Where's the money?

[ManyHorses]

In anticipation of the Canadian border reopening, Live Cattle futures have already been discounted 11 cents with the August contract. I would anticipate the Canadian market rebounding rather agressively as their supply heads south into the US thus creating a supply shortage in Canada and higher prices. There will be some 'give and take' over the short-term but Canadaian producers would do well to plan for a good late fall of 2005...

US producers may well have a tough time considering where we're at now, especially with rock bottom feedgrain prices, the US dollar at a huge discount, and feedlots busting out with overweight and oversupply of market ready cattle.

Seems like a little knowlege might go a long way.... Richard

 

[Campground Cattle]

I am throwin the BS flag on this thread. Sounds like P.T. Barnum and the circus is in town. Amazing this guy has figured out all by himself how to hedge his bets and always make astronomical profits. IMO doesn't know cow flop from wild honey.

Nuff Said

 

[Caustic Burno]

Sounds like the preacher isn't following his own sermon. If he knows so darn much why is he just now buying land & cattle.
Think he's playing with us like a cat with a mouse asking what kind of cattle to buy to see if we are a bunch of dummies'

 

[Cattle Rack Rancher]

In anticipation of the Canadian border reopening, Live Cattle futures have already been discounted 11 cents with the August contract.

How do you know that's entirely due to the Canadian market re-opening and not just part of the normal cattle cycle? Where are August futures compared to last year? Traditionally, Canada has supplied about 6% of American beef consumption. Currently, we are supplying between 2-3% as boxed beef. Imports of foreign beef are actually up since the Canadian border was closed although mostly from Australia and South America. How can you justify saying that a 3% increase in beef is going to cause a 12% decrease in price. It just doesn't add up.

 

[ManyHorses]

Actually a year ago in December 03 the August 04 contract was about 3 cents higher than the 05 contract is now... that's because the futures market was looking ahead to continued demand and short supply. But we can't compare 04 with 05 because the market is anticipating increased supply and possibly less demand i.e. the low-carb diet craze wearing thin.

While part of it is certainly due to the Canadian border reopening to live cattle imports, an consideration is the 'fear factor'... traders just don't know and would rather avoid supporting the contract at this early date. When the market is absent one side participation, the funds have a field day selling it down i.e. the grainmarkets coming into year end 05 with no demand news.

I don't know that we can compare Canadian boxed beef imports directly with Canadian live cattle... partly because it just doesn't work, and partly because of the numbers coming from Australia and South America. Anyway, a 3-4% increase in finished product could well take off something more than that 'on the hoof'... supply demand is not always linear.

Anyway, my approach is to err on the side of caution and hedge against lower cattle prices and higher feedgrain prices. With the holidays here, the funds should have covered their massive short positions and with the new tax year, we should experience farmer selling and still lower prices...

Thanks for asking... Richard

 

[Muratic]

Thanks for asking... Richard

Since you havn't figgered it out yet I'll tell you. Most of the people are not asking, they are argueing. :roll:

 

[jcissell]

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing here but don't you guys think you are a little hard on him? He seems to have some intelligence that could be useful to us.

 

[ManyHorses]

Ya know I'm new to this board but it's really been interesting...

On the board there're some guys really banging on me...

But my PM's received tell a different story...

Seems like there're lots of folks who'd maybe like to know more about what I have to offer, but the 'bullies' are causing them to stay off the board where it's most beneficial...

Richard

 

[brokenmouth]

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing here but don't you guys think you are a little hard on him? He seems to have some intelligence that could be useful to us.

Aint being hard on him just takin a little offense that somebody waltzes in here acting like everybodys so dang dumb their just lucky he showed up. Like he is the first man with enough genius to come along and save us from ourselves. Anybody whos been in cattle for long has heard a hundred of these strategies and has known a few people who tried em. Some made out nice for a while and then lost all their profits plus more. And a few when they started loosing would just keep drinking the cool aid keep chasing the dream and before they knew it they would take a couple of torpedoes Below the waterline. Enough to sink their entire operation.

