Why Herefords are Vanishing

[HerefordSire]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this bull's picture posted under the "bull power" thread from May of this year in the Breeds Board? The reg# is off by a number but I think it was typo. So, now we can look at him and make some judgements instead of blowing more hot air about how we don't know what he looks like.

Have a link? Is his name Chester?

Sorry HerefordSire, I've been gone a few days. Yah his name's Chester. Here's the link:
http://www.cattletoday.com/forum/viewto ... =5&t=57207

I think he left off the first # from the reg. # (4) but the name's the same.

Thanks redcowrules33. That does look like him.

 

[HerefordSire]

:lol2: Why would you want to eliminate the show cattle, only to bring them back later? :lol2: Those show folks might not appreciate that too much either. :devil2:

To become as efficient as they can so the breed can survive with substantial numbers. The future doesn't look rosey for anyone holding Hereford genes if something is not done soon. Let's see what the Hereford breeders choose to do.

 

[RD-Sam]

If the show cattle are the problem, why would you let them back in the registry later?

 

[HerefordSire]

If the show cattle are the problem, why would you let them back in the registry later?

I don't think they are the problem. I don't think they are a solution either. The breeders probably need as much money as they can get their hands on. It cost allot of money to sponsor show cattle.

 

[HerefordSire]

Pan American Hereford registrations hit a low not seen since 1980. What is the cause and what is the solution?

(cont.)

One weekend, the boys went on a quadruple date with some very attactive young ladies their age. The girls all knew each other from the high school years and went to classes wiith the boys. Since the boys were all successful cattle breeders, they decided to go to a restaurant that served Certified Hereford Beef steaks. When they got to the restaurant, there was a line about a block long so they had to wait for about an hour before they were seated. After ordering, the boys started talking about the cattle business.

Luck said, "my cattle are the best looking! Look at my cattle pictures".

Duck said, "my cattle have the highest EPD numbers! Look at these rankings."

Buck said, "my linebred cattle have the best pedigrees! Look at this pedigree that traces 8 times to this great bull".

Chuck said, "my linebred cattle have the highest accuracies! Look at this good looking photo of a bull of a high accuracy pedigree that traces 3 times to this great bull".

The girls all giggled and were impressed with their boyfriends. The were proud they were a part of the success of legendary fourth generation Hereford breeders. Then the girls all went to the restroom to refreshen their makeup. While the girls were away, Buck and Chuck whispered to Luck and Duck, "can I borrow $20 to pay for the meal? I didn't know the prices were so high!" So Luck and Duck gave $20 each to Buck and Chuck to cover the cost of what they were short for dinner because Luck and Duck always had pocket change from their additional sales. Buck and Chuck quit sweating bullets and were relieved while color returned back to their faces..

(cont.)

Pan American Hereford registrations hit a low not seen since 1980. What is the cause and what is the solution?

(cont.)

Five more years passed and the boys were full grown men at 24 years old. They had been breeding Herefords for ten years now and were in the worst recession since the Great Depression. Muck and Yuck summoned Luck, Duck, Buck, and Chuck for their official five year breed meeting to discuss several important issues. The boys could see the seriousness on the face of their parents. Sales weren't robust like they used to be for the boys. Money was hard to come by because of the financial crisis. Since times were tough, Muck made the hard decision to sponsor a dispersal sale. The plan was for the boys to sell 75% of their animals.

The second portion of the plan was for the boys to work together as a team to breed 25% of the best stock they owned as a combined unit. In other words, they were being forced to work together as a team. But, the boys could not agree on a breeding philosophy as they were all experts in their chosen area. Since they were all the same age, there was no eldest son to make final decisions. Muck did not want to become involved in favoritism so he created four rules based upon all the expertise to select and then breed by:

(1) Buck will select the pedigrees from all stock for a linebreed program.

(2) Chuck will filter Buck's selections based upon appearance, EPD accuracies, and pedigree lines.

(3) Duck will filter Chuck's selections based upon future expectation of EPD numbers.

(4) Luck will filter Duck's selections based upon visual appearance and functionality.

After the sale took place, the boys began breeding the best animals accumulated over ten years. The worked together like a well oiled machine and follow the four golden rules.

(cont.)

 

[RD-Sam]

Pan American Hereford registrations hit a low not seen since 1980. What is the cause and what is the solution?

(cont.)

One weekend, the boys went on a quadruple date with some very attactive young ladies their age. The girls all knew each other from the high school years and went to classes wiith the boys. Since the boys were all successful cattle breeders, they decided to go to a restaurant that served Certified Hereford Beef steaks. When they got to the restaurant, there was a line about a block long so they had to wait for about an hour before they were seated. After ordering, the boys started talking about the cattle business.

