Feeder cattle bottom price/time poll

Help Support CattleToday:

Feeder cattle market bottom projections

  • January/February/March 2016

    Votes: 17 29.8%
  • April/May/June 2016

    Votes: 6 10.5%
  • July/August/September 2016

    Votes: 2 3.5%
  • October/November/December 2016

    Votes: 20 35.1%
  • Sometime in 2017

    Votes: 8 14.0%
  • Sometime in 2018

    Votes: 3 5.3%
  • Sometime in 2019

    Votes: 1 1.8%
  • Later than 2019

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1.50

    Votes: 5 8.8%
  • 1.40

    Votes: 10 17.5%
  • 1.30

    Votes: 9 15.8%
  • 1.20

    Votes: 8 14.0%
  • 1.10

    Votes: 10 17.5%
  • 1.00

    Votes: 5 8.8%
  • Lower than 1.00

    Votes: 3 5.3%

  • Total voters
    57
  • Poll closed .
COOL labeling only affected Mexico and Canada
It violated NAFTA regulations. It had nothing to do with other countries that have far more concerns ( the inspection process mostly )

Imports are the wild card in this deal
When there is abundant supply prices will adjust accordingly
Export loses are a factor as well, when we lose exports to other countries will also affect domestic prices.
Lots of politics
It their world we just live in it
 
The US of A is the largest consumer in the world, 3 times more than China or Japan. We need to push our weight around, and our government needs to make fair deals for us.
We are strapped by unfair rules especially environmental issues and tariffs. The jerks in DC have no idea how to run a business or make a fair deal for it's citizens.
 
True Grit Farms":grdye98g said:
The US of A is the largest consumer in the world, 3 times more than China or Japan. We need to push our weight around, and our government needs to make fair deals for us.
We are strapped by unfair rules especially environmental issues and tariffs. The jerks in DC have no idea how to run a business or make a fair deal for it's citizens.

What was that deal that Obama just signed? TAARP? It's the deal with Asian countries for trade. Anyway, pretty much sold us down the river to those folks and not much of a blip about it in the media. However, Kim Kardashian is pregnant again, Adele released a new song and The Rock is going to star in a new movie (Ok, I only know the Adele thing to be true, but that's the gist of our media these days and it's a shame). We as a nation are fed 'Not News' all the time and it's scary as hell. We have such an uneducated electorate that it's no wonder that our country is so screwed. How can it not be?
 
True Grit Farms":3as5kko1 said:
The US of A is the largest consumer in the world, 3 times more than China or Japan. We need to push our weight around, and our government needs to make fair deals for us.
We are strapped by unfair rules especially environmental issues and tariffs. The jerks in DC have no idea how to run a business or make a fair deal for it's citizens.

Not going to happen. The world we knew in the past is gone forever, and unless we find a way to more efficiently compete on the current global market, we are destined to lose ground to those nations that can do it.
Take rent out of the USA household final consumption expenditures (the measure of actual consumerism/consumption) and the US is not nearly as far ahead of developing countries as it seems now.
Tariffs and evironmental regs aren't the only big problem in the US---an unrealistic and unsustainable standard of living is. We adopted our current standard of living in the 2 decades right after ww2, when we were the only industrialized country with any appreciable manufacturing capability left standing from the war. That standard of living and the economic powerhouse we were was not sustainable once the rest of the world rebuilt, and even more so once China decided embark on private ownership of it's own industrial corporations following the student protests in the late 90s.