What he is sayin aint nothing new. Been tried thousands of ways by thousands of people. If it worked like he says everybody would be doin it and they would teach it in high school ag class.

ok Mr manyhorses this is for you lets cut thru all the smoke and get to the bottom of this mess. Ill lay out a couple of what ifs and you can work your magic in front of everybody. if youll go ahead and spell out the details everybody can learn from you. make sure to give the symbols, the trade dates plus commissions and premiums so we can check on things and get that education youve been talkin about.

lets say 5-6 weights are bringing about $120 right now which they are and lets say 6-7 weights are bringing around $102 which they are.

#1 -- lets say my brother has between 60 and 70 uniform steers and right now. theyre averaging 350 to 400 pounds. They have to all be #1 and cant be any heifers right? What are you recommending

#2—lets say I only have about 15 steers at any given time thru the year that could be called #1 and would be uniform in weight. One group is still around 200-250 and another group is 450-500. What do I do

Then in a couple months lets repeat this schoolin and then lets do it again in a couple more months. don't forget to type slow and spell out all the details cause im pretty dumb and slow on the uptake.

I need to know execution dates, symbols, prices, premiums, commissions, downstream modifications to strategy and everything you would do between now and maturity of the contract.

im not PMing you im asking in front of everybody. seeing as how you dont have anything to gain or loose and how your just trying to save us folks with the dirty boots from our doom i know you wont mind going thru this excersize. i gave you two tests, each to be take 3 times. have at it professor

 

[Caustic Burno]

I think he got back under the porch brokenmouth, I see he answered other post since yours.

 

[Oldtimer]

I think he got back under the porch brokenmouth, I see he answered other post since yours.

Don't know where he went- but looking at the picture in the avatar- he sure looks like a used car salesman I used to know!!!!!!!!

 

[Fleckvieh DPB]

kindof looking forward to seeing the answer

i dont have many years under my belt.
this topic was quite interesting to me
al

 

[G&L Cattle]

He's making other topic quite interesting as well. Very thought provoking!
Do these guys come thru here often?

Glen

 

[Campground Cattle]

Brokenmouth must have skeerd him. Seems old BM is one of them dummies he was going to save, looks to me BM pretty educated Cattleman.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Little Red Bramer Ruby I have decided to go into the commodities market, we will have all the money we will ever need. To heck with trying to improve this bramer blood.
To invest in the maket PM me for investment guidance

 

[Muratic]

Boy Caustic, didn't think it had been that long since I saw ya. What's with the dorky hat? Thought you wore a real Texas hat?

 

[dun]

I think he got back under the porch brokenmouth, I see he answered other post since yours.

Don't know where he went- but looking at the picture in the avatar- he sure looks like a used car salesman I used to know!!!!!!!!

A slightly different view!

Since the "hedge" topic was on the Beginners board, I wonder if maybe some of his statements were looked at with a more jaundiced eye then they should have been.
A lot of people getting started into cattle don't have any knowledge of hedgeing or how it works.
Here's a guy that has some knowledge on the subject and is trying to make a complex issue simple enough that it can be understood. Didn't work with my understanding it, but I've alwasy left hedges to the feedlots when we retain partial ownership.
As I replied to a pm, anyone that relys strictly on advice over the internet probably deserves to loose their ..........! But all it may do is expedite their loosing it anyway.

dun

 

[D.R. Cattle]

Boy Caustic, didn't think it had been that long since I saw ya. What's with the dorky hat? Thought you wore a real Texas hat?

Looks like "Hoss Cartwright" from Bonanza to me.

 

[dun]

What's with the dorky hat?

I've got a Stetson that looks a lot like that, but it's had 30 some odd years of sweating, stomping, snow scooping, being used as a grain feeder, and just about any other task that a bucket can be used for.

dun

 

[rc]

I am also a newbie to cows. I train horses to feed my cows right now. I only hope to get something started to supplement working full time, help supplement horse training, tax purposes and have something to hand down to the kids. Cows also keep the land cleaned up. We only have 75 acres and the horses I train stay in the barn so we have all that acreage unused. I hope its somthing worth while to get into.