The End of EPDs?

[simme]

I know how percentiles work. My question is, what do animals in 50th percentile weigh? Actual hard number. What do calves weigh at birth in the 50th percentile? I know how to use percentiles in relation to each other but where am I starting? Is breed average mature weight 1800 pounds or 1200 pounds? Where is the data that determines this standard? It seems like average mature weight of angus cattle is probably different today than it was 50 years ago?

It don't work that way. The epd numbers do not define a hard weight number. Actual weight is defined by environment (nutrition) as well as genetics (epd). The epd number is more about comparing two animal's expected performance in the same environment. Put a purebred angus calf on a dairy nurse cow and the actual weight at weaning will be way more than if the calf nursed his dam only. Independent of epd's. Put two angus calves on the same nurse cow - the one with the higher ww epd would be expected to weigh more at weaning, on average.

Average weights will vary by herd, location, environment, management, etc. The epd's predict how animals will perform relative to each other in the same environment - whether the average weaning weight is 350 # or 750 pounds in that environment.

 

[simme]

I see the weaning and yearling weights are in the 30-35% respectively and the ADG is 50%. It looks like those percentages should be closer if the weights are well above average why isn't the ADG above average as well?
With the increased weaning and yearling EPD's the ADG only went up .01 with the DNA.

Need to consider the definition of the epd. ADG epd is related to post weaning gain (stocker and feedlot situation). It is not based on gain to weaning or gain from birth. If a calf weans at a good weight, it does not need as high of an adg post weaning to reach a particular kill weight as the animal that weans at a lower weight.

Also note that there are differences in the meaning of an epd between breeds.

 

[Travlr]

Need to consider the definition of the epd. ADG epd is related to post weaning gain (stocker and feedlot situation). It is not based on gain to weaning or gain from birth. If a calf weans at a good weight, it does not need as high of an adg post weaning to reach a particular kill weight as the animal that weans at a lower weight.

Also note that there are differences in the meaning of an epd between breeds.

All the "differences" are what make EPDs difficult to use and they make them look arbitrary and unreliable.

 

[wbvs58]

One of the most useful classes I took in my college years,/Animal Science/Beef production education was a conformation class. With no doubt in my mind, I can say it has panned out as the best value for time and dollars spent than any of my other classes. I can look at bulls, first, and then make selections from EPDs from what I see in the bulls and how I select them... before the EPDs are a factor.

If a bull doesn't make the cut with a visual inspection based in conformation, then it really doesn't matter what his EPDs are.

Personally, I believe the weak animals we see today are the result of too many people depending on EPDs to make their decisions and all those EPDs are concentrated by injudicious of AI.

Travlr, you are making the assumption that what you are looking for and what you were taught in college is the correct way and most profitable way. There is a lot of room for error when relying on a persons judgement. How often are these phenotype standards measured against actual performance. This is a question I often wonder, I am not questioning your judgement, I know what I like as well but often wonder if what we like is actually correlated with actual performance. What hard data is out there?

Ken

 

[Ebenezer]

Anyone who selects ONLY on epd's is likely to have very poor cattle. Do you guys think that the people who do not use epd's AT ALL are likely to produce better cattle than the people who include all the tools to select their cattle (and hopefully know how to apply all those tools)?

It depends on the skill of the breeder. If you use old AI bulls, you cannot rely on the EPDs. The breed disses the old animals and gives them poor EPDs. In those cases, you deal with experience, advice from older folks or reported individual data. The AAA has a table of yearly EPDs and AHIA averages. The weaning weights have not changed much and the EPDs look like the sky is the limit. Until the industry addresses the inadequacies of the current EPD system/calculations there will be skepticism and rightly so. To favor young animals is merely marketing at it's best (for the seller) or worse (for the buyer).

Like it or not, the rapid turnover of generations is a major problem in the industry. #1 it seems to indicate that there is less useful life in an adult to need to roll it out of the way ASAP. #2 the hope is on predicted usefulness and not on data drive usefulness. Did Ol' Bessie or Big Bud have good feet and fertility at age 4 or not? That type of information, good or bad, can help a thinking breeder avoid wrecks. #3 Buyers will buy herd prefixes for more dollars without as much consideration for the animal quality. One local big name herd generally has a bull or two each sale with actual or adjusted YW of 900 to 1000 pounds even after development. Is that progress or just mass sales efforts for the almighty dollar?

