Talking Heads & 2022 Feeder Prices

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Stocker Steve

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Current thinking is heavy beef cow cull and moderating corn prices will trigger a rally in feeder prices -- going from U$S 160 ish currently to U$S 200 ish in early 2022. Sounds great except that my inputs went up more. Fuel and fertilizer are wild.

I think budgets next year will support forage and small grains for those of us who are in marginal corn areas. Have you run any numbers yet?
 
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Stocker Steve said:
Fertilizer is up 70 to 90% and climbing.
Hay is up 60 to 75% and holding.
Fuel is up 30 to 50% and climbing.

Point is you need to run a budget and look at the bottom line.
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Sounds impossible to make money if you spend that much and sell so cheap
 
We will be holding all our spring calves until after the first of the year, at least. Just moved 12 to pasture that were late fall 2020 calves, to a place where we didn't have anything. 6 are steers I bought back at 1.20 and 1.40 and I felt they needed to bring more than that. 6 others are heifers to keep for replacements. Attitudes will determine the heifers situation down the road. Steers will gain weight and since the bigger ones are bringing what the smaller ones have been, weight gain will be a plus on a place we already had paid for. They will eat for a couple months barring any bad snow. And we can load at the road so not a disaster to get in there. The rest will get moved home as grass gets short. Some fall rains brought on some of the cool season grasses so we still have some pasture at places we rotate. Got the couple old cows and calves off pasture and gone. Made a couple hundred on them so okay.

Might not make a lot, after figuring in costs, but we have more silage than we thought we would have due to some luck and timely rains that weren't alot but enough to give it the boost it needed. Just got done chopping about 15-16 acres and it made about 400 tons... 25+ tons to the acre we figured. Been getting $50/ton. Not tested but this is nicer silage than last year... Son sold about 30 tons to a neighbor and have 2 people wanting about 30-40 tons this winter... one brings his feed cart and we fill it and then he picks it up a day or 2 later; the other is a new person so will see... he has been buying some hay. We can sell it or not. I am not pushing as it will keep in the bags as long as we can keep the D@#*#D ground hogs and raccoons out of it... and hopefully won't have any problems with the few bears in the area. It will really stretch the hay and will let us market the feeders when it seems the best time....

Next years feed costs might be a different story, fertilizer and all going so high, fuel prices out of sight.... but we can make some on what we have in this silage and the hay. There is about another 20 acres Orchard grass he is going to try to make for sq bales that we can sell... and then see what the weather does. I will be out of commission for probably a minimum of a month with the knee replacements I am having done on Monday 25th.

Hoping that the spring prices will be up and that we will be able to cash in on this group of cattle... not sure how next year will look until it gets here. We mostly graze so not alot of inputs as far as feed goes for next year, but the hay value will be a big deal with fuel and fertilizer making up the bulk of the costs....
 
farmerjan said:
Next years feed costs might be a different story, fertilizer and all going so high, fuel prices out of sight.... but we can make some on what we have in this silage and the hay. There is about another 20 acres Orchard grass he is going to try to make for sq bales that we can sell... and then see what the weather does. I will be out of commission for probably a minimum of a month with the knee replacements I am having done on Monday 25th.

Hoping that the spring prices will be up and that we will be able to cash in on this group of cattle... not sure how next year will look until it gets here. We mostly graze so not alot of inputs as far as feed goes for next year, but the hay value will be a big deal with fuel and fertilizer making up the bulk of the costs....
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I reduced stocking rate 60% this spring and summer, then planted some fall annuals in August, so we are still grazing, and have enough stockpile to carry to Thanksgiving. Most rotational over grazers here are still overstocked.

I think folks with winter grazing can make money on cow/calf - - if they are able to keep replacement costs in line and willing to vary their stocking rate.
 
farmerjan might be a tad optimistic concerning the TKR! My little puddle of calves are home, weaned and green tagged.
They probably won't go out until April or so. I have them on more of a maintenance ration than usual by increasing the percentage
of forage to grain. I will reanalyze that the 1st of the year. Cows will start getting hay the 1st of November which is early but I decided
not to fall pasture any hay ground this year in the hopes of retaining snow for moisture and earlier growth next year.
Thinking about cranking up the Stihl and letting the propane company put their hands in some other pocket. Go Brandon!
 
@Lee VanRoss ... not trying to dispute anything you said... but what is TKR ? I reread my post and cannot seem to figure out what you used to come up with those initials...
If you are thinking that I am not figuring the corn silage correctly; I am not sure if it was 15 or 16 acres... but we have 2-200 ft bags , plus another 40-50 ft of a left over bag that we filled . 9 ft bags and the standard figuring is 1 1/4 ton to the foot with the 9 ft bag. We used to use an 8 ft bagger and it was 1 ton to the foot. With 200 ft bags you figure you lose 25 to 30 ft.... 15 ft on each end for tie off at the beginning, and then again at the finish end to fold and seal... So I am being conservative and figuring 150-160 ft full silage.. plus the extra that was about 80 plus feet left over from last year, and we figured half of that... AND he hauled 3 truck loads to a neighbor and the truck was weighed empty then loaded... and it was right around 10 tons each load.... so add 30 tons to the totals. Maybe you were referring to something else. Sorry that I didn't pick up on it.
The only cows we are feeding hay to are the group in the smaller 2 acre lot that are calving. Just to make checking and tagging easier. They will be going out to back stockpiled pasture when it works for son to do so. My getting the knees replaced next week will slow down some of what he is getting done, because I will not be here for at least 2 weeks because of going into a rehab.... he doesn't have time to worry with me and get things all done too so rehab is the best option for me and should get me up and going faster and better....don't know how much or how fast I will be up and going after that....
We cut about 30-40 head of cows over the last year. Mostly through attrition, old age, non breeding etc. Even though it was dry for the better part of the summer, because we had fewer cows, we are in pretty good shape on grass. Only had more cows than normal in one place and took out about one forth of them to take pressure off the spring there and then we got some rain and it picked up, and less cows solved that concern. Having less cows has helped with the supply of grass and being able to still have a good amount pasture available to rotate around, to use for some time yet.
 
