Tod Dague
Well-known member
Agreed more accuracy does not mean more consistent just gives us a better idea as to where his average will land in relation to other bulls.ollie'":1mmzxbr0 said:
For the EPD Naysayers
- Thread starter MikeC
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MikeC
Well-known member
Tod Dague":2cwzlzgw said:
But, there is NO way to tell if those calves are more consistent other than to have calves off these bulls.
EPD's simply have the ability to help narrow the selection choice down between the millions of bulls raised each year.
That's why they call it "Estimated" Progeny Differences.
DOC HARRIS
Well-known member
[quoteA balance of Phenotypic and Genetic decisions are always the best method to me. [/quote]Several times in the past I have told myself to quit wasting my time in attempting to explain, reason with, justify, make clear and/or facilitate the purposes and, at least to me, the clearly obvious bare facts which surround the use of Expected Progeny Differences IN CONJUNCTION WITH the unimpeachable implementation of the intelligence of an experienced Cattleman, and the abilities that he has acquired in a lifetime of selection beef seedstock. I have argued with myself (and others) in trying to understand the reluctance that some breeder's exhibit in denying the existance of subliminal intelligence other than their own good common sense. . . . . .And I think that I have at last struck on at least a partial answer to the unimaginable resistance that some seemingly intelligent breeders have in accepting EPD's as a ( please carefully read my lips here, Folks!) TOOL!. EXPECTED Progeny Differences (EPD's) are to be used as a TOOL, an Instrument, an Agent, a Means to an End, a Helping Device which should be utilized IN CONJUNCTION WITH - - -(Trumpet and Drum Roll here please) - - - PHENOTYPE! That answer as to why there are some who refuse to consider using EPD's - ?? EGO! They don't want to admit that there may be a better way than what they have used all their lives. And - Hey! - Maybe there is a better way. I don't happen to think so, but - what the heck! What do I know??
I read the posts that are presented here, and it seems to me that some of you people have NEVER HEARD OF USING Genetics (EPD's) and Appearance (Phenotype) in concert with each other!! In preparation for attempting to improve the quality and profitability of one's BU$INE$$ (Beef production), obtaining the VERY BEST seedstock is imperative. The PROPER management of how an animal looks and all the traits and characteristics which go with that appearance, and what an animal genetically IS is helpful for a successful beef operation - NOT absolutely necessary - but HELPFUL. The combination of Phenotype and EPD's HELPED the Holstein breed become the producers of Milk Cows whose Total Milk Productrion is the highest in world History. Of course, without the use of EPD's, the cows would still have given milk - -but just not as MUCH! Bu-u-u t, perhaps some Dairymen really didn't want to have their cows produce much milk. It would just have taken longer to do the milking chores!! So they ignored the use of EPD's, and just used their eyes and experience to choose their seedstock. And that's just fine, if that's what they want to do. BUT - that doesn't mean that EPD's are worthless, or that some breeders are LIARS. Maybe some are, but not ALL of them are!
Well - - - -I have tried once again to bring a little common sense and reason into these posts, but I am probably still wasting my time. Every animal has the Genetic make-up which comprises what they ARE (EPD's). Some are good, some are not so good, and some are just plain worthless. Perhaps the best way to select GOOD, Profitable seedstock is to just shut your eyes and - - guess! Maybe that good LOOKING bull really doesn't have such a high BW that you will spend your Winter nights pulling calves. Or - -Perhaps that good LOOKING cow really doesn't have the Mothering ability to wean a calf that weighs more than 386 pounds. So what? It is a good LOOKING calf, and after all, isn't THAT what they pay money for at the market? Good LOOKING calves?
. . . . and the Accuracies percentages, even when they are 99%, don't REALLY mean very much. But - - maybe they DO!
Anyway - - that is my take on trying to improve your BOTTOM LINE! Give it some "open-minded" thought. I don't know of ANY really successful Purebred producers who do not use EPD's! But maybe that is just circumstantial evidence! Who knows??
