Virus in KY

[Caustic Burno]

Hate to break this to you but you will die.
So a couple of cities are hard hit in a virus outbreak. The numbers are still not coming back higher.
No different than the Spanish influenza pandemic, it hit certain regions much harder than others.
It may get me, nothing I can do about that. Just like nothing I could do about the flu killing my grandpa a couple great aunts and my sister two years ago.
Again place like NYC and Wuhan where people are stacked on top of each other any outbreak of whatever will be bad. On a normal day what is the death rate in the USA? By what I dug up it's 7500 a day for the USA and right at 500 a day for NYC.
Modern medicine has kept a lot of people alive much longer than the DNA stamp issued. Me for one, I would have been dead 15 years ago in the early 1900's.
The herd is always going to have something that culls the weakest.
It's been going on since beginning of time.
That's just biology.
Time will tell.

 

[herofan]

Hate to break this to you but you will die.

I'm sure that statement clears things up for a lot of people who didn't know.

Anyway, isn't part of the issue that the flu has been around and experts know how how it behaves, but they don't know how the corona virus will behave? If we just went on about our business, who's to say it wouldn't kill many times what the flu does?

 

[ga.prime]

The point is if the seasonal flu hit everybody the same month like Covid 19 is doing, and if the flu were as contagious as Covid 19 is, we would be in a world of hurt every year just like we are right now due to Covid 19.

You don't know that.
The 2009 H1N1 killed three times as many world wide as Covid has so far and the world wasn't peeing down their leg. Maybe since it started in the USA it wasn't as newsworthy.
The ring master media wasn't pumping it for ratings.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/41539-2009-swine-flu-death-toll-higher.html

So you're saying that NY and other cities has this issue every year with ventilator shortages, makeshift morgues, and funeral home strain related to the flu, but it's just not reported?

yep, thats that's what he's saying

 

[Caustic Burno]

Hate to break this to you but you will die.

I'm sure that statement clears things up for a lot of people who didn't know.

Anyway, isn't part of the issue that the flu has been around and experts know how how it behaves, but they don't know how the corona virus will behave? If we just went on about our business, who's to say it wouldn't kill many times what the flu does?

It's not new.
The corona virus has been known since the 1930's.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

 

[herofan]

Hate to break this to you but you will die.

I'm sure that statement clears things up for a lot of people who didn't know.

Anyway, isn't part of the issue that the flu has been around and experts know how how it behaves, but they don't know how the corona virus will behave? If we just went on about our business, who's to say it wouldn't kill many times what the flu does?

It's not new.
The corona virus has been known since the 1930's.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

So why are the experts acting like they don't know much about it?

 

[Caustic Burno]

You don't know that.
The 2009 H1N1 killed three times as many world wide as Covid has so far and the world wasn't peeing down their leg. Maybe since it started in the USA it wasn't as newsworthy.
The ring master media wasn't pumping it for ratings.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/41539-2009-swine-flu-death-toll-higher.html

So you're saying that NY and other cities has this issue every year with ventilator shortages, makeshift morgues, and funeral home strain related to the flu, but it's just not reported?

yep, thats that's what he's saying

If this had been the Spanish influenza today you couldn't have enough ventilators.
"The 1918 flu pandemic, thought to be the deadliest in human history, killed at least 50 million people worldwide (the equivalent of 200 million today), with half a million of those in the United States. It spread to every part of the world, affecting populations in Japan, Argentina, Germany and dozens of other countries."

Wake up to reality you can never or will you ever be able to plan enough for the next pandemic. It's only going to get worse as humanity continues to stack on top of each other.

 

[Caustic Burno]

I'm sure that statement clears things up for a lot of people who didn't know.

Anyway, isn't part of the issue that the flu has been around and experts know how how it behaves, but they don't know how the corona virus will behave? If we just went on about our business, who's to say it wouldn't kill many times what the flu does?

It's not new.
The corona virus has been known since the 1930's.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

So why are the experts acting like they don't know much about it?

Good question. Or does it not play well for media ratings.

 

[Buck Randall]

It's not new.
The corona virus has been known since the 1930's.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

So why are the experts acting like they don't know much about it?

Good question. Or does it not play well for media ratings.

Your conspiracy mongering is not based on logic. Coronavirus has been known to scientists since the 1930's. Covid 19 is a specific strain that was recently discovered. If scientists discovered a new species of fish tomorrow and said they didn't know much about it, you wouldn't argue with them and say, "Of course we do, we've known about fish for thousands of years". There is more diversity within families of viruses than most other living things.

 

[Caustic Burno]

So why are the experts acting like they don't know much about it?

Good question. Or does it not play well for media ratings.

