When will cow prices get good.

[kenny thomas]

A statement in another post from 1982vett makes me ask this question.
When will slaughter cows prices get good? I am like 1982vett, holding a few cows for the higher slaughter market. Might even put in a few more just to sell later. All will be on grass until about March 1 so I think it will pay to keep them. If the price rises .10 on a 1200lb cow that is $120 profit compared to selling now. Thats about as much profit as I made on her calf this year.

What's your thoughts?

 

[bigbull338]

cull cow prices should start bouncing back in jan or feb.when the freezers start running low on hamberger.

 

[hillrancher]

Prices will be comming back around Feb. Depends on grain prices as to the extent they will increase. From now to middle of Jan. next yr. holidays are on everyone mind not cattle. June will usually peak on old cows and Sept.
I have weaned all my calves this year and holding either to increase loses or income.

 

[Bez+]

Actually do not expect a real rise in prices from now until you quit the game.

Prices many years ago were as good or better and production costs were far lower - so you are getting less today for what is costing you more to produce.

The majors are using vertical integration to control pricing.

Essentially they buy and hold cattle when the pricing is down.

As the price rises they use their own - forcing prices to fall to where they want to buy and then they top up what they own and hold while slaughtering off the market. Remember - they have banks of lawyers and accountants - and they can work on 1/4 penny pricing.

The other problem is competition or lack thereof.

When the majors take out the small guys, there is less competition.

As well the move to go off shore for cattle and import is growing.

Majors are selling out to each other - consolidation of slaughter plants - meaning there is yet again less competition.

Over all the game is getting tougher and will stay that way for a long time.

Yes, you will see prices rise and fall but comparing to the cost of production - the true cost - not the "I do it for taxes" and sell 10 beef a year cost - the price you receive for your cattle will be low, will stay low and will not likely improve much - or enough - to make a real difference over the next 5-10 years.

That being said - should the available product become unable to keep up with demand - pricing will increase - but you will still compete with imports.

Canadian dollar is now almost at par with the US so there is a reduction of imports from the north (I believe) - however there is still a lot of beef coming in from southern countries and continents.

Remember - your country cannot exist without those imports as you cannot produce enough beef to service your domestic market AND your export markets.

So that is why you are topped up with cheap imports.

Essentially - until you can match the production cost of imported beef you are well and truly screwed.

Bez+

 

[johnlesse]

When maturity came...

_____________________
toy model trains

 

[melanie]

What kind of money you get for your meat cows.Here in quebec this week it's .64 dress weight for thinner one 500lbs and up and .75 for the good fat one but it's 650lbs and up.

 

[kenny thomas]

Have not checked rail prices in a couple of weeks but I think top price is around .80 which makes live cows worth .40-.42 at best.

 

[[Bez]]

Kind of makes a person wonder how folks can claim they make good money of cows

[Bez]

 

[1982vett]

I guess it has to do with the definition of "good money". I hear "used to make good money" more than "making...".

 

[Stocker Steve]

A statement in another post from 1982vett makes me ask this question.
When will slaughter cows prices get good? I am like 1982vett, holding a few cows for the higher slaughter market. Might even put in a few more just to sell later. All will be on grass until about March 1 so I think it will pay to keep them. If the price rises .10 on a 1200lb cow that is $120 profit compared to selling now. Thats about as much profit as I made on her calf this year.

What's your thoughts?

I think if you can make $120 per calf you may want to keep her...

 

[Stocker Steve]

I did some figguring last November before I went on a cow buying spree. From memory:

November used to be the lowest price month. This seems to have moved out to December/January recently.
Average historical price increase (when feeding up a thin cow purchased at the seasonal low) is 7 cents per hundred.
In my area - there seems to be a price bump right before the Christmas holidays. I plan to move a few then.
Bez is right - - the packers stockpile cows when prices are low.

 

[Alberta farmer]

This is a good question. Right now the prices in my area for a decent cow are around 30-34 cents. The packers are definitely stockpiling cows, no way they could get them all killed right now.
My local sale barn owner thinks cows will be sky high come spring. He predicts a good cow with calf will be $1500. He is also predicting 600 lb. calves in the spring will be around $1.40/lb.! He thinks with the huge selloff of cows and calves this fall there will a lot of empty pastures looking for something to put in them.
He might be right. A local cattle buyer told me he has been getting phone calls everday from landowners wanted to rent out their pasture next year.
I am still holding some cows and bred heifers but intend to sell soon. Sold all the old girls and practically all of the calves(kept a few for the freezer trade....already spoken for). Considering the poor markets I didn't do too bad as they weighed up good. Started feeding three days ago.

 

[[Bez]]

This is a good question. Right now the prices in my area for a decent cow are around 30-34 cents. The packers are definitely stockpiling cows, no way they could get them all killed right now.
My local sale barn owner thinks cows will be sky high come spring. He predicts a good cow with calf will be $1500. He is also predicting 600 lb. calves in the spring will be around $1.40/lb.! He thinks with the huge selloff of cows and calves this fall there will a lot of empty pastures looking for something to put in them.
He might be right. A local cattle buyer told me he has been getting phone calls everday from landowners wanted to rent out their pasture next year.
I am still holding some cows and bred heifers but intend to sell soon. Sold all the old girls and practically all of the calves(kept a few for the freezer trade....already spoken for). Considering the poor markets I didn't do too bad as they weighed up good. Started feeding three days ago.

Well, I hope you are right on the rebound in pricing.

I am a bit more pessimistic

Time will tell

My best

[Bez]

 

[Stocker Steve]

Higher milk and calf prices will prompt both the heifer and cow retention that will really drive cow prices up. I find it hard to believe this will happen in a couple months. Apparently there are alot of pessimists in addition to Bez because I paid U$S 575 to 710 last week for 900 to 1000# bred heifers... One is a little smaller and one is high headed but I still ended up with 15 good ones.

 

[HerefordSire]

A statement in another post from 1982vett makes me ask this question.
When will slaughter cows prices get good? I am like 1982vett, holding a few cows for the higher slaughter market. Might even put in a few more just to sell later. All will be on grass until about March 1 so I think it will pay to keep them. If the price rises .10 on a 1200lb cow that is $120 profit compared to selling now. Thats about as much profit as I made on her calf this year.

What's your thoughts?

Prices should run with the USD. Sooner or later the dollar will reverse. When it does, it should retrace a percentage from the high as normal action. Therefore, after the USD reverses and peaks could be the best time to liquidate.