Hang on tight

[JMJ Farms]

Hey, it could be worse. A 500# calf could be bringing $500 like they were back when we got in, instead of $750 like they are right now.

For the record, NCBA lost all of my respect when they sided with the government on NAIS.

Been several 500 pound calves here bring close to $500 this week.

I would be very proud to get 750 on 500 pound heifers right now

I'd be happy to get it on steers. Best of the best 5 weight steers brought $1.25 this week. Average more like $1.10-$1.15. And we ain't even hit the seasonal low period.

 

[Jessica06]

Were they good ones? That's about what black med/lg #1's are bringing around here.

You can get a 500 pound heifer for not much over a dollar.

We're keeping all of our heifers, and I've heard of a few others doing the same. Doesn't make much sense to take a good heifer to the sale to just give them away. Nice black ones are bringing 10-15/cwt more than charolais crosses, but that's still not enough for us to let go of any of them.

 

[Bigfoot]

Hey, it could be worse. A 500# calf could be bringing $500 like they were back when we got in, instead of $750 like they are right now.

For the record, NCBA lost all of my respect when they sided with the government on NAIS.

Been several 500 pound calves here bring close to $500 this week.

I would be very proud to get 750 on 500 pound heifers right now

If I don't change my mind, I'm gonna keep every heifer this year. Might be a sprinklin of em not pelvic measure out, but I doubt it. So, if anybody needs a bred heifer next fall see me.

 

[Jessica06]

Just glad we weren't one of the ones that bought in 2 years ago spending $3500-4000 on bred heifers. Yikes.

 

[bball]

Just glad we weren't one of the ones that bought in 2 years ago spending $3500-4000 on bred heifers. Yikes.

Amen to that! Few folks around here who are more than concerned...

 

[Caustic Burno]

Just glad we weren't one of the ones that bought in 2 years ago spending $3500-4000 on bred heifers. Yikes.

Amen to that! Few folks around here who are more than concerned...

I have yet to see anything new
The higher the high the lower the low in the cycle.
This bust is not as bad as the one in the 70's lot of cattle bought at 16% interest rates along with land financed with money from failed S&L's.
Land went bust in that mess as well.

 

[Ol' 243]

I've been buying in, spending everything I can spare to get more quality heifers. I hope I'm right.

 

[Caustic Burno]

I've been buying in, spending everything I can spare to get more quality heifers. I hope I'm right.

+1

 

[yakker]

Been several 500 pound calves here bring close to $500 this week.

I would be very proud to get 750 on 500 pound heifers right now

If I don't change my mind, I'm gonna keep every heifer this year. Might be a sprinklin of em not pelvic measure out, but I doubt it. So, if anybody needs a bred heifer next fall see me.

That's what a lot of people did last fall and there is more cattle in the US this year than last year. Here's my prediction for what it's worth:
45% chance of hitting the low next spring at about 10 points lower and then stabilizing.
45% chance of the cattle market continuing to go down for another year before stabilizing.
10% chance of making America great again and prices stabilize in November! :tiphat:
I know one think, we are not going to see 2014 prices for a while!
op: op: op:

 

[Nesikep]

I remember not too long ago (2005?) getting $.80 CAD for nice 5wt heifers, and some of the eastern guys (Aaron) had it worse.
I agree that the financed guys who bought high are in for some real tough times here... I'm glad I sold a bunch of culls last year, have 1 to go for sure this fall, and I'm debating if I should give the heifer that had a C section a second chance.. I get squat for her now and she bred the first time around... Figure there are worse gambles out there.

Would have been nice to get $1440 for a 375 lb dink for a few more years, but that's the way farming is.. a year or two of good prices and you get to scramble for a decade waiting for it again

 

[TexasBred]

The cattle market is taking a beating and we haven't hit the seasonal lows.

I'm hoping on a spring rally but not counting on it

The kicker is the unknown
Imports/exports and so on ...

Just getting back to more historical prices. The last couple of years spoiled everybody.

 

[Brute 23]

The cattle market is taking a beating and we haven't hit the seasonal lows.

I'm hoping on a spring rally but not counting on it

The kicker is the unknown
Imports/exports and so on ...

Just getting back to more historical prices. The last couple of years spoiled everybody.

I agree. Like some one said in 05 we were getting .80 and it was a drought. IMO we are still walking in high cotton.

 

[bball]

The cumulative rate of inflation since 2005 is approx 23%, so that .80 cents in 2005 is .99 cents today. So, basically, when beef is bringing a buck a lb today, it's just like getting that .80 back in 2005. Questions arise about land values and inputs increasing at 23% also. If it costs the average producer $1.50 per day to keep the factory running, when prices slip below $1.09/lb on a 5 wt, that producer is losing money.

 

[Bigfoot]

I was raised poor. Had times in my life with plenty. I've had and I've had not. I know which one I like better. I'll probably go back to the girl I brought to the dance. Backgrounding.

 

[Aaron]

The cumulative rate of inflation since 2005 is approx 23%, so that .80 cents in 2005 is .99 cents today. So, basically, when beef is bringing a buck a lb today, it's just like getting that .80 back in 2005. Questions arise about land values and inputs increasing at 23% also. If it costs the average producer $1.50 per day to keep the factory running, when prices slip below $1.09/lb on a 5 wt, that producer is losing money.

Producers have lost money for years. So many stabilize their income with off-farm jobs that majority don't understand what your talking about when you can't pay the utility bill or property taxes because calf prices aren't high enough - they have no concept of the struggle to survive. I don't know if I got .80 for anything in 2005. Maybe the best steers. Heifers were in the .60 range and cows were .10-.30. Just glad I didn't get crazy with the spending during these last couple of years. Two years of hard prices will wipe out a lot of the young guys in the industry. Lots of land and shiny metal has been bought in that time.

It's the start of the cowboy races. :cowboy: Grab the tail of your best cow and see if you can make it through to the other side.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Well I hauled this morning

 

[bball]

Well I hauled this morning

To the barn? Or did you bring something home?

 

[Caustic Burno]

Hauled a 18 year old cow and a load of calves. Teeth still good on the old girl utter was breaking down

 

[Caustic Burno]

Calves avg weight 450 high brought 1.60 low 1.57 steer calves
Heifers 1.45
Cull cow .60

 

[bball]

That's nothing to be too upset about CB. On the calf's anyway. Would have like to seen a little more on the cull...