5 years ago you said you had horses but miss having cattle, you talked about starting a ranch from scratch. That means zero does it not? Then you bought a place with 60 acres - maybe buy a couple to start. 3 years ago you bought cattle and were going to buy your replacements. How long has the replacement program been running? You're talking about 12 year longevity. Anyone can go look through your posts and see.
I actually don't think your numbers are far fetched - with a small number of cattle over a short time. Zero calf losses in a decent sized herd are definitely uncommon, so is a 99% breed back rate, especially in a 45 day window. In large numbers, over many years. You're speaking with authority and representing yourself like you've been doing it for years and in numbers. My impression has been that you're probably a decent operator, you definitely have some good knowledge and ideas but you just haven't had the sh!t hit the fan yet and you're starting to think it's you and your cattle. Those of us not attaining 99% breed backs, who lose the odd calf or cow and waste our time helping cows calve aren't all idiots stuck in our ways, we've just been around long enough and run enough numbers that we've won the unlucky lottery and have figured out we can save a few and make some money.
I never bought a place with 60 acres. I was renting a place while I was on active duty still. I bought a house and a couple of sections when I got medically retired then found several leases on top of that.
I had a few cows with me at that point. I don't consider that a herd. The rest of mine were back in KS. However, I knew at that point what I had wasn't what I wanted, and I wanted to start from scratch with a herd built with the genetics and qualities I wanted. At the time of those posts I didn't know I was getting medically retired. I was considering getting out though, maybe doing reserve or active NG. I was considering a lot. The medical retirement hit fast and quick after that. Needless to say that changed a lot for me and my plans and I went from thinking I would pick up an additional 10-15 head while active duty still to picking up 100. Things change and I was able to grow faster than I had planned getting out.
You conviently ignored the more important aspects of what I said. These aren't just my numbers. The friend I sourced my cows from originally uses the exact same crossbreeding program. He's been at it for 50 years. His numbers are pretty dang close to mine and he has a lot more cattle than I do. You're right. My numbers alone mean very little. But my numbers matching 50 years of other numbers using the same genetics and crossbreeding program do mean something. It's not coincidence. I'm pretty good with numbers and analysis..I've looked through his books. I've looked at his cows and calving. His breed back is around 93% with 50 years of numbers to even it out. I'm sure mine will settle out to the same.
I have a 17, almost 18 year old cow, and multiple 12-15 year olds out of her. And plenty over 10. I'm keeping replacements back to cover when they stop producing...how can I predict longevity? Because I've got 50 years of other numbers to fall back on that show me what to expect, plus what I'm seeing from the old cows in my herd and the multiple generations of their daughters I have in my herd. I'm using the same genetics and crossbreeding program, and my numbers already match his in every other area such as early breeding, calving easy, fleshing, disease/parasite resistance, etc... longevity is just another metric of the same.
It takes 3000 plus acres to run 100 cows here most years...more during a drought. It's not a large herd...but for around here it's not really a small one either. Low end of moderate sized probably. If I was in a different area of the US I could have a lot more cows for the same ground... something I'm considering.
You say I haven't had the **** hit the fan yet...you're right. I spent plenty of time kicking sand around in Afghanistan and having **** hit the fan and one lesson I got from it is this...when **** hits the fan, how you react, what you do, and what you have prepared for is going to determine how you make it through. Barring some terrible disease they aren't vacced against, there's not much I'm not prepared for and don't have continencies for. Things that should have made the **** hit the fan for me didn't.
Harsh winter, bomb cyclone in March 2019 with 95pmh wind and 10ft drifts built in one day...zero losses. Not because of my cows but because of my preparation. Other people were hauling dead cows and calves out of their pastures for weeks as the snow melted.
Terrible drought, old neighbors who've been in the business all their lives that had to liquidate a lot of their herd. That should have caused a wreck for me. Certainly kept me from growing more like I wanted last year but it didn't make me go backwards.
Lost one of my main private treaty buyers to COVID effects. Had to change plans and sell at the sale barn. In December and end of January. Did good in December and really good in January when I took the bigger load. Several other repeat private treaty buyers who keep coming back to me over others in the area they have tried.
Had a huge copper deficiency from some high sulfur and iron in one of the wells on a new lease ground right in the middle of breeding season. Should have caused a huge wreck in breed back but I was able to identify and correct it and the cows were able to bounce back fast from it.
Local guy lost 40 cows to high nitrates in hay. I almost bought from the same source (looked like great hay) but refused because they didn't have nitrate tests on it. Avoided another huge wreck with caution.
**** hits the fan... doesn't mean the results have to be shitty.
Maybe I'll have wreck when I start calving at the end of next month. I'll happily eat crow if I do and post about it. I did have one of the angus bulls fail 2 BSEs (he's headed to freezer land next week. Processors are booked out 6+ months here from COVID BS). I had to turn out one of the hereford bulls I had held back out with that group of cows to cover them. Not what I had planned, but they all bred during the normal season.
If my friend got on here and posted his 50 years worth of bookeeping and numbers that are pretty similar to mine with a much larger herd...would you tell him he just hasn't had **** hit the fan yet? Maybe find another reason why he's wrong or got magic cattle?
I don't get how people can be so stuck in their ways and thoughts that they can't consider otherwise.
My grandpa ran cattle till he was 89 and finally "retired. my great grandpa did so till he was 94...he passed in a car wreck at 96 on the way to a date with his 78 year old girlfriend...My grandpa had more years of experience than probably anyone on this group (he too spent time in the military then came back and took over the ranch)...and yet he said if he could do it again he would do what I'm doing now...if that doesn't tell you something idk what will.
Unpopular statement: Doing something for 50 years doesn't mean there's not a better way of doing it. The farming industry has been forced to evolve with the times...make changes like no till drilling (which when I grew up and we were growing corn/milo for silage definitely wasn't a thing). Farming has had to trend towards how to make more profit on the same acreage. How to be more efficient.... meanwhile the beef industry has been focused on making bigger and faster growing calves at the expense of sustainability and efficiency...and it is heading towards a wreck with the way the world is changing. If we are all still alive in 20 years, I think the conversation on here may go very differently than it is now.