Your conspiracy mongering is not based on logic. Coronavirus has been known to scientists since the 1930's. Covid 19 is a specific strain that was recently discovered. If scientists discovered a new species of fish tomorrow and said they didn't know much about it, you wouldn't argue with them and say, "Of course we do, we've known about fish for thousands of years". There is more diversity within families of viruses than most other living things.

I don't believe in conspiracies.
Again it is a virus with flu like qualities that mutates and jumps species.
Not a lot of difference corona jumped from a civets for SARS a camel for MERS and they think a bat for this strain. Corona was first discovered in chickens.

"Influenza is a virus that's spread from person to person. It originates, actually, among birds and other animals such as pigs, and new viral strains of influenza come to this country and to Europe from Southeast Asia"

 

[greybeard]

You may not believe in conspiracy theories, but they sure believe in you.

 

[Caustic Burno]

You may not believe in conspiracy theories, but they sure believe in you.

I am not a optimist or a pessimist but a realist Mr Space. I do believe you are scared and that's alright.

 

[Caustic Burno]

List of symptoms for you GB.

 

[Buck Randall]

Good question. Or does it not play well for media ratings.

Your conspiracy mongering is not based on logic. Coronavirus has been known to scientists since the 1930's. Covid 19 is a specific strain that was recently discovered. If scientists discovered a new species of fish tomorrow and said they didn't know much about it, you wouldn't argue with them and say, "Of course we do, we've known about fish for thousands of years". There is more diversity within families of viruses than most other living things.

I don't believe in conspiracies.
Again it is a virus with flu like qualities that mutates and jumps species.
Not a lot of difference corona jumped from a civets for SARS a camel for MERS and they think a bat for this strain. Corona was first discovered in chickens.

"Influenza is a virus that's spread from person to person. It originates, actually, among birds and other animals such as pigs, and new viral strains of influenza come to this country and to Europe from Southeast Asia"

Your posts about the virus are a textbook illustration of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Your conspiracy mongering is not based on logic. Coronavirus has been known to scientists since the 1930's. Covid 19 is a specific strain that was recently discovered. If scientists discovered a new species of fish tomorrow and said they didn't know much about it, you wouldn't argue with them and say, "Of course we do, we've known about fish for thousands of years". There is more diversity within families of viruses than most other living things.

I don't believe in conspiracies.
Again it is a virus with flu like qualities that mutates and jumps species.
Not a lot of difference corona jumped from a civets for SARS a camel for MERS and they think a bat for this strain. Corona was first discovered in chickens.

"Influenza is a virus that's spread from person to person. It originates, actually, among birds and other animals such as pigs, and new viral strains of influenza come to this country and to Europe from Southeast Asia"

Your posts about the virus are a textbook illustration of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Not really.
It's all about numbers that don't add up.
I could say you have the illusionary truth effect. Look it up Buck. I just happen to be familiar with the symptoms in people from my line of work when investigating explosions and fires.

Continue on barking to feel your butthole wiggle like a little fiest dog.

Edit:

Good read
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/we-could-be-vastly-overestimating-the-death-rate-for-covid-19-heres-why/

 

[Buck Randall]

I don't believe in conspiracies.
Again it is a virus with flu like qualities that mutates and jumps species.
Not a lot of difference corona jumped from a civets for SARS a camel for MERS and they think a bat for this strain. Corona was first discovered in chickens.

"Influenza is a virus that's spread from person to person. It originates, actually, among birds and other animals such as pigs, and new viral strains of influenza come to this country and to Europe from Southeast Asia"

Your posts about the virus are a textbook illustration of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Not really.
It's all about numbers that don't add up.
I could say you have the illusionary truth effect. Look it up Buck. I just happen to be familiar with the symptoms in people from my line of work when investigating explosions and fires.

Continue on barking to feel your butthole wiggle like a little fiest dog.

What numbers don't add up? We're at over 10,000 deaths already in this country, and it's just getting started. When this started you were adamant that it was just the sniffles. Now you've shifted the goal posts and insist that nothing could be done to prevent it, and that people should be willing to die to save the economy. Reality will continue to prove you wrong, and you'll continue to gaslight yourself into believing you had it right the whole time.

Edit to comment on the article: So what? We know that the death rate is going to be lower than the current numbers coming in. At the current infection rate, that still means a death toll in the six-figures before all is said and done. Even if it only kills a tenth of a percent, that's a lot if we let it infect everybody.

 

[greybeard]

Still 50k behind seasonal flu.
Time will tell.

