Don’t tell people what you know, KEEP THEM POOR!

[NEFarmwife]

How well does spending 200k+ on new equipment to replace 4 year old equipment, pencil out?

I just asked my 15 year old baler and my pre-historic swather and they both laughed.

Nothing wrong with that. In fact nothing wrong with putting hay up like this if it works for you.

https://youtu.be/XGzUL9tRelc

You assume you're making 100% profit on your bales in your 30k figure. Do you not own the land, lease the land, etc...? Don't put any inputs in it to raise good hay? No fuel or labor?

We put up a lot of hay every year and I can't say that high priced equipment is going to give us "better" hay. Have to spend money to make money but going big isn't always more profitable.

Your folks are going to lose everything they've built because of your grand ideas.

 

[CattleMan1920]

How kind of you! If I had hay to sell I would price it as high as it would sell for, if that was $125 a roll, so be it. I definitely would not worry that others didn't plan properly. That's not my concern.

Now how is that good customer relations Mr. Branded? Don't you realize people have long memories?

I sure do, that's why most of my bulls have sold for less than what they were probably worth considering how they were developed.

To date nobody has come back claiming that they got a bum deal. In fact they were grinning as they pulled away with their new bull, knowing they got a fair deal. Therefore nobody is getting stepped on at Branded.

It's hard if not impossible to gouge people in the seed stock business. There are way too many substitutes to choose from around the state. That's not the case with hay. There a finite supply and sellers know that.

 

[haase]

This is like farmville.

 

[CattleMan1920]

I just asked my 15 year old baler and my pre-historic swather and they both laughed.

Your folks are going to lose everything they've built because of your grand ideas.

You can also lose everything by playing it safe and hunkering down. It's happened a lot around here. It's more of a slow death than anything.

You speak as if you know all the details about our operation? If I were commercial, and selling 10 steers a year, a few heifers, and crips, then yes it may be a bad idea to expand. That's not what is going on here on our operation.

You and Jehoshaphat stick to that 50 number and what you read about us online. I like it that way. Also keep telling yourself that a registered President or Elation daughter is worth $1k. When you know that is not the case

Truth is, neither one of you have a clue what I have hitting the ground in 2019, nor do you know what's coming in the years ahead. It's just a wild azz guess at best. Just like I don't have any idea of what you have in store.

What would you estimate 35 registered SAV Raindance daughters would be worth? Would they be the same price as 35 mixed breed heifers? If so, why?

There's a lot you aren't aware of. Which is a good thing.

 

[CattleMan1920]

This is like farmville.

It got boring around here without Ron so I thought I would post something to make everyone angry at me, I think that is when most are the happiest, especially NEFarmWife who sees me as a personal punching bag of sorts.

If I were breeding Longhorn/Charolais crosses she would love me.

 

[bball]

Man ! that video really lit a fire under your butt didn't it... :lol2:

Nope! I watch and read stuff like that every day. I just happened to like this particular video and shared it.

I bought some hay last spring, had it wrapped, and now I'm cutting open those tubes. I paid $30 a roll for it, The hay I'm feeding is a far cry from the $100 low quality hay in circulation right now. I'm just wanting to make sure I'm never the person that is cornered with starving cattle and forced to buy $100 hay because mine ran out in early January. Never want to be that guy! No matter how much of a learning experience it may be.

In the current agricultural environment, if a man is buying $100 rolls of hay to feed to cows that are barely worth $800, he is not very savy with his money/resources. It does not take purchasing very many rolls, at that price,before you are upside down...atleast around these parts. :dunce:

 

[littletom]

Quick question for you Mr Branded, how would you need 1200 rolls of hay to feed 50 mama cows and calves. I run about 70 mama's and use 300 ish a year. Mine stay just as fat as yours. My 40 x 80 barn holds em all with ease. 16' lean to's on 3 sides holds all the rest of the equipment.

50 mommas don't need 1200 rolls. I will be over 100 head in the next 12-16 months, and even more than that by 2021. I'm planning ahead, and I'm also looking to sell any excess hay. The people crying the blues this winter failed to be prepared, no other excuse.

The guys in my area that baled as much hay as they could are not having money issues right now, instead they are selling hay at $100 roll. They are pis..sing people off, but getting paid. Capitalism at it's finest. The law of supply and demand playing itself out.

300 rolls, at $100 a roll, which would be easy to obtain right now for a bale, is $30k. That pays for a baler pretty darn fast, and you get high quality, non molded hay for yourself. We have a lot of Amish farmers here and they will pay $100 a roll all day long.

