2023 Cow Crystal Ball

[Stocker Steve]

Talking heads are saying beef prices look good in the next couple years. They have been saying that for a while and will one day be correct.

Looked at doing some additional bred heifers late this spring after the rains came. Big open heifers in smaller lots were U$S 1200. Estimated bull bred values were only $1500 this fall - - for a $2.50 per day gross with 100% success. Fall price seemed low, but then I found out we were already getting cows from the SW. Jockeys claim they can truck (smaller) cows to the artic vortex for $100 a head.

Seems like the simple re stocking play is to re home some young cows?

 

[bird dog]

In 2014 the cattle gurus said it would take 3 to 5 years to build back the herd so we would have good prices until then. It lasted 2 years with the 2nd year not as good as the first.
Be cautious as the consumer is getting pinched and high dollar beef is easy to pass by in favor of pork or chicken.

 

[fnfarms1]

I foresee decent prices like we currently have. Anything past this current market has so many factors though. Imported beef, economy/wages, input cost, weather etc.

right now though with ppl selling off herds I would say young cows would be the smart play, faster return already bred, plus less risk in first calf heifers. Other than not knowing bulls or genetics, seems like no brainer. Quality heifers seems the better play if their cheap or retaining your own later. Gets hard to retain if we see 2012-14 prices though. Happened to me, lately my starter cows are aging out and I didn't keep heifers 2012-16. After that payments etc made it hard to keep them, just now getting ahead and input cost are making retaining hard

 

[Peace]

In 2014 the cattle gurus said it would take 3 to 5 years to build back the herd so we would have good prices until then. It lasted 2 years with the 2nd year not as good as the first.
Be cautious as the consumer is getting pinched and high dollar beef is easy to pass by in favor of pork or chicken.

Have you looked at the price of pork or chicken in a grocery store lately...they're not a cheap date either.

 

[tex452]

I foresee decent prices like we currently have. Anything past this current market has so many factors though. Imported beef, economy/wages, input cost, weather etc.

right now though with ppl selling off herds I would say young cows would be the smart play, faster return already bred, plus less risk in first calf heifers. Other than not knowing bulls or genetics, seems like no brainer. Quality heifers seems the better play if their cheap or retaining your own later. Gets hard to retain if we see 2012-14 prices though. Happened to me, lately my starter cows are aging out and I didn't keep heifers 2012-16. After that payments etc made it hard to keep them, just now getting ahead and input cost are making retaining hard

Pastures are emptying fast here.
I have some grass and hay.
We have been buying wet bag 2-5 yo some are bred some not pp.
we are putting some nice thin young cows together for resale next spring, if we are able to let them go. Lol.
If the price is right I'm sure we will move them. If not we will hold on to them.

 

[SBMF 2015]

Have you looked at the price of pork or chicken in a grocery store lately...they're not a cheap date either.

That's our saving grace right now. If chicken was cheap that's what families would be eating.

I did some break evens on back grounding some yearlings last night. Lot of "ifs" but a person could pencil in almost a 10% profit over expenses. That looks pretty good compared to some years.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I did some break evens on back grounding some yearlings last night. Lot of "ifs" but a person could pencil in almost a 10% profit over expenses. That looks pretty good compared to some years.

How heavy?

Did you include yardage?

 

[SBMF 2015]

How heavy?

Did you include yardage?

Green 7-8 weight bulls, add two rounds of shots, worm, band, implant. 90-120days on feed, sell as a group. Didn't figure yardage but did include 10% interest which is high for now.
Sorry I didn't figure out how to shrink the graph. Like anything right now, if one dies your screwed.

Breakeven Buying Price Worksheet
Selling weight after shrink (pay-weight)			900​
Expected selling price ($/cwt)				$145.00​
Average Daily Gain (pay-to-pay)				1.66​
Feeding cost of gain ($/cwt)				$100.00​
Interest rate on feeder					10.00%​
Percent death loss*					0.00%​
Costs per head (trucking, etc.)**				$25.00​
Desired profit per head					$100.00​
* Enter ONLY if death loss is NOT included in feeding cost of gain, otherwise enter zero.
** Do not enter any costs included in feeding cost of gain.
		Selling Price
Purchase		$139.00​	$141.00​	$143.00​	$145.00​	$147.00​	$149.00​	$151.00​
Weight1​		Breakeven Purchase Price2​
700		134.57​	137.06​	139.55​	142.04​	144.53​	147.02​	149.51​
750		133.29​	135.64​	137.98​	140.32​	142.66​	145.00​	147.35​
800		132.24​	134.45​	136.67​	138.88​	141.09​	143.31​	145.52​
850		131.37​	133.47​	135.57​	137.68​	139.78​	141.88​	143.98​
900		N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
950		N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1000		N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

 

[Lee VanRoss]

Friday @ Dunlap
209 heifers 631# @ 1.68 +
39 steers 822# @1.77 +
51 heifers 718# @174.+
83 heifers 593# @1.80
43 steers 785# @1.75+
Never checked receipts but I feel comfortable in estimating over 5000 head (No Cows or Bulls) Most green or gold tagged.
Watched the ring for little while then spent some time in the office and restaurant. They also have video capability.
It is a class A facility with world championship auctioneers. Good people. I never sold or bought, just making the rounds..