I don't go to Casinos but I gamble lots with cattle. Considering the current calf market the heifers will stay home unless a buyer wants them at my price. Likely will put in some bred cows over the winter.

Then add 100 or so little cheap calves from the sale.

Millionaires next year!
 
I was wondering if I could make the old cow deal work this next year with hay prices so high. Well I had one old cow that got caught late. Hauled her and 7 more for B to the sale on Wednesday. I got a whooping 26 cents for a 960 pound thin cow. B had one worse. Got 11 cents for an old 920 pound cow.
So if all I have to do is out bid the kill buyers for bred cows...... I believe I can feed expensive hay. B was saying that if you can buy open 3 year olds cheap you could make out on rebreeds. I am going to have to attend a few sales to see how things are selling.
 
Dave said:
I was wondering if I could make the old cow deal work this next year with hay prices so high. Well I had one old cow that got caught late. Hauled her and 7 more for B to the sale on Wednesday. I got a whooping 26 cents for a 960 pound thin cow. B had one worse. Got 11 cents for an old 920 pound cow.
So if all I have to do is out bid the kill buyers for bred cows...... I believe I can feed expensive hay. B was saying that if you can buy open 3 year olds cheap you could make out on rebreeds. I am going to have to attend a few sales to see how things are selling.
Click to expand...
I am thinking there are ways to make money in this. Just like every other year.
 
Dave said:
I was wondering if I could make the old cow deal work this next year with hay prices so high. Well I had one old cow that got caught late. Hauled her and 7 more for B to the sale on Wednesday. I got a whooping 26 cents for a 960 pound thin cow. B had one worse. Got 11 cents for an old 920 pound cow.
So if all I have to do is out bid the kill buyers for bred cows...... I believe I can feed expensive hay. B was saying that if you can buy open 3 year olds cheap you could make out on rebreeds. I am going to have to attend a few sales to see how things are selling.
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Could have bought B's cow...
 
An old saying is "you can not afford to feed your way out of a drought". This is not always true, like most sayings. I would need calves over U$S 2.50 to buy local hay for a big cow this winter. I have some rye in for early spring grazing, but with our really dry subsoil...

I think light calves could work. I think feeding replacement heifers byproduct could work. Will need a lot of appreciation to win a 2021-2022 gamble.
 
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farmerjan> Sorry this took so long... TKR and cows are two different subjects.. TKR is Total Knee Replacement which is not exactly
what you wrote. I went back and reread what you posted and you simply stated knee replacements. Had you been scheduled for
Total Knee Replacement (TKR) it is very unlikely that both knees would be scheduled. The surgeon will open you up like a tin can
and replace the knee with an artificial one. You most likely need a walker or a cane, [I had Herman and Tubal] Herman was carved
from a Buckeye limb and Tubal was made of aluminum of course. Do the regimen prescribed for you and recovery will come at its
own pace. I am not about to debate what anyone does with cattle I do not have to pay for the feed, labor or cash the check
on. Do what either works or trips your trigger (or both if you're lucky) Enjoy the day LVR
 
@Lee VanRoss ... I am having bi-lateral total knee replacement. Yes , both at once. Having the Mako procedure. Robotics and all. My physical therapists' mom had hers done last year by this same dr... I had been researching it for awhile and then to get such a good recommendation... The recovery rate is considered better than the "old style" normal knee replacement. I will go into what they call acute therapy for 1-2 weeks. But after talking to the dr and then serious discussion with my PT, I believe that it is the best solution. Both told me, as well as the patient advocate and the nurse in the office, that they will have me up in 24 hours and will be walking. My pt's mom was totally released from pt and care in 12 weeks... She is 10 yrs older and my pt said not near as active as I am... I am in nearly unbearable pain and it is not a question of if, but how soon I could do it. Had to plan to do it after our normal hay season as there is just my son and I to do the farm work. Have also been told by someone else that getting both done, the recovery is better because I will be putting equal amounts of pressure and stress on them equally... and I do not have one that is better than the other, so the recovery will be even.
Took me 5 years to find a dr I felt confident in and to do the ankle replacement and could not have had a better result if I had grown a new one instead.... so I hope that my research and determination to do this is as rewarding.
 
Lee VanRoss said:
farmerjan> Sorry this took so long... TKR and cows are two different subjects.. TKR is Total Knee Replacement which is not exactly
what you wrote. I went back and reread what you posted and you simply stated knee replacements. Had you been scheduled for
Total Knee Replacement (TKR) it is very unlikely that both knees would be scheduled. The surgeon will open you up like a tin can
and replace the knee with an artificial one. You most likely need a walker or a cane, [I had Herman and Tubal] Herman was carved
from a Buckeye limb and Tubal was made of aluminum of course. Do the regimen prescribed for you and recovery will come at its
own pace. I am not about to debate what anyone does with cattle I do not have to pay for the feed, labor or cash the check
on. Do what either works or trips your trigger (or both if you're lucky) Enjoy the day LVR
Click to expand...
Tubal! I see what you did there brother 😃.
 

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