Feeder Cattle Pricing 2014 vs. 2023

[Stocker Steve]

Record 2023 fat prices have not resulted in record feeder prices. Scott Brown just published an article for The Farmer explaining how it is different this time. Corn dropped from U$S 7.04 in early 2013 to $ 3.65 by end of 2014. So feedlots were able to pay more for feeders in 2014, compared to today.

Since feedlot cost of gain is high - - grazing yearlings or stockers should be very profitable for operators with LRP. That kind take less labor than pairs but more capitol. Which works better for you?

 

[Dave]

I saw 635 pound steers bring $2.64. I don't remember the exact numbers in 2014. But if that doesn't beat it we are mighty close. 5 wgt steers are consistently over $2.50.

 

[Stocker Steve]

So I should dump my calves for $2.50 or take them to grass?

 

[Dave]

So I should dump my calves for $2.50 or take them to grass?

Do what makes you happy. Mine are going to grass. Was talking to a friend of mine last night. He saw some 8 weight steers sell for $2.65 and 9 weights bring $2.60.

 

[ClinchValley86]

@Stocker Steve I am torn on what to do. Young breds are 800 to 1100 here right now. I'm considering selling calves and bringing home some nice young breds. My calves are 450 to 550 right now and mostly heifers. I'm trying to figure out this "art of the trade" thing that some of you do very well with. Am I on the right track? I could direct market the mommas next year, sell as pairs this year, split and sell, do many things.

Are yall thinking they'll hit $3 a pound? 8 and 9 weights over 2.50 sounds pretty dang good.

Listened to a podcast with John Haskell and Willy Olson that hit this topic perfectly. Herd Quitter episode 112 I think.

 

[SBMF 2015]

Fat top at the local sale barn was $185.50 yesterday! Blew right through the $178 top from 3 weeks ago.
My calves will be at a sale tomorrow except for the replacement hfrs. I just got done sorting. May have gotten carried away. Going to keep back just short of the top half of the hfrs. Pretty hard decision to make when they're worth so much. But unless demand drops, I don't see this market changing much for the next 4 years.

 

[alacowman1]

Fat top at the local sale barn was $185.50 yesterday! Blew right through the $178 top from 3 weeks ago.
My calves will be at a sale tomorrow except for the replacement hfrs. I just got done sorting. May have gotten carried away. Going to keep back just short of the top half of the hfrs. Pretty hard decision to make when they're worth so much. But unless demand drops, I don't see this market changing much for the next 4 years.

It could change over night..this country has became so bipolar..we wake up in a different world every day

 

[SBMF 2015]

It could change over night..this country has became so bipolar..we wake up in a different world every day

True, but at least if this thing falls completely out of bed we have fairly low cow numbers. An over abundance of cattle won't add to a depressed market.

 

[farmerjan]

A couple weeks ago we shipped 30+ steers in the 560 wt range for 2.53 and 27 more in the 480 range for 2.55 and last week they supposedly brought in the 2.70's. Heifers in the 450-6 wts are at 2.00 or a little over... Sold about 20 odd ball colors/sizes 2 weeks ago.... We were going to graze the heifers, but found some 5 wt bulls in the 2.20's so bought them and are going to ship the 30+ heifers in the next week. The economy is soo crazy, the world situation with fighting and threats and all so uncertain, and add to that the wildly fluctuating weather with droughts in a fair amount of the southwest still and California going from extreme drought to extreme wet/flooding.... we are selling off what looks like a "sure thing" (the steers sold and the heifers to be sold) and taking a smaller risk on these bulls (actually, they are now steers)... because we don't have as much in them.... and not carrying over too much. We still have all the late fall born calves on the cows, and the spring calving cows now dropping calves... but we are not carrying over many replacement heifers this summer..... been cutting the less productive cattle... and unless they are good cows and easy to work with, not grafting calves on any that have lost them; only 3 so far anyway and 2 were not candidates to work with and the other took the calf in 24 hours and she is out and they are doing fine.....

We are running about 120 brood cows instead of the 140-150 we used to run; lost a couple lease places being sold... making a little less hay also... would rather let more grass grow up this year and have extra for extending the grazing season.... and you never know when it is going to get dry.... we can always make more hay on some of the pastures if it gets too far ahead of us....

And, no, not keeping them past the 450-550 weight range.... it is the sweet spot here so may as well ship before there is more feed/grass in them than makes financial sense....

 

[Stocker Steve]

@Stocker Steve I am torn on what to do. Young breds are 800 to 1100 here right now. I'm considering selling calves and bringing home some nice young breds. My calves are 450 to 550 right now and mostly heifers. I'm trying to figure out this "art of the trade" thing that some of you do very well with. Am I on the right track? I could direct market the mommas next year, sell as pairs this year, split and sell, do many things.

Are yall thinking they'll hit $3 a pound? 8 and 9 weights over 2.50 sounds pretty dang good.

Listened to a podcast with John Haskell and Willy Olson that hit this topic perfectly. Herd Quitter episode 112 I think.

I have not seen the podcast yet, but selling heifers and buying back breds is a no brainer business move. That said, I have my best pen of open heifers ever... I am going to procrastinate and take them to grass.

High corn prices are holding back what feedlots can pay for calves. My crystal ball says corn prices will drop and then calf prices will peak in 2024-2025. But some are still losing money with record calf prices. Real issue is cow calf gross margin. Calf price is one part of a three-part equation.

