Where are you? - Market Cycle of Emotions

[Son of Butch]

The wheel of 10 human emotions during all market cycles

A. (going well)
1. Optimism
2. Excitement
3. Thrill
4. Euphoria

B. (things will get better)
5. Anxiety
6. Fear

C. (the sky is falling)
7. Desperation
8. Panic

D. (can't let this happen again)
9. Hopelessness/Capitulation
10 Depression

And Repeat the next same 10 emotions with the next market cycle in the same order all over again.
History has shown buying into a market at 9 Hopelessness returns the largest profits.

Where are you emotionally regarding the current cattle market cycle?

 

[Craig Miller]

Guess I better start buying then

 

[Margonme]

Probably not applicable to me. My emotions are less impacted by the market than other factors.

Emotionally, I feel over-occupied sometimes, harried might be a word that describes that.

I feel regretful at times that I don't have the opportunity to pursue other activities. Animal husbandry is very demanding, as is caring for dogs, cats, chickens, etc.

Raising cattle as a sole source of income or even a major part of an income would be an anxious pursuit. There has to be one-million better ways to earn a living.

 

[Caustic Burno]

I am buying cows shopping for a new bull right now.

 

[WalnutCrest]

We are trying to buy a farm right now. So until that's a done deal and we know how much land we have and how much money we have to work with, any serious shopping will have to wait.

In hopes of being able to do something, I am talking to a long time breeder about buying a few of their best cows. I'm also considering getting a handful of recips for some more embryo work.

 

[jedstivers]

My deal is 5wt calves so I have to buy but I'm sure liking buying double the amount of calves for the same money.
Hate it for the cow calf guys though.
I have a small cow herd so they and their calves are worth less too.
If I wanted more mamas though I'd be loading up now.

 

[Cross-7]

Just digesting what you mean out load

Say a calf at 500# at 1.25 = 625
Sell at 750 at 1.15 = 862
237 gross and .94 per pound of gain

2014
500# at 2.35 = 1175
750# at 2.05 = 1537
362 gross and 1.45 per pound of gain

Buy two today for the price of one in 2014
.94 per pound of gain x 2 calves today opposed to one calf at 1.45 per pound of gain in 2014

All things being equal and talking ROI on X many dollars invested

 

[RanchMan90]

Just digesting what you mean out load

Say a calf at 500# at 1.25 = 625
Sell at 750 at 1.15 = 862
237 gross and .94 per pound of gain

2014
500# at 2.35 = 1175
750# at 2.05 = 1537
362 gross and 1.45 per pound of gain

Buy two today for the price of one in 2014
.94 per pound of gain x 2 calves today opposed to one calf at 1.45 per pound of gain in 2014

All things being equal and talking ROI on X many dollars invested

. Good point. I bought some 650 lb cutting bulls yesterday @ $1. Should be able to add some value to them

 

[Nesikep]

You missed one.. Realism.. between B and C... Things will get better, but it might take a while

 

[jedstivers]

I just paid .98 total, buyers Commision, freight and cost of calves for average 476lbs calves.
I haven't worked out my cost of feed yet or my roi but feed is real cheap and 8wts are bringing 1.20 in the city.
I'll buy puts in 50,000lbs contracts to protect the downside.
As harvest slows down I'll start running exact numbers but I can tell at a glance that works.

 

[1982vett]

You missed one.. Realism.. between B and C... Things will get better, but it might take a while

Probably more accurate for me too. However, being retired from a paycheck and to young to draw from retirement accounts, I'm forced to feed on the savings account more than planned. About half my herd is over 8 years old. It would be nice to get aggressive while I have an abundance of grass.

 

[Nesikep]

I'm just going to tighten my belt, keep production going steady at close to capacity... Downsizing now only cuts future income doubly, growing is alright if you have the room to do it... I'll cull as needed but don't plan on any big changes

 

[RanchMan90]

I just paid .98 total, buyers Commision, freight and cost of calves for average 476lbs calves.
I haven't worked out my cost of feed yet or my roi but feed is real cheap and 8wts are bringing 1.20 in the city.
I'll buy puts in 50,000lbs contracts to protect the downside.
As harvest slows down I'll start running exact numbers but I can tell at a glance that works.

Can't beat that. Is that on #1 steers in Arkansas?

 

[jedstivers]

I just paid .98 total, buyers Commision, freight and cost of calves for average 476lbs calves.
I haven't worked out my cost of feed yet or my roi but feed is real cheap and 8wts are bringing 1.20 in the city.
I'll buy puts in 50,000lbs contracts to protect the downside.
As harvest slows down I'll start running exact numbers but I can tell at a glance that works.

Can't beat that. Is that on #1 steers in Arkansas?

No, 1.5-2 Mississippi calves.
Most have nuts so I'll have to upgrade them.
Will usually upgrade 1/2 a point.

 

[angus9259]

Reminds me of the warren buffet saying re the stock market.... be greedy when everyone is afraid and be afraid when everyone is being greedy.

Me personally? I'm hunkering down for a while. I think things are going to get worse. I'm not buying yet. I'm going to sell what I can in the spring (I fall calve) looking for a final uptick when people get cattle fever around here then I might look at buying in the fall of 2017.

 

[Son of Butch]

You missed one.. Realism.. between B and C... Things will get better, but it might take a while

You're right. Instead of B. "things will get better" a more accurate title is needed.

B. Realism, things will get worse - before they get better again

 

[RanchMan90]

I just paid .98 total, buyers Commision, freight and cost of calves for average 476lbs calves.
I haven't worked out my cost of feed yet or my roi but feed is real cheap and 8wts are bringing 1.20 in the city.
I'll buy puts in 50,000lbs contracts to protect the downside.
As harvest slows down I'll start running exact numbers but I can tell at a glance that works.

Can't beat that. Is that on #1 steers in Arkansas?

No, 1.5-2 Mississippi calves.
Most have nuts so I'll have to upgrade them.
Will usually upgrade 1/2 a point.

We've gotten some from Mississippi from prairie livestock that bought them. Could you explain buying puts on a load? I'm sure that would help out a lot here

 

[Son of Butch]

Guess I better start buying then

9. hopelessness/capitulation ...... you've already passed panic?

I'm guessing the market at about 6.8 - past fear heading for desperation, with 8. panic yet to come
9 (capitulation) increased herd dispersal and forced bank sales with sharp drop in retaining replacement females

 

[Craig Miller]

Guess I better start buying then

9. hopelessness/capitulation ...... you've already passed panic?

I'm guessing the market at about 6.8 - past fear heading for desperation, with 8. panic yet to come
9 (capitulation) increased herd dispersal and forced bank sales with sharp drop in retaining replacement females

Well I have been at this point since probably spring. I had other forces controlling some of my roi ( if you could call it that on such a small level) But I have remedied that situation and fully intend to buy early in the coming spring.

 

[Aaron]

I guess I am a little slow - I'm still at #4. Euphoria. Can't believe the run we had and what I was able to accomplish while we had it.