Feeder cattle bottom price/time poll

[JMJ Farms]

From the cow/calf side, I don't know whether to sell and get back in later, or ride it out. Probably gonna ride it out because I ain't really wanting to start over. I can make it right now. If they go to a dollar, I can probably make it about two-three years. That's assuming inputs stay the same, as I'm sure they're not gonna get any cheaper. If inputs go up and feeders down, it's gonna get ugly fast.

 

[Bigfoot]

From the cow/calf side, I don't know whether to sell and get back in later, or ride it out. Probably gonna ride it out because I ain't really wanting to start over. I can make it right now. If they go to a dollar, I can probably make it about two-three years. That's assuming inputs stay the same, as I'm sure they're not gonna get any cheaper. If inputs go up and feeders down, it's gonna get ugly fast.

I guess I'll raise me till I die, or can't go. I've never really made anything off mine, in all the years of raised em. Sold some in the 70's for $25 cwt, and I sold em a few months ago for $2.80.

 

[Yougottabeshittingme]

Based on historical pricing I'm going to stick with spring as the lowest prices for the coming year.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Based on historical pricing I'm going to stick with spring as the lowest prices for the coming year.

I hope you're correct and notjustshittingme.

 

[JMJ Farms]

Based on historical pricing I'm going to stick with spring as the lowest prices for the coming year.

I hope you're correct and notjustshittingme.

Me and you both Tux

 

[M-5]

I sold a couple 5wts today at 1.71

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Good job M-5!

 

[JMJ Farms]

Which barn M5? If you don't mind me asking.

 

[M-5]

Dothan

 

[JMJ Farms]

Ten 4. Thanks. I was just gonna compare that to my local sales Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

[M-5]

Ten 4. Thanks. I was just gonna compare that to my local sales Tuesday and Wednesday.

They will post results tomorrow just go to dothan livestock. Com

 

[JMJ Farms]

Ten 4. Thanks. I was just gonna compare that to my local sales Tuesday and Wednesday.

They will post results tomorrow just go to dothan livestock. Com

Will do. Thanks.

 

[JMJ Farms]

Article from Cattle Range

Volatility
If you are unfamiliar with this term then you should probably stop reading. If you think volatility is the curse and bane of the industry, to what industry are you referring? During the week, last week, the stock market had declined 10% this year in only three short weeks. This is the equivalent of a $13 drop in fed cattle prices. Also last week oil fell to $26 barrel sending shock waves through the oil and gas industry. By Friday the March Oil contract had touched $32.

The origins of the word "volatile" refers to a winged creature, hence the development of its use as descriptive of flightiness. Today it applies to something that is transient, readily vanishing, difficult to seize, retain, or fix permanently. These are all appropriate terms or characterizations for difficult markets and lead us to the task of attempting to define the causes of this transient nature of a market -- any market. What makes a market move and why do some markets move so erratically and sometimes without easy explanations?

It might be said that we live in volatile times. The internet has delivered an overload of information and everyone is parsing that information for clues to direction of the economies and the particular markets within those economies. Traders are also looking for derivative trades or an indirect way to wage a bet on the direction of a market that is influenced by another market. It is too easy and usually well anticipated to go long corn following a dry spell in the corn belt. It might be better to bet on the impact of high corn on cattle prices. There are literally thousands of software programs gleaning information and waging bets on markets across the globe and sometimes the impacts reach the cattle futures and sometimes macroeconomic theories cause cattle futures to move and because the liquidity is not large, move fast.

Complicating the matter and adding to volatility is the cattle contract and the referenced cash price for live cattle. The live cattle contract was designed for a day long past with cattle sold FOB live at the feedyard. Today that number is dwindling and of that number, the reportable transactions frequently falls to 5% of the national fed cattle slaughter. Futures traders looking to the cash markets for live trades are finding none and forced to trade or not trade on limited and in some cases inaccurate information.

Reporting of transactions between cattle owners and beef packers is broken. USDA rulemaking on reporting fails to account for the myriad ways cattle trade today. The industry has failed to submit a plan to correct this problem to Mandatory Price Reporting at USDA. Both the pork industry and the poultry submitted suggested changes and those changes were adopted following the recent reauthorization of Mandatory Price reporting by Congress. Livestock associations are calling numerous meetings to discuss volatility but have neglected to address the cause by getting behind a simple plan to change USDA reporting methods.

Meanwhile the industry learns to live with markets that value its product daily with changes that will often vary $100/head between days. Friday's cash trade of $135 last week followed early week transactions in Iowa for $125. Feeder prices had fallen $10-15 cwt. in each of the last two sales in Oklahoma City. This makes rational marketing plans to capture a positive margin impossible when the weekly price changes exceed any historical profit margin.

Those involved in cattle ownership must learn to live with price changes. If the market moving up and down drives you crazy then you better get out. But, there is a large difference in markets that move up and down for reason and those careening up and down for NO reason.

 

[JMJ Farms]

One week left. Votes are all over the board.

 

[Bestoutwest]

I checked salebarn prices here and 500-600 were running close to $1.50 now. If we don't have a good water supply this year, some good fires, and a lack of hay, there's a lot of guys here who will have to sell down to survive. The last two years they've been shutting down water in May for the Owyhee River Basin b/c it hasn't been there. I think that if we have those three things this fall there will be a lot of cattle on the market.

Speaking of imports, some of the most popular cars come from Japan. However, I've heard that Japan does not allow for US cars to be sold there. Makes me glad I bought a Dodge truck this year. Also, congress just allowed for the country of import on beef to be removed. :bang: :bs: :deadhorse:

 

[Bestoutwest]

My real dilemma is my Wranglers made in Mexico haven't figured that one out just yet.

Aren't Levi's made in Oklahoma?

 

[True Grit Farms]

My real dilemma is my Wranglers made in Mexico haven't figured that one out just yet.

Aren't Levi's made in Oklahoma?

Levi Strauss & Co.
Robert D. Haas, Chairman
Philip Marineau, CEO
Peter A. Jacobi, President and COO
1155 Battery St.
San Francisco, CA 94111
(415) 501-6000
FAX (415) 501-3939
http://www.levistrauss.com

I do know that the Levi Strauss & company is very liberal and anti-gun. Haven't owned a pair in 40 years. And don't plan to, everyone needs to support those companies that support your principles and values.

 

[wbvs58]

Also, congress just allowed for the country of import on beef to be removed. :bang: :bs: :deadhorse:

I'd be proud to have the Australian name on any of our beef sold into the US, if people chose not to buy it because of it then so be it. Generally Australian food products have a good reputation world wide and it is only to our benefit to have it displayed. I would not like to think our name was removed from the product.

Ken

 

[backhoeboogie]

I do know that the Levi Strauss & company is very liberal and anti-gun. Haven't owned a pair in 40 years. And don't plan to, everyone needs to support those companies that support your principles and values.

I sure wish more people thought like True Grit

 

[JMJ Farms]

I do know that the Levi Strauss & company is very liberal and anti-gun. Haven't owned a pair in 40 years. And don't plan to, everyone needs to support those companies that support your principles and values.

I sure wish more people thought like True Grit

I try my best to only buy American Made products. I don't care what they cost. If I can't afford them I will do without unless it's an absolute necessity. And I have found few necessities.