 

[ClinchValley86]

I have not seen the podcast yet, but selling heifers and buying back breds is a no brainer business move. That said, I have my best pen of open heifers ever... I am going to procrastinate and take them to grass.

High corn prices are holding back what feedlots can pay for calves. My crystal ball says corn prices will drop and then calf prices will peak in 2024-2025. But some are still losing money with record calf prices. Real issue is cow calf gross margin. Calf price is one part of a three-part equation.

Agreed on that. I'm holding too. I feel the uptick has only just began. I wanna see $2 cows and $3.50 calves before I cut much loose. Grass is coming on so I feel good about riding it for a little while.

Our calf crop from Fall 2022 is mostly heifers, and they look like the best crop I've had yet. The sire was ideally built or my tastes and needs. Put my chocolate bull on them is what I'd like to do.

As much as I'd love to cash in, I think it's going to get better.

I plan to buy hay like crazy out of the field this year and stock up. Make up my mind along the way.

May take the bottom 20% of calves and trade for breds just to say I tried something different this year.

 

[Stocker Steve]

A rising market like this makes almost everyone look good. You should still track the value of different classes on animals, to know when to make a trade.

Fleshy breds jumped up in value here this month. Thinner ones are much less expensive.

 

[Dave]

I hauled a horse to the sale for a local. Stuck around watched feeder cattle sell. Here is what I wrote down.
24 black heifers weighing 746 sold for $2.08
15 black heifers weighing 840 brought $1.88
11 black steers weighing555 sold for $2.75
4 heifers weighing 400 sold for $2.56
25 heifers weighing 485 sold for $2.40
15 red and whiteface steers weighing 490 sold for $2.70
10 Hereford steers weighing 542 brought $2.49
7 black steers weighing 551 sold for $2.75
I stuck around for about 5 hours to catch the pairs and bred cows. The top pairs were $2,500, good thick solid mouth cows. Saw two smooth mouth cows with so so calves break $2,100.
And I can't sit that long at the sale without buying something. I bought a broken mouth black whiteface that weighed 1,215 and is 8 months bred for $1,275.

 

[farmerjan]

Steers are about $.20-.30 more per pound there but heifers are $.40-.50 more there. We got $2.55 for our 550 wt steers but heifers were in the $2-2.07. The cow you bought will be behind the rest a little won't she? How many of yours do you have left to calve? How soon will they all be going out to summer grazing? I think you said you were helping with branding?

 

[Dave]

Steers are about $.20-.30 more per pound there but heifers are $.40-.50 more there. We got $2.55 for our 550 wt steers but heifers were in the $2-2.07. The cow you bought will be behind the rest a little won't she? How many of yours do you have left to calve? How soon will they all be going out to summer grazing? I think you said you were helping with branding?

I think there is 8 left to calf. This one I just bought will probably beat some that are out in the pasture. The pairs will go to summer range as soon as we can catch an open day in the schedules to brand. I have been to 7 brandings in the last 2 weeks and I haven't been to every branding. There are real local brandings the next 3 days (next door neighbor and a neighbor about 3 miles down the road). It is a busy time of the year here.

 

[puzzled in oregon]

I hauled a horse to the sale for a local. Stuck around watched feeder cattle sell. Here is what I wrote down.
24 black heifers weighing 746 sold for $2.08
15 black heifers weighing 840 brought $1.88
11 black steers weighing555 sold for $2.75
4 heifers weighing 400 sold for $2.56
25 heifers weighing 485 sold for $2.40
15 red and whiteface steers weighing 490 sold for $2.70
10 Hereford steers weighing 542 brought $2.49
7 black steers weighing 551 sold for $2.75
I stuck around for about 5 hours to catch the pairs and bred cows. The top pairs were $2,500, good thick solid mouth cows. Saw two smooth mouth cows with so so calves break $2,100.
And I can't sit that long at the sale without buying something. I bought a broken mouth black whiteface that weighed 1,215 and is 8 months bred for $1,275.

Are these calves already programed(?) with vaccinations according to what the buyers want ?
Anything put thru the auction yards over here are expected to be vaccinated according to the buyers specifications,
if you want a fair price.
The sale yard says the buyers don't pay less for calves that aren't vaccinated with what the buyers want, but they will
pay more for vaccinated animals. The price some of us get, looks more like we get docked $20-$50 per cwt. or more.
They are even specific as to the brand of vaccine, plus live/modified live versus killed.

 

[farmerjan]

If you sell in the couple of graded sales that are specific for vaccs and what they require, etc... then yes, you might get a little more... Weaned is the bigger thing here, but it might mean a difference of only $.20 when the buyers are looking to make a pot load here this time of year. And the smaller 3-4 wts are hitting 3.00 and they are 99% NOT weaned here...
We do not sell at those special graded sales since we do not use any MLV vaccines... all killed vaccines here. It just works for us and no worries about anything possibly losing a pregnancy or anything.

 

[puzzled in oregon]

This is the form they want filled out. Doesn't seem to matter whether special/feeder sale or not.
Mostly I was just curious if this has become standard everywhere.

 

[SBMF 2015]

This is the form they want filled out. Doesn't seem to matter whether special/feeder sale or not.
Mostly I was just curious if this has become standard everywhere.

That's simple enough. This is what ours looks like.
I don't mind. I can fill it out on the computer and print or email it to the sale barn. They were getting to many hand written notes they couldn't make out.
Two rounds of shots, long time weaned, bunk broke, and uniformity are what it takes to good prices here.

 

[puzzled in oregon]

Do they require the vaccines be administered by a veterinarian ?