DOC HARRIS
I read the posts that are presented here, and it seems to me that some of you people have NEVER HEARD OF USING Genetics (EPD's) and Appearance (Phenotype) in concert with each other!! In preparation for attempting to improve the quality and profitability of one's BU$INE$$ (Beef production), obtaining the VERY BEST seedstock is imperative. The PROPER management of how an animal looks and all the traits and characteristics which go with that appearance, and what an animal genetically IS is helpful for a successful beef operation - NOT absolutely necessary - but HELPFUL. The combination of Phenotype and EPD's HELPED the Holstein breed become the producers of Milk Cows whose Total Milk Productrion is the highest in world History. Of course, without the use of EPD's, the cows would still have given milk - -but just not as MUCH! Bu-u-u t, perhaps some Dairymen really didn't want to have their cows produce much milk. It would just have taken longer to do the milking chores!! So they ignored the use of EPD's, and just used their eyes and experience to choose their seedstock. And that's just fine, if that's what they want to do. BUT - that doesn't mean that EPD's are worthless, or that some breeders are LIARS. Maybe some are, but not ALL of them are!
Well - - - -I have tried once again to bring a little common sense and reason into these posts, but I am probably still wasting my time. Every animal has the Genetic make-up which comprises what they ARE (EPD's). Some are good, some are not so good, and some are just plain worthless. Perhaps the best way to select GOOD, Profitable seedstock is to just shut your eyes and - - guess! Maybe that good LOOKING bull really doesn't have such a high BW that you will spend your Winter nights pulling calves. Or - -Perhaps that good LOOKING cow really doesn't have the Mothering ability to wean a calf that weighs more than 386 pounds. So what? It is a good LOOKING calf, and after all, isn't THAT what they pay money for at the market? Good LOOKING calves?
. . . . and the Accuracies percentages, even when they are 99%, don't REALLY mean very much. But - - maybe they DO!
Anyway - - that is my take on trying to improve your BOTTOM LINE! Give it some "open-minded" thought. I don't know of ANY really successful Purebred producers who do not use EPD's! But maybe that is just circumstantial evidence! Who knows??
DOC HARRIS
I have enjoyed your thread so far. It seems to me that an epd's with high accuracys are just identifiying where the bell in the bell curve is. The higher the accuracy the more precisely we have pinpointed where the mean is. This is where the problem with buying off pedigree and epds alone comes in.
I think you would be foolish to buy unproven bulls off epds and pedigree alone. (i am an epd fan) I would want to see in herd ratios, ultrasound data, parent ratios, actual weights of animal and parents then i would have to give the beast a good looking over. When that is completed i would evaluate all of the information and look for incongruities then make a decision.
Take the numbers for what they are, use them as a way to make even better decisions. Epds are agreat tool but they aren't there to replace any of your other tools.
my two bits worth .25
DOC HARRIS
Well-known member
Beef11":z0ls7yib said:
Right. And that comment is worth MORE than a quarter!
DOC HARRIS
DOC HARRIS
Well-known member
Just to put a final "Period" on this post about EPD's, there is an article on the Front Page of the CattleToday page today titled "Make Sound Judgements About Herd Sires". Think what you wish about EPD's, and either use them or don't use them, but it is foolish to 'bad mouth' something that is unquestionably a valuable tool to use for your own benefit! It is your own business whether you wish to use everything that you can to improve your business, or just to play a relaxing game and stay at the same level of quality and intensity.
I suggest that you read the article very carefully.
DOC HARRIS
I suggest that you read the article very carefully.
DOC HARRIS
Caustic Burno
Well-known member
DOC HARRIS":1q0aw219 said:
Doc its not the EPD's I don't trust those numbers are not going to lie, it's the people mailing the numbers in.
MikeC
Well-known member
Caustic Burno":2khc0svz said:
Caustic, Please explain to me how falsifying the data can skew the EPD's without coming back to haunt us later.
I am sure there are lots of other breeders who would like to know this trick as well.
Caustic Burno
Well-known member
MikeC":q3fddxtz said:
You don't think breeders lie on BW and birth dates.
aplusmnt
Well-known member
Any old timers on here have a practical example of when they did not have epd's and now that they use them?
Did you pull calves lots more in the old days than you do now that you have BW Epd?
Do you have heavier Calves now that you use Epd's than you did years ago before them?
Do you think the art of picking good cattle might be getting lost in the fact buyers spend more time looking at the catalog of epd's than back in pens looking at the Animal?
Did you pull calves lots more in the old days than you do now that you have BW Epd?
Do you have heavier Calves now that you use Epd's than you did years ago before them?
Do you think the art of picking good cattle might be getting lost in the fact buyers spend more time looking at the catalog of epd's than back in pens looking at the Animal?
aplusmnt":1rkzuvec said:
There may be a few, but if they;ve been at it long they're doing both or still relying on "the eye".
