How to Understand Cattle Pricing and Current Prices

[rocfarm]

This is a great breakdown of how to understand the cattle market.

https://krex.k-state.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/2097/40640/MaggieSmith2020.pdf?sequence=3

 

[gcreekrch]

Kind of like understanding women, just go with the mood she’s in today and hope she keeps it!

 

[SBMF 2015]

Raising cattle is like playing checkers. Marketing cattle is like playing Olympic level chess.

 

[rocfarm]

Raising cattle is like playing checkers. Marketing cattle is like playing Olympic level chess.

That’s why I posted the thesis. It seems the best thing to do is let that research dictate your moves.

There’s a lot to unpack there.

Also, it makes it implies pretty strongly that, if you are new to the game, you should keep it pretty conservative and simple because you are not going to be competitive until you learn a few things and have seen a few years of experience in a lot of areas.

Props to the author. She did a great job.

 

[gcreekrch]

When you smell a profit, keep them.

When you see a profit, sell them.

On occasion, the first loss is the best one.

 

[kenny thomas]

That’s why I posted the thesis. It seems the best thing to do is let that research dictate your moves.

There’s a lot to unpack there.

Also, it makes it implies pretty strongly that, if you are new to the game, you should keep it pretty conservative and simple because you are not going to be competitive until you learn a few things and have seen a few years of experience in a lot of areas.

Props to the author. She did a great job.

Sometimes it's better to follow the advice of someone that is actually doing it rather than exploring research done for a thesis. Research is great but sometimes doesn't fit in the real world. But a good combination of both sides is good.
And sometimes something happens that messes it all up. Oprah Winfrey caused many of us to loose lots of money with a comment she made. Price dropped almost instantly. Neither research or experience could have predicted that. If she comes on TV I turn the channel.

 

[kenny thomas]

How Oprah Got Sued for Dissing a Burger

A brief history of food-libel laws.

www.britannica.com

 

[rocfarm]

Sometimes it's better to follow the advice of someone that is actually doing it rather than exploring research done for a thesis. Research is great but sometimes doesn't fit in the real world. But a good combination of both sides is good.
And sometimes something happens that messes it all up. Oprah Winfrey caused many of us to loose lots of money with a comment she made. Price dropped almost instantly. Neither research or experience could have predicted that. If she comes on TV I turn the channel.

Agree, to a point. But guys doing it really don’t think people with a herd of 10 head are worth teaching most of the time, and sometimes smaller producers’ interests seem to be in direct conflict with other industry players, much like CED and CEM are in genetic conflict in most bull genetics.

And lots of folks starting out get some really bad advice from people. Saw one guy advise someone starting out, who as a beginner had no experience whatsoever with cattle, to buy the absolute ‘best’ cows he could afford. Really? Spend 30,000 to 40,000 on cattle when you have no experiencing caring for them or marketing them? Before you think about fences, water, handling equipment, etc.?

So I appreciate the research. At the very least it provides the needed caveats.

 

[rocfarm]

Sometimes it's better to follow the advice of someone that is actually doing it rather than exploring research done for a thesis. Research is great but sometimes doesn't fit in the real world. But a good combination of both sides is good.
And sometimes something happens that messes it all up. Oprah Winfrey caused many of us to loose lots of money with a comment she made. Price dropped almost instantly. Neither research or experience could have predicted that. If she comes on TV I turn the channel.

Had a chance to be in the ‘elite’ group a few times. Have always been glad I chose not to join.

Don’t trust any billionaires. If they think you are unprotected, they’ll take what you worked hard for. Lesson there is to always understand your market and have a plan B, C, or even the ability to walk away when they aren’t playing logically.

The research in that thesis will help with that planning.

 

[kenny thomas]

I don't know any billionaires that are true cattle people. I'm talking about people that make their living with cattle or at least a good portion.
The rich ones are actually more likely to follow some of the experts from the university because it can be taken off the taxes whether its working or not. We as poor people have to many times do what we can best afford to match our goals. I attend lots of seminars, go to lots of trainings but in the end try to use what I learn and match it to my farm. Not always by the book either.

 

[kenny thomas]

Ever seen any research on cattle trading? One facit of cattle that can make money with minimal inputs no matter the cattle price.

 

[50/50Farms]

Agree, to a point. But guys doing it really don’t think people with a herd of 10 head are worth teaching most of the time.

I call bullcrap. If you have the right approach and you're good at talking to people and maybe willing to lend a little work for your trade on knowledge, then the only reason someone won't give you some lessons, tips, insights, experience, etc is if they're 1. Too busy, which ain't their fault or 2. An ass, which is their fault but is rarely treated like something they can fix.

And the likelihood that everyone you ask is one of the two is pretty low, especially number 2. If you ask 10 people and they're all asses, it's probably the other way around.

 

[rocfarm]

I don't know any billionaires that are true cattle people. I'm talking about people that make their living with cattle or at least a good portion.
The rich ones are actually more likely to follow some of the experts from the university because it can be taken off the taxes whether its working or not. We as poor people have to many times do what we can best afford to match our goals. I attend lots of seminars, go to lots of trainings but in the end try to use what I learn and match it to my farm. Not always by the book either.

Was talking about Oprah as the billionaire. And, no, I don’t imagine many billionaires would be true cattlemen.

 

[kenny thomas]

Was talking about Oprah as the billionaire. And, no, I don’t imagine many billionaires would be true cattlemen.

Yes she is a billionaire. Sorry my confusion.

 

[rocfarm]

I call bullcrap. If you have the right approach and you're good at talking to people and maybe willing to lend a little work for your trade on knowledge, then the only reason someone won't give you some lessons, tips, insights, experience, etc is if they're 1. Too busy, which ain't their fault or 2. An ass, which is their fault but is rarely treated like something they can fix.

And the likelihood that everyone you ask is one of the two is pretty low, especially number 2. If you ask 10 people and they're all asses, it's probably the other way around.

Well, 50/50. I’ll give you this: every interaction I’ve had with you on this site had proven that you always know what you think. We might just have to agree to disagree sometimes.

 

[rocfarm]

Yes she is a billionaire. Sorry my confusion.

And don’t like cattlemen very much, either.

 

[kenny thomas]

I just had a thought. I'm going to ask my extension agent for advice from Virginia Tech on cattle trading. Others try it if you get a chance. I bet we get no advice.

 

[rocfarm]

Ever seen any research on cattle trading? One facit of cattle that can make money with minimal inputs no matter the cattle price.

You are right. But more capital intensive and more skills involved IMO. But there are many who seem to do well at it.

 

[50/50Farms]

Well, 50/50. I’ll give you this: every interaction I’ve had with you on this site had proven that you always know what you think. We might just have to agree to disagree sometimes.

Sure, I give opinions away like kittens. And sometimes I'm wrong, and I'm very willing to walk away, apologize, or learn when I am. But I've been consistently involved with ag for most of my life and never had somebody blow me off because they don't think it's worth teaching somebody who only had a little setup going on. I've had a lot of really kind people, usually older but not always, give me plenty of their time, insights, and even sometimes a chance to get hands on, and it's rarely cost me a dime. You do you, though.

 

[kenny thomas]

You are right. But more capital intensive and more skills involved IMO. But there are many who seem to do well at it.

The skills yes, capital intensive maybe not. If you take $10,000 and turn it over once a week or once a month you still only have $10,000 out at any given time. Make 10% each trade and do that 12 times a year is 120%. That 10,000 is now 22,000. If you do it once a week it's 520% so 520,000. Still only 10,000 out at any given time. Of course that's not all profit but you get what I mean.