 

[Stocker Steve]

Thanks for sharing the details. I was always impressed by Harlan' inability to show a profit with backgrounding. budgets He had several consistent assumptions that make it so:

- heavy feeders (with a lower VOG)
- charging for yardage (instead of zero OH)
- using grain at exchange pricing (instead of taking benefit of local basis or by products)

I used to do OK on light weight calves with an average of 3% death loss, but more buyers are after them now. I blame Draxin usage and sell-buy classes. What would your grid show for 4 wt. or 6 wt. bulls? BTOs can have the 500-to-550-pound steers.

 

[SBMF 2015]

Thanks for sharing the details. I was always impressed by Harlan' inability to show a profit with backgrounding. budgets He had several consistent assumptions that make it so:

- heavy feeders (with a lower VOG)
- charging for yardage (instead of zero OH)
- using grain at exchange pricing (instead of taking benefit of local basis or by products)

I used to do OK on light weight calves with an average of 3% death loss, but more buyers are after them now. I blame Draxin usage and sell-buy classes. What would your grid show for 4 wt. or 6 wt. bulls? BTOs can have the 500-to-550-pound steers.

The program doesn't differentiate between strs,hfr,or bulls. I think if a person is willing to piece meal a group together it can work.
I was using our local elevators fall delivery bid on corn, and Fairview, IL 7/21/2022 feeder sale prices.
I probably won't try and buy any until the combines start rolling and see what kind of yield is out there.

Breakeven Buying Price Worksheet
Selling weight after shrink (pay-weight)			750​
Expected selling price ($/cwt)				$160.00​
Average Daily Gain (pay-to-pay)				2.00​
Feeding cost of gain ($/cwt)				$100.00​
Interest rate on feeder					10.00%​
Percent death loss*					1.50%​
Costs per head (trucking, etc.)**				$25.00​
Desired profit per head					$100.00​
* Enter ONLY if death loss is NOT included in feeding cost of gain, otherwise enter zero.
** Do not enter any costs included in feeding cost of gain.
		Selling Price
Purchase		$154.00​	$156.00​	$158.00​	$160.00​	$162.00​	$164.00​	$166.00​
Weight1​		Breakeven Purchase Price2​
350		179.85​	183.85​	187.85​	191.85​	195.86​	199.86​	203.86​
400		170.91​	174.43​	177.96​	181.48​	185.01​	188.53​	192.06​
450		164.04​	167.19​	170.35​	173.50​	176.65​	179.81​	182.96​
500		158.62​	161.48​	164.34​	167.19​	170.05​	172.91​	175.76​
550		154.26​	156.88​	159.49​	162.11​	164.72​	167.33​	169.95​
600		150.70​	153.11​	155.52​	157.93​	160.35​	162.76​	165.17​
650		147.74​	149.99​	152.23​	154.47​	156.71​	158.96​	161.20​

 

[Stocker Steve]

Are there obvious spots in your current markets where the local purchase price is well below the breakeven purchase price?

 

[SBMF 2015]

Yes. My dad is retired and bored. I can send him to a sale and pick up the singles or ones and twos
that the order buyers don't want.

 

[DNelson]

Have you looked at the price of pork or chicken in a grocery store lately...they're not a cheap date either.

That's true, the price of protein is high no matter what you buy. in the past it was one sector or the other so consumers could go form beef to chicken or pork. not true today.

 

[Peace]

That's true, the price of protein is high no matter what you buy. in the past it was one sector or the other so consumers could go form beef to chicken or pork. not true today.

You can add eggs to that too, they're just stupid...over $3/dzn

 

[Son of Butch]

You can add eggs to that too, they're just stupid...over $3/dzn

$4.39 a dozen this week for jumbos.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Yes. My dad is retired and bored. I can send him to a sale and pick up the singles or ones and twos
that the order buyers don't want.

What percent of poor doers do you expect when sorting thru that kind?


Six to seven weight heifers were the most discounted group when I was buying this spring.

 

[BFE]

You can add eggs to that too, they're just stupid...over $3/dzn

That's a lot of nutrition for the money.

 

[SBMF 2015]

What percent of poor doers do you expect when sorting thru that kind?


Six to seven weight heifers were the most discounted group when I was buying this spring.

There will be some to stay away from for sure. I'm not sure what percent. Just like all classes of cattle, you need to fallow the "rules of sale barn marketing" Angus based blacks only with maybe a very select few bwfs. Nothing that looks overly staggy.

6-7wt hfrs are just at the size that there are a lot of unknowns. They could be small frames and quit growing. They could be knocked up. They could be older than they seem and look aged by the time they finish.

 

[Stocker Steve]

6-7wt hfrs are just at the size that there are a lot of unknowns. They could be small frames and quit growing. They could be knocked up. They could be older than they seem and look aged by the time they finish.

When would you buy heifers?