Predicting the future

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Bez__":pel4vy1p said:
Aaron":pel4vy1p said:
EverythIng is steady as she goes here. Always keep back heifers and always cull hard. All my older neighbours are now contemplating calling it quits this year, so I could see a lot of opportunity for expansion in the future.

Aaron - our land sells for about $8-12K per acre - what would a 200 plus acre operation in your area be worth today with reasonable buildings, fences and a liveable house

We could toss this place for about a million and keep darned near all of it - just wondering.

Thanks

Bez

Well my southern neighbor sold the cows a month ago. Looking to rent and eventually sell the farm. 100 year old operation (close to 1000 acres at one point in time) that always was a farm run and paid for with cows. He has an 80 acre parcel that is 1 of 3 parcels that make up a 160. We already own a 70 acre parcel (I hate when quarters are cut up). Of that 80 of his, 30 is hay and the rest cut-over bush pasture. I value the pasture at $100 an acre (needs a dozer to it still) and the hay ground at $300-$500 (possible premium because it is next-door). I really want him to sell it to me, but I will relent and rent if he goes that route.

Anyways, to answer your question, $1000 an acre will buy any type of operation in this area. You want a $400,000 house on 500 acres of land?, $500,000 will buy it. You said 200 acres, so $200,000 will buy you 200 acres and a maybe a great house. However you want to figure it, around here, when people pay $1000/acre, your either paying a premium for the land and the house is free, or your paying for the house and the land is free. A lot of places have neglected fences, but decent outbuildings (I am just the opposite).

Mennonite bought my western neighbors place - fences are terrible and outbuildings were in ok shape - 320 acres, 200 clear - good water and a house that would be an easy $400,000+ in a town (2600 square feet, 2x8 stud walls), all for $310,000. But I think he could be bought out if you even came close to matching the money - he's about the dumbest farmer I ever met and I am amazed he still has enough money to keep the lights on in the house.

Got a lot of Bruce and Grey county guys moving up here buying land. Only good thing about them is they might possibly keep the Mennonites on their toes. But I am scared if they start driving land prices crazy high. Although these Easterners have come in many times in decades past, going to show us hicks how to farm, and very few survive the North and the isolation - compared to southern Ontario.
 
Stocker Steve":9l2i1dfv said:
Bez__":9l2i1dfv said:
our land sells for about $8-12K per acre - what would a 200 plus acre operation in your area be worth today with reasonable buildings, fences and a liveable house

Now that we have Obamacare will there be a flood of Canadians moving south?

I doubt it. Even though it's not the fastest option in the world, it sure is nice going into the doctor here and not getting the bill.

Although that in itself is a problem, because it doesn't allow for the general public to scrutinize the spending of healthcare in this country.

But not knowing the costs is maybe a good thing, because otherwise you would soon have people saying that healthcare should be free to the 'healthy' people and deny it to the 'unhealthy'.

I have always like the idea of user fees for healthcare in this country though. Tax the abusers that go into the ER for every sniffle and cough. But it will never happen.

What I really don't care for in Obamacare is the regulations forcing you to be covered.
 
backhoeboogie":3h1yy44x said:
We are headed to another Carter era inflation rate. My opinion. Its gonna hurt people on fixed income. It'll be good for people deep in debt. Middle income people will be thrust into higher tax brackets and have less overall buying power. A few years from now we may be saying, "I could have bought that land for............."

I respectfully disagree. I think the economists are a bit wiser now. Conditions are completely different than the 70's. Everyone has too much at stake to let either inflation or interest rates get way out of control.

Folks selling gold want everyone to run scared....

short form answer to a long form question and jmho.
Jim
 
Nesikep":t9bmuowa said:
Aaron.. I might have to move out there!... Come out with 500K and some cattle buyin' money

I've heard this area called the 'last frontier' a few times. One interesting note, a past neighbor to the north of me was the last person in Canada to receive a land grant under the Dominion Lands Act...in the 1950's. Up to that point, this area was still being settled by homesteaders.
 
Aaron":1dpk3vat said:
I've heard this area called the 'last frontier' a few times.

Looking ahead - - do you think any of the livestock and grain growing trends south of the river that will apply to your area, or are they driven by ag bills and other government regulations?
 
SRBeef":3ihnp28h said:
backhoeboogie":3ihnp28h said:
We are headed to another Carter era inflation rate. My opinion. Its gonna hurt people on fixed income. It'll be good for people deep in debt. Middle income people will be thrust into higher tax brackets and have less overall buying power. A few years from now we may be saying, "I could have bought that land for............."

I respectfully disagree. I think the economists are a bit wiser now. Conditions are completely different than the 70's. Everyone has too much at stake to let either inflation or interest rates get way out of control.

Folks selling gold want everyone to run scared....

short form answer to a long form question and jmho.
Jim

I hope you are right. :)

They are attempting to put minimum wage out of sight. Gasoline and fuel prices themselves have exceeded inflation in the past decade because of regulation. Food prices are way up. Taxes have increased. Land values have decreased with the economy wrecked.