Luck said, "my cattle are the best looking! Look at my cattle pictures".

Duck said, "my cattle have the highest EPD numbers! Look at these rankings."

Buck said, "my linebred cattle have the best pedigrees! Look at this pedigree that traces 8 times to this great bull".

Chuck said, "my linebred cattle have the highest accuracies! Look at this good looking photo of a bull of a high accuracy pedigree that traces 3 times to this great bull".

The girls all giggled and were impressed with their boyfriends. The were proud they were a part of the success of legendary fourth generation Hereford breeders. Then the girls all went to the restroom to refreshen their makeup. While the girls were away, Buck and Chuck whispered to Luck and Duck, "can I borrow $20 to pay for the meal? I didn't know the prices were so high!" So Luck and Duck gave $20 each to Buck and Chuck to cover the cost of what they were short for dinner because Luck and Duck always had pocket change from their additional sales. Buck and Chuck quit sweating bullets and were relieved while color returned back to their faces..

(cont.)

Pan American Hereford registrations hit a low not seen since 1980. What is the cause and what is the solution?

(cont.)

Five more years passed and the boys were full grown men at 24 years old. They had been breeding Herefords for ten years now and were in the worst recession since the Great Depression. Muck and Yuck summoned Luck, Duck, Buck, and Chuck for their official five year breed meeting to discuss several important issues. The boys could see the seriousness on the face of their parents. Sales weren't robust like they used to be for the boys. Money was hard to come by because of the financial crisis. Since times were tough, Muck made the hard decision to sponsor a dispersal sale. The plan was for the boys to sell 75% of their animals.

The second portion of the plan was for the boys to work together as a team to breed 25% of the best stock they owned as a combined unit. In other words, they were being forced to work together as a team. But, the boys could not agree on a breeding philosophy as they were all experts in their chosen area. Since they were all the same age, there was no eldest son to make final decisions. Muck did not want to become involved in favoritism so he created four rules based upon all the expertise to select and then breed by:

(1) Buck will select the pedigrees from all stock for a linebreed program.

(2) Chuck will filter Buck's selections based upon appearance, EPD accuracies, and pedigree lines.

(3) Duck will filter Chuck's selections based upon future expectation of EPD numbers.

(4) Luck will filter Duck's selections based upon visual appearance and functionality.

After the sale took place, the boys began breeding the best animals accumulated over ten years. The worked together like a well oiled machine and follow the four golden rules.

(cont.)

Didn't Remital just do a dispersal and go their seperate ways? :lol2:

Loss of Hereford registrations could be summed up by two major factors, the cost of breeding Herefords, and the fact that they are not black.

 

[SRBeef]

...Just curious, what was his [T021] starting $BMI profit index and what is the current $BMI profit index?

On the original certificate from June 2008, T21's BMI was +$24. Spring and Fall 2009 are both at +$26. I don't know what it was in Fall 2008.

Jim

 

[DOC HARRIS]

It seems obvious that the previous 'intellectual discussions' regarding the BU$INE$$ of raising profitable beef cattle which adorned these pages in the past have taken the road of least resistance, and common sense and reason has been abandoned, and childish nonsense and ridiculous juvinile drivel has replaced any reason to continue to review these pages.

What a shame! At one time, Beginners AND Experienced Breeders alike could bank on reading very well considered helpful information regarding their chosen occupation. But if a few of the posts on this particular thread is any example, that possibility is long past! Perhaps the current political environment is beginning to affect the ability of adults to think logically, and they are lurching into their pre-school years of 'finger painting and chewing on their "blankies"! :dunce:

Too bad! :cry2:

DOC HARRIS

 

[RD-Sam]

:lol2: So Doc, can "Profit" be calculated from EPD's? :cowboy:

 

[cmf1]

HS,
This thread is a hoot!
The concept of picking breeding stock for profit because of paper value alone has got to be ludicrous.
All said and done, you are raising cattle. Beef.
No matter what intangible asset you attach to it, it is in the end a very tangible thing. Beef.
A royal pedigree, EPDs off the charts, a commendation from the Secretary Of The Navy. It's Beef.
The best bull -insert breed- that mathematics can produce on paper with the highest/lowest/bestest numbers ever printed, that looks like a greyhound will have a severely limited market at best. Excepting perhaps a collector of odd and curious things. Or a gambler that believes that quality can skip a generation but somehow be transferred latent.
At a deal.
Could be. I'm geussin' the odds are agin' ya.

As to the title of this thread, "Why Herefords are Vanishing", My fringe experience tells me that they already vanished.
And are now resurgent.
My uncle raised Herefords when I was very young. While I was not paying ultra close attention, I can tell you they were a different animal than recent history records.
Somewhere along the line the genetics that were Herefords were traded in for what Hereford genetics were never supposed to be. Thank goodness there were breeders who did not bite at the apple and maintained breed traits that were truer to the breed. And sought to improve genetic traits, not import them.
Now they are resurgent.

