Feeder cattle bottom price/time poll

[Caustic Burno]

Should see an uptick 2018 and start climbing until 2022 if the cycle holds.
The uptick for back forty cows won't be as nice IMO it had better mash scales and grade if you want it.

 

[Bigfoot]

A sale near me showed stuff up a little. Good 500 pound steer could get close to 1.60. I can make a little at that. Some of my inputs are down to though.

 

[Caustic Burno]

A sale near me showed stuff up a little. Good 500 pound steer could get close to 1.60. I can make a little at that. Some of my inputs are down to though.

Average here is 1.65 mine are still bringing 2.10 last month
Not having premium calf in the downturns is a killer.
Any nut should be able to turn profit at 4 bucks a pound.

 

[Ojp6]

A sale near me showed stuff up a little. Good 500 pound steer could get close to 1.60. I can make a little at that. Some of my inputs are down to though.

Average here is 1.65 mine are still bringing 2.10 last month
Not having premium calf in the downturns is a killer.
Any nut should be able to turn profit at 4 bucks a pound.

If prices from the last week of March would have held on for a few months we would be doing alright. Do you think the cycle will speed up this round? Seems like with the prices dropping so quickly a lot of people are selling out, which I would think would slow or stop expansion as a lot of older breds are now going to kill. If expansion turns to downsizing of the national cowherd in a shorter time than in a usual cycle I've heard some suggest it could cause this cycle to speed so we could potentially see prices start back up within three years.

 

[Caustic Burno]

It is going to be a rough row to hoe this year IMOO I
Look for stabilization next year with 4 wts holding 2.00 to 2.50 and improvement in 2018. Again that is for the premium grade calf for your area. Imports will turn down with the lower prices as shipping becomes cost prohibitive along with all the bailouts. The bailouts have very little impact. When 4 wts got to 4.00 dollars the import gates got blown off there hinges. Some of those futures contracts are still being filled

 

[larryshoat]

It is going to be a rough row to hoe this year IMOO I
Look for stabilization next year with 4 wts holding 2.00 to 2.50 and improvement in 2018. Again that is for the premium grade calf for your area. Imports will turn down with the lower prices as shipping becomes cost prohibitive along with all the bailouts. The bailouts have very little impact. When 4 wts got to 4.00 dollars the import gates got blown off there hinges. Some of those futures contracts are still being filled

Yeah and the guys that bought those 4$ 4 weights are not gonna be back because the bank ain't gonna let em.

Larry

 

[Ojp6]

There's a lot of guys that bought 4.00 4 weights still rolling. A lot of backgrounders lost a lot of money but they are starting to make some back

 

[Caustic Burno]

There's a lot of guys that bought 4.00 4 weights still rolling. A lot of backgrounders lost a lot of money but they are starting to make some back

Got that right at .70 cents on low grading for hamburger.
I don't ever remember the gap from low dressing to prime being this wide
.70 to 2.10
This will cull people with cows from the cattleman

 

[larryshoat]

There's a lot of guys that bought 4.00 4 weights still rolling. A lot of backgrounders lost a lot of money but they are starting to make some back

Got that right at .70 cents on low grading for hamburger.
I don't ever remember the gap from low dressing to prime being this wide
.70 to 2.10
This will cull people with cows from the cattleman

You boys will have to show me here how a 450lb steer at 4$ worked. If they're still rolling it ain't because of that deal. Im talking about taking a 450 lb steer to 1400 pounds. The guys that put in heavier cattle did worse yet. As of Friday the choice select spread was .10, enough but not unusal.

Larry

 

[JMJ Farms]

Who was right in their predictions? I was right on the price. Time will tell about the year.

 

[RanchMan90]

Yep, we're there. What now? If the price will stabilize it will sure brighten the horizon.

 

[WalnutCrest]

If you buy at good prices, market your culls as best as you're able, market your seedstock to those whom will benefit, keep the best ones in your herd for as long as the continue to do their job, and look for opportunities to expand when others are fearful ... AND ... you can hold on long enough ... you have a good chance to make a very nice bump to your net worth.

A big key to this is managing the herd so they can do without even when times are good ... so that when times aren't good and you may have to cut back on or eliminate an input, the cattle won't suffer.

Good luck to everyone out there trying to put food on their own table while putting food on everyone elses.

 

[Son of Butch]

A sale near me showed stuff up a little. Good 500 pound steer could get close to 1.60. I can make a little at that. Some of my inputs are down to though.

Average here is 1.65 mine are still bringing 2.10 last month
Not having premium calf in the downturns is a killer.
Any nut should be able to turn profit at 4 bucks a pound.

TOP 500 lb black steers here 1.40
I know ya'll don't think much of holsteins, but last week I bought 20 hols feeder strs weighing 450# for 95 cents

 

[Stocker Steve]

Yep, we're there. What now? If the price will stabilize it will sure brighten the horizon.

Red and white meat production are both still increasing.
Lots of retained heifers still in the country.
Talking heads have been looking for a bounce, but we are two years away from knowing the bottom.
Margin operators have a better chance of making money in 2016/2017 than calf producers. Keep cull'in hard.

 

[farmerjan]

Holstein feeder steers in the 4-6 wts were bringing up to .60 here at the latest hol feeder sale a week or two ago...