If everyone's wages increase they will put all of us in a higher tax bracket(s). Hence it is to the government spending snakes' benefit to raise wages. If they can manipulate higher income they will.

For the sake of the elderly, I sincerely hope you are correct.
 
Stocker Steve":1t7dr4m3 said:
Aaron":1t7dr4m3 said:
I've heard this area called the 'last frontier' a few times.

Looking ahead - - do you think any of the livestock and grain growing trends south of the river that will apply to your area, or are they driven by ag bills and other government regulations?

Not sure what you mean by that. The livestock industry is dead south of the river in LOW county. You know this even from the tour. No real infrastructure left and no one new coming in. Grain is a different story, and our area has followed those trends over the years (corn/canola/soybeans).

The biggest difference between the two sides of the river is price of land. Told by a fellow in Swift that the land north of MN 11 highway sells continually for between 2200 and 3500 an acre. Big difference from the land around here, which is the same land type.
 
SRBeef":76hl08u6 said:
backhoeboogie":76hl08u6 said:
We are headed to another Carter era inflation rate. My opinion. Its gonna hurt people on fixed income. It'll be good for people deep in debt. Middle income people will be thrust into higher tax brackets and have less overall buying power. A few years from now we may be saying, "I could have bought that land for............."

I respectfully disagree. I think the economists are a bit wiser now. Conditions are completely different than the 70's. Everyone has too much at stake to let either inflation or interest rates get way out of control.

Folks selling gold want everyone to run scared....

short form answer to a long form question and jmho.
Jim
Economist don't make the decisions....they simply try to explain and make excuses for the results. :shock:
 
TexasBred":26nkkql7 said:
Economist don't make the decisions....they simply try to explain and make excuses for the results. :shock:

:) They never agree with one another either.

If a doctor graduates the bottom of his class, we all still call him "doctor". :)
 
SRBeef":17xueto5 said:
backhoeboogie":17xueto5 said:
We are headed to another Carter era inflation rate. My opinion. Its gonna hurt people on fixed income. It'll be good for people deep in debt. Middle income people will be thrust into higher tax brackets and have less overall buying power. A few years from now we may be saying, "I could have bought that land for............."

I respectfully disagree. I think the economists are a bit wiser now. Conditions are completely different than the 70's. Everyone has too much at stake to let either inflation or interest rates get way out of control.

Folks selling gold want everyone to run scared....

short form answer to a long form question and jmho.
Jim

That is where you and I disagree we had a generation that was still in the workforce in the 70's that had lived through
the depression fought WWII, Korean. This generation knew what hard times looked like and how to live through them.
This generation saved like no other and paid cash like no other as they had seen the banks fail and families loose everything.

My crystal ball thinks we are much more fragile today and just one Oh Shyt from rioting in the street.
Let Krogers shelves run empty are your plastic card not work or far worse stop the welfare and it is on
every man for himself.
The current workforce or non-workforce has been just like the grasshopper not the ant.
 
The farm shakeout of the late 70's-early 80's started when Jimmuh Carter decided we could no longer sell Soybeans to the Soviet Union, cause they invaded Afghanistan. Beans were around 13-14$/bu when that started and sank to $4.50. Made a Republican out of me. Of course, we could look at Nixon's price controls on beef. That was wise economic policy, for sure.
The common thread, is that no matter which party controls the govt. your biggest problem is the government.
Sell everything you can at today's prices, because sooner or later the govt. is gonna screw you.
 
john250":3siee558 said:
The common thread, is that no matter which party controls the govt. your biggest problem is the government.

I'm still waiting on my phone but I have a meeting with one of those govmint folks in the morning and I bet they are going to hand deliver my new phone and give me a personalized tutorial on how to work it. :mrgreen:
 
Jogeephus":p8rsd4z4 said:
I'm still waiting on my phone but I have a meeting with one of those govmint folks in the morning and I bet they are going to hand deliver my new phone and give me a personalized tutorial on how to work it. :mrgreen:

Jo, if it is not a Galaxy S5 be sure to yell and scream discrimination till you get one.
 
Jogeephus":76vt485i said:
Caustic Burno":76vt485i said:
So cheap meat is not out there.

I saw the same thing. I couldn't believe how high meat was.

Good point about the imports.

I've also heard talk about a protein shortage in the future. I wonder if this is real and what effect this will have if it is.


I hear llama is pretty cheap right now.
 
The Farm Report talking heads last week were focused bird flu and pig flu and who knew flue all reducing feed usage. So we will be tight on protein for a while, and we can choose how to react to that. The big question for livestock producers is do you fold 'um, expand, or hold 'um ?

This really gets down to a goal thing. How would having no herd, or 2X the herd, effect your goals ?
 
My goals are to make money so I can pay taxes so I can buy phones for people.

Don't see how owning 20 cattle or 200 is any different. Either way it requires essentially the same amount of time devotion but the biggest difference I see is the possibility of making or losing a greater sum of money.
 

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