As to registrations slipping. What else could possibly happen to any other breed under today's marketing mischief.
"If ain't black it ain't worth eatin' ".
AAA has done wonders through incredible marketing to advance the concept.
And I say fantastic!
You build that kind of market, you better back it up with the inventory. And they have. And people are talking about "good tasting beef" rather than "red meat will kill you". Bless the AAA.
At the same time, Do you believe that only black hides are good enough to eat?
I doubt it.
But AAA is the leader now.
And the marketing will run it's course, and the next marketing melee will turn a different direction, and the breeders will pick up the pieces, and the Angus will resurrect it self as well.

All of my information is purely anecdotal and quite possibly erroneous.

 

[HerefordSire]

Pan American Hereford registrations hit a low not seen since 1980. What is the cause and what is the solution?

(cont.)

Now Muck had a twin brother named Tuck. Tuck had triplett boys named Mark, Clark, and Shark and were running the family's beef processing facility. Mark procured the cattle, Clark processed the beef, and Shark marketed the packaged beef.

Muck and Tuck were called for a meeting by their Canadian father Canuck to discuss business. Their father was a wise old geezer and knew the boys were having a tough time of things so he listened to the boys for an hour and became silent for about five minutes.

All of the sudden, Canuck broke his silence:

"Boys, we are related to both Gudgell and Simpson the pioneers of Herefords in America. There is pride in our family carrying on the tradition. It is in our blood. We owed it to our ancestors to make Herefords the best meat Pan America has ever eaten. From this day forward, Tuck will breed Herefords and Muck will process beef. We will work as a team."

Now Muck didn't know much about processing beef and Tuck didn't know much about breeding Herefords. So they jumped on a plane to the association's headquarters to begin asking questions.

(cont.)

 

[HerefordSire]

Didn't Remital just do a dispersal and go their seperate ways? :lol2:

Loss of Hereford registrations could be summed up by two major factors, the cost of breeding Herefords, and the fact that they are not black.

Yes they had a dispersal sale. I don't have any other factual information.

There could be many reasons why the public chose black. The voting results are in. It appears to me that white face cattle are a valid market target because of heterosis and the populations of purebred white faced cattle are adjusting to market conditions. Purebred white faced bulls are one way to capture heterosis but the bulls must come from the purebred white faced cows. The purebred white faced cows appear to be coming down in registered numbers but there may be unregistered herds unaccounted for in the quantities I am studying. Maybe the USDA has unregistered and registered numbers? Regardless, basing decisions on incomplete data could be dangerous and could result in negative consequences.

 

[HerefordSire]

...Just curious, what was his [T021] starting $BMI profit index and what is the current $BMI profit index?

On the original certificate from June 2008, T21's BMI was +$24. Spring and Fall 2009 are both at +$26. I don't know what it was in Fall 2008.

Jim

Thanks Jim. Do you have any beef processing data with a registered Hereford bull that you cross bred and was white faced?

 

[SRBeef]

...Just curious, what was his [T021] starting $BMI profit index and what is the current $BMI profit index?

On the original certificate from June 2008, T21's BMI was +$24. Spring and Fall 2009 are both at +$26. I don't know what it was in Fall 2008.

Jim

Thanks Jim. Do you have any beef processing data with a registered Hereford bull that you cross bred and was white faced?

I have some detailed processing data but none yet with T21 or any other registered Hereford bull. They've either been rent a bull Herefords on a BWF or a couple with a friend's Woodhill Angus sire on a Hereford cow.

 

[HerefordSire]

HS,
This thread is a hoot!
The concept of picking breeding stock for profit because of paper value alone has got to be ludicrous.
All said and done, you are raising cattle. Beef.
No matter what intangible asset you attach to it, it is in the end a very tangible thing. Beef.
A royal pedigree, EPDs off the charts, a commendation from the Secretary Of The Navy. It's Beef.
The best bull -insert breed- that mathematics can produce on paper with the highest/lowest/bestest numbers ever printed, that looks like a greyhound will have a severely limited market at best. Excepting perhaps a collector of odd and curious things. Or a gambler that believes that quality can skip a generation but somehow be transferred latent.
At a deal.
Could be. I'm geussin' the odds are agin' ya.

As to the title of this thread, "Why Herefords are Vanishing", My fringe experience tells me that they already vanished.
And are now resurgent.
My uncle raised Herefords when I was very young. While I was not paying ultra close attention, I can tell you they were a different animal than recent history records.
Somewhere along the line the genetics that were Herefords were traded in for what Hereford genetics were never supposed to be. Thank goodness there were breeders who did not bite at the apple and maintained breed traits that were truer to the breed. And sought to improve genetic traits, not import them.
Now they are resurgent.