Do you have any idea how much your going to have in a roll of hay, with the equipment your talking about? That tractor and roller is going to be in excess of 150K and the 12 dollar a bale paper wrap your talking about. You will have to roll a crap load of hay to come out at all selling it for a 100 a roll every year. Ground cost 3-5000 a acre, 50 for fert. 50 to reseed grass. You can lease it for 150 plus for crop ground so you have to charge yourself that minimum.
I'm feeding 85 momma cows some bulls and kept weaned calves till Jan. Will hit 200 rolls for this winter tomorrow. 1200 should last guys my size a few years. Net wrap yea fast and slick when rolling. When feeding FTS that crap 50-11 times over. I perfer twine in a barn. We spent 22k on a barn to hold 300 rolls. To each there own. I farm full time. You must have a sharp pencil. I agree you can't short cut everything and go cheapest. But everything needs to show maximum return. And a hay barn does. For cow farming that m on the side of the tractor will return better than that r. While still having that pretty green paint!

 

[littletom]

I also farm on last years profit not next years. But hey to honest I'm just one of those dead beat tobacco farmers, with commercial cows. That buys those purebred Angus, and Hereford bulls, from someone else that don't cost 10k.

 

[sim.-ang.king]

You are missing the tax benefits. The only R series tractors that I see selling around here are to folks that use them as a major deduction against income.

Spending dollars to save pennies, is the way CB put it, I believe.
You'd be better off investing in something that's cheaper in the short go, and pays better in the long run.

 

[CattleMan1920]

You are missing the tax benefits. The only R series tractors that I see selling around here are to folks that use them as a major deduction against income.

Spending dollars to save pennies, is the way CB put it, I believe.
You'd be better off investing in something that's cheaper in the short go, and pays better in the long run.

Glad I'm not a John Deere salesman. You guys lost it just on a suggestion of what I'm thinking about. I've got piker hay equipment right now, nothing wrong with looking at options.

 

[Son of Butch]

Takes all types. Some want to be the richest man in the cemetery, others have different goals.

 

[CattleMan1920]

I also farm on last years profit not next years. But hey to honest I'm just one of those dead beat tobacco farmers, with commercial cows. That buys those purebred Angus, and Hereford bulls, from someone else that don't cost 10k.

I prefer not to look backwards. Resting on your past accomplishments is a recipe for future failure.

We raised a lot of tobacco, still have two big tobacco barns, that are pretty useless to me, for cattle that is.

Enough of the self loathing, if you have a commercial herd then step forward and say "my commercial herd kicks azz, and here's why" or "I'm growing where I might need 10-12 bulls next year". This little guy, tiny violin playing is getting old. Lots of people in my county are stuck on talking about the good ole days in tobacco. My family raised lots of tobacco, I worked in tobacco, and that sh.t sucked compared to raising cattle.

Tell me where your going, not where you've been, that's far more interesting.

I've done some pretty amazing things in my life, Ron knows about it, been to lots of places, and met lots of interesting people. But does is mean jack squat now? Nope! Doesn't mean sh.t. Does my future calf crop mean something? Absolutely! The past is old news. The here and now, and the future is all that matters.

 

[sim.-ang.king]

You are missing the tax benefits. The only R series tractors that I see selling around here are to folks that use them as a major deduction against income.

Spending dollars to save pennies, is the way CB put it, I believe.
You'd be better off investing in something that's cheaper in the short go, and pays better in the long run.

Glad I'm not a John Deere salesman. You guys lost it just on a suggestion of what I'm thinking about. I've got piker hay equipment right now, nothing wrong with looking at options.

You're the one that wanted to have this discussion on an open internet forum. Seems if you didn't want people to give their opinion you would of went else where. :tiphat:

 

[CattleMan1920]

Spending dollars to save pennies, is the way CB put it, I believe.
You'd be better off investing in something that's cheaper in the short go, and pays better in the long run.

Glad I'm not a John Deere salesman. You guys lost it just on a suggestion of what I'm thinking about. I've got piker hay equipment right now, nothing wrong with looking at options.

You're the one that wanted to have this discussion on an open internet forum. Seems if you didn't want people to give their opinion you would of went else where. :tiphat:

I posted a video that I thought was interesting. It took no time flat to get personal. Not a surprise.

My sole business is not just raising hay. We have a cattle business as you know.

Like I said before, I'm thinking about new equipment, I haven't bought it. Somehow that went way off track and now my business is doomed according to NEFarmWife, oh, I look down on ALL other producers in the state, which is absolutely not the case.

