plbcattle":2yh0x70n said:
please explain. i will be glad to show you the sales records of my cattle sales
Explain me saying that with your figuring you would lose plenty of money in the cattle business? Okay, but not for your benefit because I know that you will never be convinced. But, since this is the
Beginner's Board, I think we owe it to them to give
sound advice. So, here goes---
First off, I don't need to see your sales records. I have no reason not to believe you. But sales are only part of the equation, aren't they? What about expenses? Producing 100% weaned calf crops and weaning 800 pound calves must be pretty expensive. Do you even keep up with expenses? You've made some statements here that are taking for granted things that will simply not happen. For example:
You lead people to believe that they will sell 100 weaned calves from 100 cows? It just doesn't work that way. Selling ninety would be more realistic, but 85 would also be more likely than 100. But you've still got the expense of paying for 100 cows and keeping them up.
You tell them that they can sell $75,000 worth of calves from 100 cows? That is asking for trouble if anyone uses that figure for their budgeting. You speak of weaning 700-800 pound bull calves. Most cattlemen don't produce those. And there's a price to pay for trying. Maximum production doesn't always equal maximum profit. Eight hundred pound calves just wouldn't be profitable for many of us to try to wean. Buying maximum production isn't an option for somebody just starting out. It takes time and money to build a herd like that. Or a lot of feed. We should be honest with people and tell them that.
You talk about putting all of your land, cattle and equipment on one note?
plbcattle":2yh0x70n said:
...and you note which contains all your land,cattle equipment has been paid down some....
Where do you get a deal like that? Not at a bank that deals with cattle, surely. And somebody just starting out isn't going to get to do that. The only people I've ever seen do that are the people that don't need to borrow money, anyway. They already have plenty of collateral or cash to put up. And even if you could get it all on one note, why would you want to? You talked about building equity in equipment and cattle. It seems to me that it would take a long time to build any equity on equipment and cattle with the interest from that land purchase stacking up against your equipment and cattle liens every year.
You mentioned paying on your loans throughout the year?
plbcattle":2yh0x70n said:
...you go throughout the year paying the note...
Doesn't sound to me like you've ever depended on a calf crop to pay on your notes. Most of us just get paid once a year---when we sell calves. Our bankers understand that they will get paid the same way---once a year. That's if everything goes well. When it doesn't, we just have to pay interest and renew.
We should also be honest with beginners and ourselves about these record markets. I know some of you think there will never be another poor day and we'll have record markets from now on. I hope you're right. History of the cattle cycle tells us that you are wrong.
We need to be honest with people that want into the cattle business. Realistic with figures. To tell someone that they can get all the way through the end of a land note with today's cattle prices isn't being very honest.
I'll tell you what let's do, plb. Instead of arguing about it now, let's just meet back here on the other side of the cattle cycle. Then we can see what kind of figures we have to work with. I use conservative figures making my plans, so I'm pretty sure I'll still be here then. Will you?