As to registrations slipping. What else could possibly happen to any other breed under today's marketing mischief.
"If ain't black it ain't worth eatin' ".
AAA has done wonders through incredible marketing to advance the concept.
And I say fantastic!
You build that kind of market, you better back it up with the inventory. And they have. And people are talking about "good tasting beef" rather than "red meat will kill you". Bless the AAA.
At the same time, Do you believe that only black hides are good enough to eat?
I doubt it.
But AAA is the leader now.
And the marketing will run it's course, and the next marketing melee will turn a different direction, and the breeders will pick up the pieces, and the Angus will resurrect it self as well.

All of my information is purely anecdotal and quite possibly erroneous.

cmf1...glad you are hooting like an owl. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Who knows what the answers are? I sure as heck don't! I will give you an example how information to base decisions on is very difficult in this business. How many head of Angus and Hereford cattle are in the USA? Just those two numbers may take you awhile. If we don't know how many animals of each are out there, how is a Hereford breeder supposed to invest money wisely?

 

[smnherf]

Pan American Hereford registrations hit a low not seen since 1980. What is the cause and what is the solution

How do you know that the cows that have been lost are cows whos genes wont contribute the to the commercial industry? Maybe this is a good thing and that culling these problem cows is actually good for the Hereford breed in the long term?

 

[HerefordSire]

It seems obvious that the previous 'intellectual discussions' regarding the BU$INE$$ of raising profitable beef cattle which adorned these pages in the past have taken the road of least resistance, and common sense and reason has been abandoned, and childish nonsense and ridiculous juvinile drivel has replaced any reason to continue to review these pages.

What a shame! At one time, Beginners AND Experienced Breeders alike could bank on reading very well considered helpful information regarding their chosen occupation. But if a few of the posts on this particular thread is any example, that possibility is long past! Perhaps the current political environment is beginning to affect the ability of adults to think logically, and they are lurching into their pre-school years of 'finger painting and chewing on their "blankies"! :dunce:

Too bad! :cry2:

DOC HARRIS

Hi Doc! Hope your health is doing better.

I am glad you replied but you interupted me thumb sucking. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Have anything positive to contribute to intelectual breeding in the worst recession since the Great Depression?

 

[HerefordSire]

Pan American Hereford registrations hit a low not seen since 1980. What is the cause and what is the solution

How do you know that the cows that have been lost are cows whos genes wont contribute the to the commercial industry? Maybe this is a good thing and that culling these problem cows is actually good for the Hereford breed in the long term?

Hi Brian...I was thinking along the same lines. I figure that the overall economic quality of Herefords has drasticly risen in recent years. Fundamentals are now the primary focus. Fertility, longevity, carcass, etc. are again our primary focus. Lower numbers may not be such a bad thing.

How many Herefords are alive that are not registered?

 

[smnherf]

Have anything positive to contribute to intelectual breeding in the worst recession since the Great Depression?

Dont' worry about todays economic times. The offspring that you are producing today will be the offspring that will be in production during the rebound that usually comes after every downturn.

Brian

 

[Glenvale]

A lot of this thread appears largely insensible… so at the risk of contributing to it or further encouraging it, here are some of my humble thoughts on selection indices.

If profitability is a function of environment and market, for any given trait there should be something like a bell curve with an optimum expression for profitability in the middle. Although I'm certainly no economist, my understanding is selection indices don't take into account the law of diminishing returns because they seek to maximise traits with a direct linear relationship. In the real world, further increasing a particular trait beyond its environmental optimum will actually decrease profitability. Whereas with ordinary EBV's, the breeder, if they're smart enough, can use them to adjust trait expression up or down for individual traits to match the environment. Indices don't and in simplifying selection provide a very blunt tool that negates a part of why EBV's can be useful… and that's even before going into the accuracy issues or whether the economic weightings within them are actually correct or relevant to the particular producer. One market index for every environment based on direct linear relationships between profit and trait expression- I don't think so.

I do however think EBV's are a valuable instrument in the hands of a breeder who knows how to use them appropriately with the right emphasis within selection decisions, also considering structure/fertility/conformation/type/pedigree etc. Indices have their place too- I just think they're probably much more useful/less dangerous to the breeder who already knows what they are doing.

I guess I could be all wrong though.

Here's a link to an explanation of how the Australian Hereford indices are weighted. I don't know how the North American EPD's are weighted, but the idea will be the same. http://breedplan.une.edu.au/tips/Interp ... ndexes.pdf