Calves are more consistant, fewer pulled calves and they're bigger at weaning and the daughters typically raise a better calf. But, that may just be a property of better overall genetics and not directly attributable to EPDs. But I'm a rookie at this stuff. I never was able to figure out EBVs when they came along, EPDs seem to be easier for me to comprehend.
dun
MikeC
Well-known member
I am sure that SOME breeders have turned in questionable numbers. Do I think the immediate advantages outweigh the consequences? No.
To say that you don't trust the totality of EPD's based on a minority few "mavericks" is unjustifed.
Heritability of BW is 49%, the highest of any other traits.
I am curious. What would be the advantage of writing down wrong birthdates?
ollie'
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I think when the numbers get into the range of .90 the numbers are pretty accurate. The still don't provide much information to help me make breeding decisions. If a bull is used enough to make his bw epd .90 then I have already heard how easy or difficult his calves come. It's the same with all the other numbers. Virgin bulls epd's don't tell me any more than I already know by knowing the breeder, their management, the pedigree, the actual weights and the phenotype of the animal.
George Monk
Well-known member
I am a rookie in this game and need every bit of help to select bulls. We have bought bulls from a breeder that is six hours away and has 175 bulls. The distance and the sheer number of bulls make this a difficult selection process. To HELP in the selection process I "ranked" the whole list of bulls. I gave each bull a number based on the range that a certain epd fell in. ie the best YW was 96 so a bull that fell in the range of 85-96 got a 1 for that epd. the other epd's that I selected for were ranked in this fashion. After that process I selected the top 20 bulls with the lowest score. We did the same for ultrasound data. THEN we looked at the bulls. They had to "look" good to make the final cut. AND I took the best Hereford breeder in our area and had him evalute my selections. (The first time we went there my banker, who raises charlois) even went so I had a lot of great experience)
I can't imagine how much I would second guess my selections if I didn't have these available tools. I valued the opinion of my friend as much as I did my elimination process.
don't know if this is pertainent but I believe in predictable genetics.
I can't imagine how much I would second guess my selections if I didn't have these available tools. I valued the opinion of my friend as much as I did my elimination process.
don't know if this is pertainent but I believe in predictable genetics.
MikeC
Well-known member
ollie'":14q44m1f said:
Ollie, you have your mind made up about EPD's and you are convinced that you can pick cattle without them. That's fine with me. That is surely your perogative and has been done for many, many years.
But cattle have come a long way in terms of growth over the past. I contribute this to EPD's in that they have forced us to record data that we might not normally have done without them.
Having said that. Carcass EPD's and Feed Efficiency Epd's, which are coming soon, used in conjunction with the other EPD's is our next salvation in improving carcass merit and profit but will never completely take the place of observation. They are to be used in conjunction with each other.
The research into calculating and tabulating EPD's has brought us unprecedented knowledge. When the newness of EPD's wear off, we will be able to get down to serious business as a whole.
aplusmnt
Well-known member
MikeC":26u6wl3c said:
Couldn't it be advantages if the Bull seemed more developed, more growth, wouldn't his stock go up if he had a better daily gain, and wouldn't these later figures affect his Epd's for WW and so on? Seems like being a couple months older in real life vs his papers would help them figures. But I am newer to this than dun and read my signature below :lol:
I am in the learning faze of this epd thing but some questions that arise in my feeble mind is.
The epd's seem to say that is what an animal would do in comparison to others in the breed. But in reality since most bulls are Virgin bulls at sale time. Them epd's are really just a speculation that he might inherit these traits from his parents. Much like you would think Brad Pitt and Jennifer Aniston would have pretty babies but in reality they could have a dog ugly one just as likely.
Seems like there is more Value in A.I. Bulls epd's due to hundreds or thousands of data from difference sources. But a local Bull seller could really fudge his numbers on a bull sold to a commercial guy.
I am sure smarter men can use them way better than I ever will be able to. But I look at it like this, a few things affect the price come sale time. One is weight of the calves, and then eye appeal. I always figured buyers are looking for an attractive animal that has a good phenotype.
Till I understand epd's more and trust them better I will base most of my purchase on phenotype with an occasional glance at BW and WW.
Caustic Burno
Well-known member
aplusmnt":3srhfvvb said:
Yes I can as just in reverse there has been about every breed you can think of on this place. There are two Braxton Giant Hereford breeders in this county. Since switching to this line five years ago for herd bulls I have pulled one calf . Used to pull calves regular that had all the right numbers on the bull side.
My calfs might get here small and not have as good of weaning weight as you but I am hauling them to the salebarn, check speaks for itself.
