From what I have seen over the years, I agree with it being the former. I have noticed that the price for replacements, private sale, doesn't really coincide with the price of beef heifers by the pound at the sale barns. Most have a price that is more or less fixed. Most have them sold before they are weaned. And most have a base of customers that buy from them each year. One guy I have dealt with the past 3-4 years, keeps a herd of about 250 fb Brahmas, and will breed them for whatever kind of f1 you want. He will use sexed semen, and breed you some br x Herf, br x black herf, br x Simm, br x Char, Br x Angus or breed them to a Brahma. ....whatever you want. If a man orders say, 20 Br x Herf, he will breed 22 or 23 of them, so sometimes he has 1-3 for sale that aren't pre-sold. At the end of the booking season, if he doesn't have 250 pre-sold, he uses sexed for male black Ang or Simm semen on whatever is left, to get some market steers to sell. And does 10 to sexed for male with Chiania semen, for a client that wants 8 a year to go to central America somewhere.
For annual customers, you will pay the price you started at. Someone that started with him 5 years ago at $1600, still pay $1600 every year, etc. I bought from him the first time in 2021... I think... at $1750, so that's what I would pay this year. . New customers this year are at either $2000 or $2500, I don't remember which. Most of the successful ones that I know, that have been in the business for a while, do it like this. There are some, that may have production sales, but you'd be more vulnerable to the going market prices that way. And I have seen some just at local cow sales. The seller or auctioneer will usually speak for them, and tell about them,. so they may bring the top dollar for heifers that day, but this, to me, would be the riskiest, especially in down market times.
