This year's crystal ball

[Stocker Steve]

I went to a bred cow sale today just on a scouting trip. Cows topped at $1,400. Most were around $1,200.

Why do you think folks are paying that much in December?

 

[Stocker Steve]

This brings up a point we were discussing in another topic, there are lots of 3wt calves sold at reasonable prices and its way below production cost. Any cow with that small of a calf should be a cull. Do you think their mommas were all in the slaughter pens?

Could have been rolled back into the next calving group.

 

[CowboyRam]

I went to a bred cow sale today just on a scouting trip. Cows topped at $1,400. Most were around $1,200. The broken mouth cow deal sure wouldn't work today. The kill buyers bought all those bigger framed cows weighing 1,300-1,200 pounds. They were paying $800 a head. Hay twice as expensive and cows costing an extra $150. That just don't pencil for me. The buy of the day was some good bred black heifers from a reputation ranch weighing a little over 1,000 which sold for $1,000. They were bred 6 months.

I sold my weigh up cows in the wrong market, I only got about $425 for mine here in Wyoming. There were some young bred cows that sold fairly low, there were some 2nd calf cows that sold somewhere around 900 here a couple weeks ago; I don't plan on buy any replacements until next month.

 

[Dave]

Why do you think folks are paying that much in December?

They need something to write off on 2021 taxes? Don't know how to push a pencil? There is a lot of optimism in the market but a bigger gamble than I am willing to take.

I sold my weigh up cows in the wrong market, I only got about $425 for mine here in Wyoming. There were some young bred cows that sold fairly low, there were some 2nd calf cows that sold somewhere around 900 here a couple weeks ago; I don't plan on buy any replacements until next month.

Kill cows have been running 65-55 cents here for the last month. 5 head of BM cows bred 4/5 months weighing 1,300 bought by a kill buyer for $800. That works out to 61.5 cents so well in the range of price for kill cows.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I sold my weigh up cows in the wrong market, I only got about $425 for mine here in Wyoming. There were some young bred cows that sold fairly low, there were some 2nd calf cows that sold somewhere around 900 here a couple weeks ago; I don't plan on buy any replacements until next month.

Most culls are in the 50s here. Breds prices are very variable. Buyers are picky.

Some guys are holding breds betting on big appreciation next year. Could happen, but I don't think they are valuing their feed at market prices, nor factoring in our current weather.

Continued drought is the short-term wild card. Still dry here and urea price is crazy high, so below average 2022 forage production is probable.

My crystal ball says sell (more) big cows, hold heifers till summer, and then decide on weather to breed them.

 

[Dave]

B pointed out that those good bred heifers would be better than buying broken mouth cows. Calf them out, rebreed, sell the calves, and sell the heifers in the fall as coming with second calf. That would be a workable plan. The heifers are only a couple hundred more to buy. Probably won't lose any heifers but with BM cows you have to figure a 5% death lose. Selling coming with second calf is worth a lot more than the kill price on a BM cow. Would've, should've, could've. I don't think I will see many of those kind showing up at the sale. And you still need to find something to feed until grass comes on in April.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I think the risk with one and dones is that a drought and fertilizer cost driven cull may depress kill prices next fall.

I am sure that kill prices will hit U$S 1 again, but it which year?

 

[Stocker Steve]

B pointed out that those good bred heifers would be better than buying broken mouth cows.

There are always deals here on small bred heifers running 800 to 900 pounds in the fall. Hobby guys are afraid to calve them out and order buyers seldom have orders for that kind.

 

[Dave]

I think the risk with one and dones is that a drought and fertilizer cost driven cull may depress kill prices next fall.

I am sure that kill prices will hit U$S 1 again, but it which year?

I am not worried about kill price. A couple of reasons. First I ship in August before the fall gult hits the market. And second it is holding decent now with the plants running full time and cows backed up a couple of weeks. There is still a lot of demand for burger.

There are always deals here on small bred heifers running 800 to 900 pounds in the fall. Hobby guys are afraid to calve them out and order buyers seldom have orders for that kind.

I don't want those kind if I were to do the bred heifer deal. First I have to calf them out and get them rebred. Second how much will they grow up over the summer. Small coming second calf cows won't sell near what good looking cow will sell for. That resell value is a lot of what will make this deal work.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I don't want those kind if I were to do the bred heifer deal. First I have to calf them out and get them rebred. Second how much will they grow up over the summer. Small coming second calf cows won't sell near what good looking cow will sell for. That resell value is a lot of what will make this deal work.

There will be a lot of different outcomes with small bred heifers. Freezer beef can be the most profitable.

 

[Dave]

There will be a lot of different outcomes with small bred heifers. Freezer beef can be the most profitable.

I am in a very poor location to sell freezer beef. County is bigger than the state of Delaware with a population of only 16,000. Cattle out number people 4 or 5 to 1. Everyone is related to or friends of a ranch owner.

 

[gcreekrch]

B pointed out that those good bred heifers would be better than buying broken mouth cows. Calf them out, rebreed, sell the calves, and sell the heifers in the fall as coming with second calf. That would be a workable plan. The heifers are only a couple hundred more to buy. Probably won't lose any heifers but with BM cows you have to figure a 5% death lose. Selling coming with second calf is worth a lot more than the kill price on a BM cow. Would've, should've, could've. I don't think I will see many of those kind showing up at the sale. And you still need to find something to feed until grass comes on in April.

I would have bought those heifers and thought later Dave. Most time it works……

 

[Dave]

I would have bought those heifers and thought later Dave. Most time it works……

I wasn't there looking to buy anything so I never even thought about it. It was a scouting mission and something to do on a Wednesday afternoon. I didn't bring my check book or the trailer. In fact I drove the little car.