This year's crystal ball

[Dave]

I am thinking and actually started a little today that the thing is light bull calves. I don't know how to make the broken mouth cows work this year with the price of hay. I still might do some of them if I am able buy them late. As in not starting to buy until February. The issue is how many will be available at that late date.
So today I bought 2 black bull calves that weigh 300. They cost me $1.14. My theory is that light calves don't eat as much. Bulls are cheaper than steers so by castrating them I gain value on the weight I buy plus the weight I put on them is worth more. Those little light bulls clean up and look like a steer pretty quick. Back in August when we weaned calves there were some little peanuts which we didn't want to toss out to grass. There is 16 of them. They have been in a feed pen here since August. Just 5 days short of 3 months. In that time they have eaten 6 bale of hay (3x4x8 squares) and a ton of grain. Works out to $62.50 in feed per head. So on bulls like the ones I bought today for $336 + $62.50 for feed= $398.50. Far easy figuring say they make 400 pounds in 3 months. 400 pound steers were $1.70+ all day today. That is $680 which is $281.50 to the good per head. Of course there are some other costs involved. Vaccinations, minerals, etc. But those are comparatively minor costs.
The other issue is there are reltively few small bull calves coming to the sale here. Could make for some long days and coming home with an empty trailer.

 

[KAstocker]

Are you going to sell them in the spring and trade them for something else that's undervalued?

 

[Rmc]

Bull calves have been good money makers for us. Only thing better is horned bull calves

 

[Dave]

Are you going to sell them in the spring and trade them for something else that's undervalued?

They might not make it all the way to spring. The available summer pasture is a bit rough so it would need to be something with more age. Maybe heifers to go out with B's Wagyu bulls to sell in the fall as bred heifers with an F1 calf in them.

Bull calves have been good money makers for us. Only thing better is horned bull calves

I will stick to black, solid red, or char cross. Everything else gets beat up pretty bad at the selling end.

 

[SBMF 2015]

Feeder bulls turned into feeder strs make money.
Lite bulls 400 and under are still high here, but the bigger bulls 800 and up are $0.40 back compared to strs of the same quality. I've been thinking hard about getting some banding them and feeding them out. Even with high grain prices you can pencil in a profit if the Fed cattle market stays high.
But I have the same problem, I don't have time to go to sales twice a wk just to come home empty.

 

[MurraysMutts]

A month ago those lil fart bulls were super cheap here too.
Not now! 2 bucks a pound mostly.
Shoulda..
Coulda...
Woulda...

 

[SBMF 2015]

A month ago those lil fart bulls were super cheap here too.
Not now! 2 bucks a pound mostly.
Shoulda..
Coulda...
Woulda...

$1.80 here. If they still have nuts it usually means no shots and just weaned. So you can add treatment and possibly death loss to a break even. Still gotta have a sharp pencil.

 

[kenny thomas]

Light calves are the cheapest thing selling here. They sure look like a bargain

 

[callmefence]

A month ago those lil fart bulls were super cheap here too.
Not now! 2 bucks a pound mostly.
Shoulda..
Coulda...
Woulda...

Same here. Little bittys in high demand.
Rain =wheat

 

[Dave]

Feeder bulls turned into feeder strs make money.
Lite bulls 400 and under are still high here, but the bigger bulls 800 and up are $0.40 back compared to strs of the same quality. I've been thinking hard about getting some banding them and feeding them out. Even with high grain prices you can pencil in a profit if the Fed cattle market stays high.
But I have the same problem, I don't have time to go to sales twice a wk just to come home empty.

B has a bunch of 600 pound bulls that have been getting banded. He was out of town on other business. The son and hired men were handling things (all early 20's). There was about 300 pairs that the calves hadn't been worked. They scheduled a branding for Tuesday. Monday night 300 pairs made the great escape and headed for the hills. Rather than saddling up, taking the dogs, and putting the horses on a long trot, they called off the branding. That morning they could have caught 80-90% of them but they did nothing. So now has cows come out of the hills there are a lot of slick bull calves. B decided that rather than take the beating at the sale barn on those fresh cut calves he is going to put them in a feedlot.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Bull calves have been good money makers for us. Only thing better is horned bull calves

How does their value of gain compare to heifers?

 

[Lee VanRoss]

I have entertained getting some light bull calves at the sale barn but my fly in the ointment is the ability to keep the incoming
inventory separate from those already on hand or home grown. I have gained some hard earned experience bringing in new
or unvaccinated stock and mixing them. Due to the way the water is set up I can go to the sale barn once, maybe twice then
I am compelled to wait to be sure everything is coming along ok so I can add them to the others before I haul any more home.

I can't see adding more facilities at my stage of the game and the promise of return still pencil on paper. I say if you have pen
space and feed go for it! Just have an adjustable exit plan!

 

[Stocker Steve]

Light calves are the cheapest thing selling here. They sure look like a bargain

Very seasonal in the north.
A few guys like them early in the fall, and may pen them in an open lot.
Need decent facilities to get growth once polar vortex hits.
We used to pen them in an old dairy barn to break the wind and moderate temperature swings. Left doors open for ventilation.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I am thinking and actually started a little today that the thing is light bull calves. I don't know how to make the broken mouth cows work this year with the price of hay. I still might do some of them if I am able buy them late. As in not starting to buy until February.

(Some day) bred prices will go way up, and replacement heifers will not eat like a thin BM cow. If you were a speculator - - what selling price would you need to make replacements work in 2022?

 

[Son of Butch]

Whatever number you arrive at add 5-6% to account for inflation.

 

[ClinchValley86]

Whatever number you arrive at add 5-6% to account for inflation.

A very optimistic figure. Lol

 

[Dave]

(Some day) bred prices will go way up, and replacement heifers will not eat like a thin BM cow. If you were a speculator - - what selling price would you need to make replacements work in 2022?

True. Last year I bought a bunch of heifers for B this time of year. He wintered them and bred them to Waygu bulls. Used the F1 Waygu calf value and the calving ease as a selling point. These were primarily Angus heifers but a little of everything mixed in. If I do it this year I would buy later to significantly reduce winter feed. Doing that I would have to buy heavier. I don't pry into his business but I know he sold 5 pot loads and had people wanting more. $1,400-$1,600. With little or no wintering cost that will work. The problem may be finding enough 700 pound heifers in April

 

[Stocker Steve]

I still have "all" my heifers. After culling down the cow herd - - the calves look better than ever.

My guess is U$S 1600 to 1800 for a bull bred heifer next fall.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I would like to buy a pot or two of those U$S 700 to 800 bred cows, ship them to a low-cost wintering location and let them keep a couple they cannot catch in March. Where would that low-cost wintering location be?

 

[Little Joe]

I would like to buy a pot or two of those U$S 700 to 800 bred cows, ship them to a low-cost wintering location and let them keep a couple they cannot catch in March. Where would that low-cost wintering location be?

Any place in the south that stockpiled fescue.