Why should anyone even bother going to the Farm Machine show in Louisville if all that fancy equipment is going to do is cause you to go belly up? Why even have the show? We would all be facing a depression if equipment and goods weren't sold. If all we did was save every dime, this economy would be in a scary place.

I want opinions, they make things interesting, personal attacks are what they are, people love to see them. If you notice, I don't directly attack anyone's business. I speak my mind, I disagree with some things I read on here, but I don't go dig on the web and then see how I can attack someone's operation, that's petty.

 

[Sostra]

I believe in what Jim Gerrish wrote "The more iron and oil you put between the sun and a cow's mouth, the less profitable you will be."
I buy all my hay. IMO if you can find a reliable supplier providing good quality hay, it has much more pros than cons to go for it. If the supplier is specialized in forage production, he can invest in all new machinery with high productivity, will use it as many hours per season as possible, produce big volume of rolls and his unit cost of production will be lower. Such people are also knowledgeable about how to quickly fix smaller issues. And they use winter time to have their machinery ready for the new season - preventative maintenance.
One other aspect is that when buying hay you normally feed the cattle more than once. First feeding is with the hay itself, but then it comes out as a manure on the pastures and improves them.

 

[sstterry]

I think that some of the numbers here are a little off. I believe "with quality indoor storage", your hay losses are going to be closer to 5% than 10%. I have very little waste and no rot with my hay. But take that fact out of the equation. No one is taking into consideration that at the end of the 10-20 years you are using as an example, that you will still have the building and the equipment will be virtually worthless. There is the argument to be made for asset accumulation.

With that said, everyone should do what they feel is best for their operation. Some do not want to go into debt for equipment for peace of mind's sake. Some, use this as a side business to just try to make a little extra and don't want the huge capital outlays. Some are very passionate and serious about their genetics and always want to be better. And some just raise cattle as a hobby.

Everyone should do what best fits their goals and capabilities.

 

[Lucky]

I've got a good friend that runs I'd say 75 cows as hobby. A couple years ago he started buying hay equipment and I told him he could buy hay way cheaper. He ended up with a couple $100,000 tractors and all new hay equipment. This past summer he bought a cab tractor to rake with!! I was ribbing him about pulling up to his hay field in his $75,000 dually to rake hay in his new $50,000 tractor and he just said "why make the money if you can't enjoy spending it". This is a man who came from nothing and spent who knows how many hours on an open top tractor as a young man. Is his hay business profitable? I'd say no, is it making him happy? I think 10 times more than seeing that money sitting in the bank. He's not super rich and still goes to work everyday. People have their own reasons for spending money.

Another local man spent I'd guess at least 250k on hay fields and irrigation equipment several years back. He was the talk of the town and everyone called him a fool. He told me he hoped for a 5 yr payback. Several years later he bought a self propelled hay cutter and put it a new pivot. I ask him if he thought the hay deal was a good investment and he said it paid off in full in 2.5 yrs. He told me last week he hoped to put in another pivot this summer and if he wasn't so attached to the cows he'd turn the ranch into a hay farm.

Some people dream big, some small, and some not at all I guess. You gotta look to the future in the cattle business for sure because nothing happens quick.

 

[Caustic Burno]

I think that some of the numbers here are a little off. I believe "with quality indoor storage", your hay losses are going to be closer to 5% than 10%. I have very little waste and no rot with my hay. But take that fact out of the equation. No one is taking into consideration that at the end of the 10-20 years you are using as an example, that you will still have the building and the equipment will be virtually worthless. There is the argument to be made for asset accumulation.

With that said, everyone should do what they feel is best for their operation. Some do not want to go into debt for equipment for peace of mind's sake. Some, use this as a side business to just try to make a little extra and don't want the huge capital outlays. Some are very passionate and serious about their genetics and always want to be better. And some just raise cattle as a hobby.

Everyone should do what best fits their goals and capabilities.

Assets have no value till sold until then they are a liability.

 

[sstterry]

[quote="Caustic Burno"
Assets have no value till sold until then they are a liability.

Tell that to the financial institutions that want to see my asset to liability ratio. (Which is not that great by the way )

 

[jltrent]

I am one of those that is scared to fail I guess. Also I have learned that newer is not always better, especially with the new EPA tractors as 100% sure they will eventually cost more to maintain. Farming profit is very slim and I can't see going into much debt when the outgoing is more than incoming for that business. On the hay end from my experience hay fed the same year baled left out in the big barn you will lose some, but I lose more hay from the feeding end the cattle poop in, just don't eat, gets rained on when just fed etc. If you want to save hay probably the bang for the buck would be build a feeding facility as I know you lose more there than the 5-6 months setting out until fed.