And no, high import tariffs will not work well--they never have. They make a dent, but not much of one. It is impossible to force a nation's consumers to buy any given nation's exports, when they can buy their own goods cheaper. Heck, we can't even get our own consumers to buy our goods instead of foreign goods, and that, is the real problem. We love saving $$$ and all one has to do to see this is go to viewforum.php?f=10 and see all the accolades laid upon Kubota and Mahindra. Our "Buy American" is really just lip serrvice for most people--it sounds good, but in practice, well, we don't really practice it.
Things will get much worse, once India and the African sub-continent come on line as major manufacturers of durable goods. India, DOES have a very real "Buy Indian First" mindset, and we will be seeing their heavy industry show up on our shores very soon, followed in a few decades by durable goods from African nations.
In today's news, China will probably make a deal this week to buy Syngenta, which will put that nation's chem industry on a close par with Dow/Dupont in the pesticide/herbicide sector, and much closer to Monsanto in the seed sector.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... 43-billion
 
Seems like the consensus is that the lowest prices will be in the 4th quarter of this year but the current quarter comes in at a close second. The predicted price range varies from $1.10-$1.40. Should be interesting to look back on this later and see how accurate it was. Thanks for the participation.
 
I guess I look at things wrong, but I'm not too bummed about the price drop. I'm gonna miss selling $1,200 calves right straight off of the cow though. I enjoy backgrounding calves immensely. Probably more than cows and calves. I'll be able to afford more, with the same amount invested, and the risk of falling prices won't be quit as bad. I didn't buy as many calves in 2014-15 as I normally do, and the last quarter was a blood bath.
 
JMJ Farms":2mnt8xu5 said:
258 views and only 16 voted. Kinda makes me wonder if this is why we have the current elected leaders we have. Only takes a minute to vote. Just a thought.
Well if i could vote on the darn thing i would. For some reason i cant vote....... And i saw a quote somewhere that i have to agree with im not sure if i have it right but it went something like this......If voting made a difference it would be illegal.
 
pa farmhand":1s4xefvs said:
JMJ Farms":1s4xefvs said:
258 views and only 16 voted. Kinda makes me wonder if this is why we have the current elected leaders we have. Only takes a minute to vote. Just a thought.
Well if i could vote on the darn thing i would. For some reason i cant vote....... And i saw a quote somewhere that i have to agree with im not sure if i have it right but it went something like this......If voting made a difference it would be illegal.

Hello pa farmhand. Don't remember seeing you post before. The reason you can't vote is because the poll has already ended. Welcome to CT and hope to hear more from you.
 
JMJ Farms":3iac1zg1 said:
wbvs58":3iac1zg1 said:
JMJ, do you really want your domestic consumers to eat more chicken and pork if your meat runs out? Once you change eating habits it can be hard to get them back to your product especially when they have a significant price advantage. It is a problem all over the world, the red meats seem to have ceiling price where once it is exceeded consumers are driven away from the red meats to the cheaper white meats.

Ken

Yeah that'll be ok. If they decide chicken and pork are better I will build me some chicken houses and use the litter for fertilizer on my pastures. Win win. And I've wanted the hog market to come back since Smithfield took over. :lol2:

All jokes aside, I have no problem with Australia or Australians. But I do believe we should consume what we grow. And if there is an excess supply, then we can export it. If there is a shortage, we can grow more. I think America should take care of America. I see no reason to import beef from another country and export american beef. That makes no sense to me.
x2
 
We're getting down there below the break even point for a lot of producers. Especially a producer with average cows, and high inputs.
 
Break even has so many variables, but anyone really new to the game is going to have some trouble.

I'm waiting for land prices to correct, but I don't know if they're going to. Seems there's a disconnect between agricultural profit and land prices.
 
Commercialfarmer":bp9qo8oq said:
Break even has so many variables, but anyone really new to the game is going to have some trouble.

I'm waiting for land prices to correct, but I don't know if they're going to. Seems there's a disconnect between agricultural profit and land prices.
High land prices is the only thing keep the big farms, and city investors from buying up the whole country.
Just imagine the large farms of today with city investors as backers with 1960 land prices, and 2013 interest rates.
 
Commercialfarmer":3c0m8pc8 said:
Break even has so many variables, but anyone really new to the game is going to have some trouble.

I'm waiting for land prices to correct, but I don't know if they're going to. Seems there's a disconnect between agricultural profit and land prices.

Oh yeah, I see people post on here about feeding 10 plus rolls of hay per year. Break even definitely has variables.
 
With what i got in to getting started with fencing and every thing else it going to be a while tell i make any money
 

Latest posts

Top