:bs:
It would be kinda hard to be 50K behind flu deaths when there have only been 24,000 flu deaths this flu season.
Check it for yourself..CDC issues flu updates every week during flu season, which is going to end in 24 days.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Key Updates for Week 13, ending March 28, 2020
Laboratory confirmed flu activity as reported by clinical laboratories continues to decrease sharply and is now low. Influenza-like illness activity, while lower than last week, is still elevated. Influenza severity indicators remain moderate to low overall, but hospitalization rates differ by age group, with high rates among children and young adults.

Key Points

Nationally, the percent of laboratory specimens testing positive for influenza at clinical laboratories continued to decrease and is now low.
ILI activity decreased nationally but remains elevated.
Recent changes in healthcare seeking behavior, including increasing use of telemedicine and recommendations to limit emergency department (ED) visits to severe illness, as well as increasing levels of social distancing, are affecting the number of persons with ILI and their reasons for seeking care in outpatient and ED settings.
Laboratory confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rates for the U.S. population overall are higher than most recent seasons and rates for children 0-4 years and adults 18-49 years are the highest CDC has on record for these age groups, surpassing rates reported during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Hospitalization rates for school-aged children (5-17 years) are higher than any recent regular season but remain lower than rates experienced by this age group during the pandemic.
The percent of deaths associated with pneumonia and influenza is above the epidemic threshold. The increase is due to an increase in pneumonia deaths rather than influenza deaths and may be associated with COVID-19.
162 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported so far this season. This number is higher than recorded at the same time in every season since reporting began in 2004-05, except for the 2009 pandemic.
CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from flu.
Antiviral medications are an important adjunct to flu vaccine in the control of influenza. Almost all (>99%) of the influenza viruses tested this season are susceptible to the four FDA-approved influenza antiviral medications recommended for use in the U.S. this season.

Flu season runs from Oct 1 to May 1 according to CDC. We're over 6 months into 2019-2020 flu season and according to CDC 24,000 deaths.


1st case of Covid came to the USA on Jan 21 in Snohomish Washington.
1st US death in CONUS took place Feb 29 in the nursing home in Washington State as well.
We're only 2 months and 14 days into this Covid outbreak and have 10,800 confirmed coronavirus caused deaths, and if CDC is correct, some of the deaths attributed to influenza this season were actually caused by Covid-19.

I have no fear of death, haven't had since I was 20, and I sure have no fear of the economy being irreparably 'damaged.

I do agree tho, that the mortality projections are on the high side, but I also fully understand that they are made on the presumption that a lot of morons will try to go out in public and even return to work in the heavily populated regions or just keep working, spreading it about. I see it happening every time I go to town. Stupid people doing stupid things. Why? Because they're stupid and it's hard to fix stupid.
The current protocols that the states and this administration has in effect are working, just as they have in every other country they were implemented in.

 

[Caustic Burno]

What about these 63k souls? How come they weren't newsworthy?
CDC estimates as high as 63k this year from the flu.
Why no alarm there?
We don't even know the death rate of the flu and have fought it for generations. Unless specifically tested for the flu cause of death nine times out of ten will be listed pneumonia.
An average of 15k people die in NYC every month. The real question on NYC death rate is how many of these were sped up by Covid above normal.

It's The Validity Effect is the increase in perceived validity when a statement is repeated. By repeatedly exposing people to a given stimulus, their neutral feeling regarding it will eventually give way to increased likeability. ... The effect is also referred to as Repetition-Validity Effect or Mere Exposure Effect.

Buck only time will tell the outcome.
Those that believe in quarantine will say it saved lives, those that don't will say it made no difference in culling the herd. Who knows you or I might be one of the victims no matter what we do.
We will never know the real death rate as we don't know the infection rate.
We can't know the infection rate unless everybody is tested. When this is all said and done with a little algebra it will still be a guess.
Had a state official call me this afternoon discussing this.

I can't change anything that happens here all I can do is analyze the numbers.

 

[Caustic Burno]

For GB
Read the CDC report as high as 63K.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

 

[greybeard]

You read it. It's a seasonal estimate like all their flu reports are. Clearly says so.
" as high as 63K."
Also says as low as 24,000.
Your own link tells you that CDC views their weekly report as more 'in depth' than their preliminary burden estimates.

How does CDC monitor the progress of the flu season?

The overall health impact (e.g., infections, hospitalizations, and deaths) of a flu season varies from season to season. CDC collects, compiles, and analyzes information on influenza activity year-round in the United States and produces FluView, a weekly surveillance report, and FluView Interactive, which allows for more in-depth exploration of influenza surveillance data. The Weekly U.S. Influenza Summary Update is updated each week from October through May.

You actually have a point?

 

[sstterry]

Guys, after all this time, no one is going to change Caustic Bruno's mind (even though he is wrong :tiphat. I just hope that everyone here stays safe and this virus does not touch any of you, your families, or friends.