Bad week to sell

[Ojp6]

Futures have been falling all week, I've seen cash prices down 10-25 cents from last week. I don't know if it's gonna get better but it's gotten bad. Good set of 845 lb black heifers brought .97 at a sale I was at yesterday. 450 lb heifers were in the 1.20s for the most part, 5 weights 1.15-1.25. Some of the heavier 5 weight steers were in the 1.20s as well.

Hopefully it will come back a little next week. If it falls for another week we could see some most of the cattle regardless of weight under 1.20.

 

[Bigfoot]

I was going to sell a little load today, and decided to wait. Can't wait forever though.

 

[Cross-7]

My crystal ball tells me short term cattle on feed will be steady due to summer/seasonal demand.
Lighter cattle that'll finish later in the year will be cheap.
Word is we have a huge calf crop coming this fall.
Another crash like we saw last fall coming at the end of summer.
It La Niña hits as predicted we'll see the SW sell off, they won't try to feed through another one.
10 year cycle years ending in 6
Finding the bottom will depend mostly on drought, but we have imports now so that's the wild card.

But that's just what I've heard and they may not know anymore about it than I do

 

[J&D Cattle]

I'm certainly glad I sold last week. This week was a wreck. Several buyers were just sitting on their hands.

 

[skyhightree1]

I took my beating last week and this week I sold some both weeks.

 

[Nesikep]

All a bunch of BS in my mind... Has the supply really increased that much from a year ago where calves were $3.00+ a lb? I'm sure demand hasn't changed that much

 

[True Grit Farms]

It'll be a dollar a pound by fall for nice steers. The saving grace is fuel is still relatively cheap. Hopefully calves can hover around a $dollar a pound, and then start back up sometime before 2020. The economy, interest rates, fuel and disease can put a real dent on those that depend on cattle to pay the bills in the next few years.
Anyone who held back commercial heifers the last few years made a bad business decision. And the next few years are going to be the buyers market.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Well thank you Mr. Sunshine for that cheery update.

 

[Nesikep]

What about imports? They finally opened up imports from what I heard when prices were high... so have they shut them now now?

 

[Ol' 243]

I've been buying like a drunken sailor the last 2-3 weeks, way more than I had planned. I hope it pays off.

 

[js1234]

I've been buying like a drunken sailor the last 2-3 weeks, way more than I had planned. I hope it pays off.

Ditto. We have bought more holdover cattle to run on the dry in the last 2 weeks than we probably have in the last 5 years.

 

[True Grit Farms]

What about imports? They finally opened up imports from what I heard when prices were high... so have they shut them now now?

The high we were getting for our calves allowed the imported beef to be cost effective. I'm sure imported beef is down also. The trade deals that our government has made with other countries is a major factor. We need to be able to deal dollar for dollar with our competition, we as Americans pay a higher tariff and that's BS.
We need someone who knows how to run a business working for us in Washington.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Same cycle that has been going on for decades .
The glass half full guys are going to get rich then in a couple of years they turn into the glass half empty going to starve to death.
The ones that survive are the glass is turned over and has a dirt dabber nest in it.
Look to see improvement 2017 if the cycle holds true. Lot of those high priced calves are just now going on the rail.

 

[bball]

Same cycle that has been going on for decades .
The glass half full guys are going to get rich then in a couple of years they turn into the glass half empty going to starve to death.
The ones that survive are the glass is turned over and has a dirt dabber nest in it.
Look to see improvement 2017 if the cycle holds true. Lot of those high priced calves are just now going on the rail.

Thanks for this reaffirmation CB. I was just wondering last night if the cattle cycle still holds true (things like imports, globalization, alternate protein sources, etc, etc) so your input is much appreciated.

 

[Kell-inKY]

So if I'm going to sell, the sooner the better? We just decided to sell nearly all of our calves, so this makes perfect sense, my timing is impeccable.

 

[callmefence]

:clap: :clap: :clap:

 

[Bigfoot]

It is what it is. There down now, I'll go back to backgrounding. I can afford more when their cheap anyway, and the drop in price is not nearly as drastic.

Not looking for an argument, but I don't think the 10 year cycle holds true anymore. Been affected by drought, imports, and alternate choices for the consumer. You just gotta get in, and stay in. Strike while it's hot, and fan the flames while it's cold.

Edited to add:
Plus all any of feed is a byproduct any more. Hard to see what corn and soybeans are doing, and dodge that bullet.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I used to think that futures or LRP was the way to manage the down part of a cattle cycle. But, it seems like the traders have somewhat disconnected futures from the cash market. What do you think are effective risk management approaches for producers today?

 

[Bigfoot]

Lrp is the only friend I know of.

 

[Stocker Steve]

So if the traders go long on grain and drive the price up,
and the traders so short on beef and drive the price down,
then does a producer :

1) buy LRP before it gets worse ?
2) wish they bought LRP previously ?
3) buy a new pick up and go on a trip ?