 

[Travlr]

Travlr, you are making the assumption that what you are looking for and what you were taught in college is the correct way and most profitable way. There is a lot of room for error when relying on a persons judgement. How often are these phenotype standards measured against actual performance. This is a question I often wonder, I am not questioning your judgement, I know what I like as well but often wonder if what we like is actually correlated with actual performance. What hard data is out there?

Ken

I did NOT say I didn't use EPDs... It's not like I go out into a bull selection only using my eye. But I do use my eye first... and weed the bulls out by eye first.

The people buying my steers aren't looking at their EPDs. They are using their eyes. If a calf doesn't have eye appeal it gets docked at the point of sale just like any visual preference from a buyer is given a premium.

And EPDs don't weigh eye appeal.

Once you have ten bulls you like, selected for conformation/eye appeal, you can go through those bull's EPDs and select by EPD criteria.

I'm sure there are Holstein bulls which would have great EPDs by beef standards... but I'd never even consider them due to their conformation. And today I see a lot of big bellied, lightly muscled cattle that look like a Holstein with a black hide... and their owners proud of their EPDs.

 

[Ky hills]

Need to consider the definition of the epd. ADG epd is related to post weaning gain (stocker and feedlot situation). It is not based on gain to weaning or gain from birth. If a calf weans at a good weight, it does not need as high of an adg post weaning to reach a particular kill weight as the animal that weans at a lower weight.

Also note that there are differences in the meaning of an epd between breeds.

That's logical. I had always thought of ADG meaning Average Daily Gain.
My thinking is though, and could be wrong but wouldn't a bigger growthier calf continue to grow whereas as smaller lighter calf at weaning might get to a finish first and just put on fat at a quicker point than a larger one, especially if larger carcasses are desired.
I admit I haven't studied the EPD's much, and my experience with them is primarily with Angus.
At a meeting one time a speaker from a college said that if you are selling calves at weaning the $W index was the one to go by and the $B was the index to use if you background or feed out the calves. That is index's with the Angus beeed that compile various EPD's like milk and ww for the $W index and yearling weight and other traits for $B. Those index may be outdated by now it all changes so fast.
Now I think there is an M index which I know nothing of as I have been outside of the registered Angus world for a while.

 

[Ebenezer]

To me - the litmus test - Why do folks go back and use older bulls that they have used before? What do they say? Do they say, "Well his EPDs have improved since the last time I used him" or do they say, "He did a great job and I love his sons and daughters"? The results matter in those decisions and not the numbers.

 

[redcowsrule33]

My biggest problem lately is if a bull gets old enough to prove himself and I decide to pull the trigger he invariably goes off the market with semen impossible to find.

 

[kenny thomas]

To me - the litmus test - Why do folks go back and use older bulls that they have used before? What do they say? Do they say, "Well his EPDs have improved since the last time I used him" or do they say, "He did a great job and I love his sons and daughters"? The results matter in those decisions and not the numbers.

You bring up an excellent point. When i ask Simme to breed one of his cows to 600U i didn't ask what her EPD's were or even what the updated EPD's of 600U were. Heck, he has been dead over 30 years and some of us still use his sons and daughters so that should show something. I think this makes 4 or 5 bulls i have used from 600U and this one like the others is just what i wanted. I was confident enough in how he would grow out that i bought him before he was born. I looked at his EPD'S before he came to me but all i cared was in the past this bloodline worked for me.

 

[StrojanHerefords]

Wh

It don't work that way. The epd numbers do not define a hard weight number. Actual weight is defined by environment (nutrition) as well as genetics (epd). The epd number is more about comparing two animal's expected performance in the same environment. Put a purebred angus calf on a dairy nurse cow and the actual weight at weaning will be way more than if the calf nursed his dam only. Independent of epd's. Put two angus calves on the same nurse cow - the one with the higher ww epd would be expected to weigh more at weaning, on average.

Average weights will vary by herd, location, environment, management, etc. The epd's predict how animals will perform relative to each other in the same environment - whether the average weaning weight is 350 # or 750 pounds in that environment.

The problem is that we all don't operate in the same environment. A cow that does well in a low input environment will blow up on good feed and a cow that is accustomed to living high on the hog will starve in the desert.

