

 

[backhoeboogie]

Boogie I don't have a clue how some of the elderly are keeping the lights on much less eating well.
Little blue haired lady down the road draw's 800 a month thats it.

An old man worked for me back in '81 - '82 up in Colorado. He had retired from Honeywell in '72. He owned 2 homes. One to rent and one to live in. He owned two boats. He loved to fish. He had a modest pension and SS. He thought he was set. He was frugal. His wife had some minor health issues and he was broke by '79.

I had that old codger in charge of parts and tools in a trailer. He ran things like a hawk. Only problem he had was hearing. You had to yell when you talked to him. His wife used to send boxes of cookies a few times each week.

I have never forgotten that old codger's advice. He was prudent in his spending.

We are going to have to take care of these elderly widows just like the good book tells us to do.

 

[Stocker Steve]

'Cheap land, but lots of rocks, lowland/water and mosquitoes', he would say when I thought that would be a good area to start up.

Just like NE Minnesota, except for the cheap part.

 

[Aaron]

'Cheap land, but lots of rocks, lowland/water and mosquitoes', he would say when I thought that would be a good area to start up.

Just like NE Minnesota, except for the cheap part.

More like NW Minnesota. Never choked on so many of Minnesota's state bird as in the Lancaster area. And the border crossing straight north of there is in a pure swamp surrounded by bush, so no air flow. Would hate to work there.

 

[Stocker Steve]

'Cheap land, but lots of rocks, lowland/water and mosquitoes', he would say when I thought that would be a good area to start up.

Just like NE Minnesota, except for the cheap part.

More like NW Minnesota. Never choked on so many of Minnesota's state bird as in the Lancaster area. And the border crossing straight north of there is in a pure swamp surrounded by bush, so no air flow. Would hate to work there.

Is the goose hunting good there, or do they save shot guns for the state bird?

 

[Commercialfarmer]

Here is a good article that just came out on yahoo finance :

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/meat-eate ... 00856.html

20% increase is Bear's cost for pork in one month to supply his restaurant is not deflation by any means. Increases in his beef cost. He has to raise prices.

How many times have we discussed fuel cutting in to the bottom dollar?

We are selling calves for big dollars right now. Imagine if you didn't own any cows. Imagine depending on a SS check each month that is fixed. That is the reality for a lot of people.

Agree, look at equipment costs, land costs and diesel. If beef has increased in line with costs, then it is even. Above, then it is too high. Below, then it isn't high enough. I don't think it is high enough.

A regional feedlot that has been in business before I was born is shutting down this summer. They can't turn a profit. I don't know what that means.

One thing to keep in mind, the magical number isn't total number of head. It is total number of lbs of beef produced. They aren't one and the same.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Here is a good article that just came out on yahoo finance :

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/meat-eate ... 00856.html

20% increase is Bear's cost for pork in one month to supply his restaurant is not deflation by any means. Increases in his beef cost. He has to raise prices.

How many times have we discussed fuel cutting in to the bottom dollar?

We are selling calves for big dollars right now. Imagine if you didn't own any cows. Imagine depending on a SS check each month that is fixed. That is the reality for a lot of people.

Agree, look at equipment costs, land costs and diesel. If beef has increased in line with costs, then it is even. Above, then it is too high. Below, then it isn't high enough. I don't think it is high enough.

A regional feedlot that has been in business before I was born is shutting down this summer. They can't turn a profit. I don't know what that means.

One thing to keep in mind, the magical number isn't total number of head. It is total number of lbs of beef produced. They aren't one and the same.

This business is all about input cost that is the only handle we really have.