tnwalkingred
Well-known member
Anyone used this bull? His numbers are through the roof and he certainly passes the eye test. His accuracy is low on most however at only 50%. He is a 2011 model.
KW
KW
Actually, he's marketed through origen, which is marketed by ABS so he IS on a major AI stud lineup.tnwalkingred":1kq4h3pc said:I wonder if him not being owned by a semen company is one reason he is not getting the press that others are.
KW
Just opened Genex book. First page Final Answer 13 ced 61 ww, 2nd page long distance 22 ced 52 ww, 3rd page Insight 12 ced 59 ww, 4th page Bismark 13 ced 57 ww, 6th page Irish 15 ced 55 ww and list goes on and on...........Katpau":8arvvkk5 said:For a 2011 bull that is available through AI and that has 3 producers sharing ownership, this bull has surprisingly low accuracies. I had a 2010 bull for three seasons in my herd. He had less than 75 calves born to him, and has an accuracy of .68 for WW (weaning weight), based on the data I have turned in. Both Tour of Duty and my bull had genomic profiles, although his was Igenity and mine was Zoetis PF50. They should be comparable. I would have expected him to have many more calves than my bull who has only been used natural service. When you pay a lot for a bull, you would think you would try to get as many calves as possible out of him. The two new owners and the breeder could have used him on just 25 cows each in the last 2 years to give him 75 calves by now. Since his accuracy at .62 is less than my bulls, he must not have had data turned in on that many yet. His CED (Calving ease direct) accuracy is only at .47. My bull has an accuracy of .44. I AI my heifers to calving ease bulls in an effort to avoid problems, and then turn them in with one of my bulls. That bull only had 4 calves out of heifers. His CED is mostly based on the genetic profile. Since Tour of Duty does not have an accuracy much greater than my bull, it would indicate his CED is mostly based on the genetic profile, and a relatively small amount of data turned in by those who share ownership. I would be shocked if he could maintain this spread when bred to a large number of cows owned by producers that don't have a financial interest in the results. He makes me think of R/M Ironstone 4047, another ABS bull. In 2010 Ironstone was promoted as "The Ultimate balanced trait bull", "a spread bull of the first order". His EPDs showed a BW of .4 and a WW of 81. In Spring of 2011 his CED was 8, his BW rose to 1.9 while his WW dropped to 69. Still, a very impressive spread. He was heavily used. He seemed the ideal bull. Safe enough to use on heifers, and with the ability to pull up those EPD's that some find more important than the animal himself. The problem? It wasn't real. When all of those breeders got done turning in their data, and reporting their calving problems, reality hit. His EPD's as of today are: CED -16, BW +4.8, and WW 62. He still has a decent WW although almost 20 ponds below that first report of 81, but his CED change is truly terrifying. I am not sure what his number was in 2010, although I know it was greater than 8, but from 2011 to 2014 his CED went from +8 to -16. That should not have even been possible with accurate numbers, but it happened.
Maybe Tour of Duty will be the exception, and the first bull ever to keep these unbelievable numbers, but I will have to see a .95 accuracy before I will believe it. There are only 3 bulls in active use with a CED over +12 and a WW over 50, and none of those are over +13 CED, or +61 WW. I just don't think it is possible to get that extreme growth and extreme calving ease in the same animal.
In spite of what I just said, I hope many people will use him, and report their results. It is the only way to get accurate information.
Yes that is why I put a .95 accuracy on that number. You would be surprised at how many bulls change between a .90 and a .95 accuracy. Even Final Answer has dropped from a +13 CED to a +12 CED since the the Genex book came out. The numbers I got were per a search I did on the AAA website last night.bse":1cq7jvbj said:Katapu
I agree with most everything your saying.
You say theres only 3 bulls with ced 12 or above with over 50 WW. Is what your saying your putting a certain percent acc. on them? I can think of 1 right off Really Windy 4097. 16 CED with 61 WW 90%acc. Id be real interested to know the other 2.