#### larryshoat

##### Well-known member

This was a question I found .

Larry

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- Thread starter larryshoat
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This was a question I found .

Larry

No....because I want the goat!! I have enough cars and trucks.

OP

Larry

OP

buckmaster33":1qjcn0x9 said:No....because I want the goat!! I have enough cars and trucks.

:lol2: :lol2: :lol2: That may be the berst answer I've ever heard .

Larry

edit - to clarify I had a 1:3 chance the first go now I got a 1:2 on the second. Sounds odd but changing the door will increase my odds of winning. Kinda like T values.

OP

We can set up a small game to prove this . Take 2 jokers and an ace from a deck of cards, let the ace represent the car . Have a partner lay out the three cards, then you pick 1 of the three, record whether you won (got the ace) or lost (got the joker), do this like 30 times . Next have your partner lay out the cards in the same way, make your pick, but this time have your partner reveal a joker from the remaining 2 cards, then switch from your original choice to the card that is left, do this 30 times and record the results .

Larry

larryshoat":3snvct2z said:Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors,opens another door, say #3, which has a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to pick door #2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?

This was a question I found .

Larry

Depends, was the goat behind door #3 made by Pontiac?

OP

cfpinz":20iuh0r2 said:larryshoat":20iuh0r2 said:Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors,opens another door, say #3, which has a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to pick door #2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?

This was a question I found .

Larry

Depends, was the goat behind door #3 made by Pontiac?

:lol2: That's never been my luck, for me when they say goat they don't mean GTO, they mean goat .

Larry

larryshoat":2uskyvsk said:

We can set up a small game to prove this . Take 2 jokers and an ace from a deck of cards, let the ace represent the car . Have a partner lay out the three cards, then you pick 1 of the three, record whether you won (got the ace) or lost (got the joker), do this like 30 times . Next have your partner lay out the cards in the same way, make your pick, but this time have your partner reveal a joker from the remaining 2 cards, then switch from your original choice to the card that is left, do this 30 times and record the results .

Larry

I know the point of this was to spark debate, but I'm going to play along anyway. If you choose door #1, we all agree the odds are 1:3 you chose the car. Where I disagree is that the host is always going to take away one of the wrong answers (the goat). This leaves you with a new choice between only 2 doors (stay with what you got or take the other). The odds are 50/50 and always will be.

OP

Well, I would encourage you to set up the card game and see what the outcome is .

Larry

Larry

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:lol: :lol: I had one of those! 1969 and that "olive green" color. She was a runner...cfpinz":35jkdgk0 said:larryshoat":35jkdgk0 said:Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors,opens another door, say #3, which has a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to pick door #2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?

This was a question I found .

Larry

Depends, was the goat behind door #3 made by Pontiac?

Saw one on the muscle car auction go for a whopping $126,000.

Sorry Larry don't mean to derail your thread or make anyone loose their train of thought.

Cal

OP

Calman":2fwe4g1w said:

Saw one on the muscle car auction go for a whopping $126,000.

Sorry Larry don't mean to derail your thread or make anyone loose their train of thought.

Cal

No problem Cal, I think the GTO thread is more interesting anyway .

Larry

OP

ga. prime":170cdai4 said:

That's about the way I feel about it too . That website is about people that have something to prove . Marilyn has the highest recorded IQ, it's not like I'm second . I think Marilyn is the greatest and when she gives an answer I spend my time trying to figure out why I came up with the wrong answer .

Larry

OP

1982vett":qf89igxl said:

I know vett, that is the exact same way I approached it too . What convinced me I was wrong was the little card game I talked about in the earlier post, after I decided that switching worked, I thought about it for 2 years before I came up with an answer as to why it worked and that is that if I choose #1 and there is a 1/3 chance that the car is there, it also means that there is a 2/3 chance that it is not there, in other words there is a 2/3 chance that the car is behind one of the 2 doors that I didn't choose and if the host always opens a door with a goat behind it then the chance of the remaining door is 2/3 . If when we made a choice on the first door and then just took that door out of play, I think we would all agree that the odds of the car being behind the remaining 2 doors is 2/3, therefore if we eliminate a wrong answer from those remaining 2 doors the chance of the door that is left is 2/3 .

Very confusing I know, I think the trick to understanding this is that the host will always eliminate 1 wrong answer from the remaining 2 doors .

Larry