 

[farmerjan]

You bring up an excellent point. When i ask Simme to breed one of his cows to 600U i didn't ask what her EPD's were or even what the updated EPD's of 600U were. Heck, he has been dead over 30 years and some of us still use his sons and daughters so that should show something. I think this makes 4 or 5 bulls i have used from 600U and this one like the others is just what i wanted. I was confident enough in how he would grow out that i bought him before he was born. I looked at his EPD'S before he came to me but all i cared was in the past this bloodline worked for me.

This idea of liking an old bull, often dead, is why in a small way we keep bulls to use on our cows for years if we like the calves. We have enough different smaller pastures to be able to not use a bull on his daughter that we may have kept for a replacement. Many/most of our calves are terminal, but not all. We have 2 bulls that are over 10, passed their BSE 's with fine numbers... another is 8, and a couple others are in the 4-6 yr range. We have kept several daughters from 2 of the oldest 3 bulls.... One is an easy calving bull, he is as quiet and gentle a breeder there is, and STILL use him on heifers.... we have kept a few of his daughters but mostly they are sold.... he does what we bought him for.
We keep what we like, what looks like they will do what we want in a brood cow. We keep what works, and what have given us saleable feeder calves in the past.

 

[simme]

Wh

The problem is that we all don't operate in the same environment. A cow that does well in a low input environment will blow up on good feed and a cow that is accustomed to living high on the hog will starve in the desert.

That is a good reason to keep replacements out of your herd or at least heifers from a similar environment and management style. Cattle raised for generations in conditions that are similar to your own - just seems like they are more likely to do well in your herd. Independent of epd's.

In regard to epd's, data for updates come from calves in the same contemporary/pasture group. How a calf performed relative to other calves in that pasture with differences in performance between those cattle in that pasture causing updates to the calves, the sires and the dams of those calves.

 

[simme]

You bring up an excellent point. When i ask Simme to breed one of his cows to 600U i didn't ask what her EPD's were or even what the updated EPD's of 600U were. Heck, he has been dead over 30 years and some of us still use his sons and daughters so that should show something. I think this makes 4 or 5 bulls i have used from 600U and this one like the others is just what i wanted. I was confident enough in how he would grow out that i bought him before he was born. I looked at his EPD'S before he came to me but all i cared was in the past this bloodline worked for me.

I looked today at the epd's for progeny of the 38 year old 600U bull. The simmental database only displays the most recent 500 animals in a search. The most recent 500 progeny from 600U go back to 2006 (when the bull was only 20 years old). So those last 500 progeny cover 18 years. I sorted those by WW epd. Guess which 600U calf born in the last 18 years has the highest WW epd of them all. Yes, Kenny owns the highest WW epd 600U calf in that group. Also the highest Carcass Weight epd in that group.

And 600U was a very popular sire - appearing in thousands of simmental pedigree.

 

[anewcomer]

simme, I sent you a PM.

 

[kenny thomas]

I looked today at the epd's for progeny of the 38 year old 600U bull. The simmental database only displays the most recent 500 animals in a search. The most recent 500 progeny from 600U go back to 2006 (when the bull was only 20 years old). So those last 500 progeny cover 18 years. I sorted those by WW epd. Guess which 600U calf born in the last 18 years has the highest WW epd of them all. Yes, Kenny owns the highest WW epd 600U calf in that group. Also the highest Carcass Weight epd in that group.

And 600U was a very popular sire - appearing in thousands of simmental pedigree.

Your gonna make me blush. Lol

 

[Travlr]

Your gonna make me blush. Lol

You musta had the right cow. That's about as cool as it gets. Congrats.

 

[kenny thomas]

You musta had the right cow. That's about as cool as it gets. Congrats.

Was Simme cow. He choose the cow, i choose the bull. The cow actually has some 600U way back in her background i think. If we keep on Simme is gonna want a bonus on him.

 

[simme]

You musta had the right cow. That's about as cool as it gets. Congrats.

Cow's epd is in the 70 percentile for weaning weight (bottom 30% of breed). So, the cow was not picked for her epd's or to chase numbers. She was picked because she reliably settles to AI, and has produced some nice calves. Her first calf went to the Clemson bull test. Second calf was retained as a replacement. Third calf belongs to Kenny. Fourth calf (bull) was just weaned and appears to be high growth. Bred back on first service to a baldy bull for the next calf. Hoping for a heifer.

My cows are mostly low to medium epd cows. Every cow in my little herd has 600U in the pedigree - most multiple times.