Where are you? - Market Cycle of Emotions

[TennesseeTuxedo]

I guess I am a little slow - I'm still at #4. Euphoria. Can't believe the run we had and what I was able to accomplish while we had it.

I like your attitude Aaron.

 

[kenny thomas]

I haven't sold but 5 calves this fall. All the rest of them are getting weaned to sell later this year. Also buying 250-350lb thin rough calves to keep until spring. As Jed stated just cutting the nuts off makes me money.

 

[Sd1030]

Kt i have a question for ya, when you but bull calves like that and castrate do they get worked as soon as they come off the trailer or do you give them some time to adjust before castration?

 

[Dave]

I just I am shrugging my shoulders in reality. I still have 52 bred heifers to sell. I have give up on the idea that they will make me any money. It is just how much will I lose this year. The other side of it is that I made enough the last four years that I could literally give these girls away and still be in the black for the four years.

 

[RanchMan90]

You'll only lose money if you sell them. Can you calve those babies out to sell spring pairs?

 

[WalnutCrest]

You'll only lose money if you sell them. Can you calve those babies out to sell spring pairs?

Coming from a guy who's provided for his family by actively engaging with markets of all types for a long time, this mindset isn't realistic. You lose money when the price of what you own goes down. If you doubt me, just ask your banker if you can still borrow on the equity you had when prices are higher.

Embrace the losses --- it's freeing! I promise. It allows one to be more productive and solution oriented rather than fearful or angry. Know the truth and the truth will set you free.

This isn't a call to making short-sighted decisions and actually selling something you may not need to sell ... but to really understand what a full / partial liquidation means to you and your neighbors.

Panic will set in with some people at some times, and that is when you can (if you're really embracing your reality) to make a wonderful strategic decision for you and your cattle business.

So, yes, you've already lost money. And that's not the end of the world.

 

[RanchMan90]

IF be the operative word in my quote. I pick up what you're laying down and don't disagree. Isn't rule #1 never lose money? A break even isnt an end all, money could be made on the buying price not selling price today.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I have been waiting a while for a market rally. The market is up for 3 straight days so now I am getting anxious about hooking up the trailer.

 

[RanchMan90]

I have been waiting a while for a market rally. The market is up for 3 straight days so now I am getting anxious about hooking up the trailer.[/quote I've got some 650 lb char bulls sitting in the city today to sell, hopefully I don't lose my shirt. I should've castrated them but didn't see it being worth the time to heal when I can replace them this week.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I should've castrated them but didn't see it being worth the time to heal when I can replace them this week.

How long do you have to wait for the swelling to go down in your market to avoid a discount?

 

[RanchMan90]

30-45 days. That duration seemed to be a wash with $1 a day feed in them, and castration sure to slow gains for a few days. I haven't owned them that long.

 

[WalnutCrest]

IF be the operative word in my quote. I pick up what you're laying down and don't disagree. Isn't rule #1 never lose money? A break even isnt an end all, money could be made on the buying price not selling price today.

That's my point. You've already lost the money, you just haven't REALIZED the loss yet. There is a difference and it's not immaterial.

Risk management is all about knowing where you really are ... and right now, in our cattle, many / most of us are in a negative equity situation.

 

[Dave]

You'll only lose money if you sell them. Can you calve those babies out to sell spring pairs?

Someone else will be calving them out. I am on the Washington coast. It will rain here almost everyday between now and April. One of the reasons I went to this bred heifer deal was to get out of calving here in the mud. I can sell at a loss if that is what happens. But buy back the next set at about $500 a head less then these cost me to buy. If I keep these I won't have room for the next set. With the loss of a few calves and the cost of feed, I seriously doubt it would be worth while to hold on to them.
The first loss is generally the lowest loss. Get rid of them and grab a new hold.

 

[RanchMan90]

I can relate. My calves weighed 645, so only shrunk 5 lbs there and brought .91. Should've castrated, if anyone is on the fence about it.

 

[jedstivers]

Can't beat that. Is that on #1 steers in Arkansas?

No, 1.5-2 Mississippi calves.
Most have nuts so I'll have to upgrade them.
Will usually upgrade 1/2 a point.

We've gotten some from Mississippi from prairie livestock that bought them. Could you explain buying puts on a load? I'm sure that would help out a lot here

I have a acct set up through a broker, you have to but 50,000lbs contracts.
I try to buy for 1,000 commission and all. Try to protect my investment and feed cost. I don't try to protect my potential profit. That cost to much. It's like a ins policy. You really don't want to use it but it's nice if its there.

 

[jedstivers]

Kt i have a question for ya, when you but bull calves like that and castrate do they get worked as soon as they come off the trailer or do you give them some time to adjust before castration?

Not Kenny but I give the first round of shots, one of which has tetanus and two weeks later the other round and cut nuts.

 

[Sd1030]

Thanks jed i was kinda thinking thats prolly what was done but wasnt sure.

 

[RanchMan90]

No, 1.5-2 Mississippi calves.
Most have nuts so I'll have to upgrade them.
Will usually upgrade 1/2 a point.

We've gotten some from Mississippi from prairie livestock that bought them. Could you explain buying puts on a load? I'm sure that would help out a lot here

I have a acct set up through a broker, you have to but 50,000lbs contracts.
I try to buy for 1,000 commission and all. Try to protect my investment and feed cost. I don't try to protect my potential profit. That cost to much. It's like a ins policy. You really don't want to use it but it's nice if its there.

Seems reasonable, $16 a head to not lose money.

 

[1982vett]

I have been waiting a while for a market rally. The market is up for 3 straight days so now I am getting anxious about hooking up the trailer.

I heard from a reputable source that fewer numbers are going on feed and carcus weights are comming down. A step in the direction of reducing oversupply.

 

[Bigfoot]

I have never experienced the later stages of your scenario, until recently. My place was built after hours so to speak. I always had retirement in mind, as the goal. Certainly not as a real source of income, I just always saw myself out enjoying my place, and my cows during those years. I'm starting to think, that 25 cows would be more enjoyable, than 150. There's no money in cows and calves at the moment. Zero times 25 is still zero, and zero times 150 is still zero.