Summer weather predictions

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Too much of a good thing, that's very unfortunate. Around here, you never hear of houses getting flooded. Everyone moved out of the bottoms and the flood plains decades ago.

As for summer weather predictions, the blackberries are blooming here, which is a good 2-3 weeks earlier than normal. However, no sign of the cooler temps that come with blackberry winter for the extended forecast. It's been an odd year already, weatherwise, so not too surprising.
 
Got a couple more inches of rain late last night here but it all ran off my hill. I did get news last night my previous neighbor's home back in East Tx has 18-24" of water thru out.
My sisters are both on high ground but unable to go very far due to flood water on the lateral roads and main highways. I haven't been able to contact my best friend back there, that is running cows on my old place, but he knows to cut fences or open gates to get them on a hill just South of there IF, he was able to get to it before the roads all went under water last Monday.

I'm guessing Caustic is in about the same shape; on high ground but probably can't travel as usual. Like all the rest that gets torrential rains for long period of time, any leaks they might have that go un-noticed, get revealed. Had one at my old place on a window high up I never knew leaked but after Harvey saw a water stain on the paint below the window.

Water may start down back at my old digs today. Close to record high water. I don't miss that part of living there. New owner is getting a lesson on why you don't go building a lot of outbuildings and infrastructure on grade there.

Pictures posted yesterday by San Jacinto County Precinct 3 Constable Sam Houston (will be high sheriff after November)
Water over FM 945 which runs in front of my old property.
945 may 2 2024.jpg


Winter's Bayou bridge, located on highway 150. This bayou flows into the E Fork San Jac river a few miles south of my old place. This is what often happens there. Serious flood water appears, under perfectly clear skies and catches lots of people unaware.

945winters5-2a.jpg

945winters5-2b.jpg
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The friend's sister was rescued out a window on the 2nd story of the house... at least she is okay. Fema had offered a buy out after last flood... she told my friend she is done and will take the buyout .... she's done. About time, she has been flooded several times....
 
The friend's sister was rescued out a window on the 2nd story of the house... at least she is okay. Fema had offered a buy out after last flood... she told my friend she is done and will take the buyout .... she's done. About time, she has been flooded several times....
A lot of people have built along the pretty creek or river and wonder why they flood.
Houston is one concrete mass from Galveston to Huntsville from Cleveland to Katy Texas.
Just look on the map of how many square miles is now subdivision or shopping centers linked by concrete.

Water has nowhere to go but up.
 
And the rivers and creeks don't flow as they once did. Clogged up with trees people let grow and fall down.
I know I used to wade fish the East fork for miles as a kid. I'd have to have lineman spurs on to do it now just to get over all the trees. Everyone used to just have barbed wire fences perpendicular to the channel and water flowed thru 'em pretty good but nowadays, so many have gone to woven wire and they catch every little leaf, twig and branch that comes along, slowing down flow. It all adds up.

Lake Houston really really needs to have more flood gates in it. There are lots of problems with adding them tho, not the least is the fact that they used so little steel in the concrete.....plus the huge downstream environmental study that would have to be done by the design prime contractor Black and Veatch. They recommend 1000' of crest gates, which are air bladder type gates and not the hydraulic or electric motor operated gates like other dams have. Currently, L. Houston can only release about 10,000 cu ft/sec wich is a tiny paltry amount, considering a 100 yr flood send 286,000 cu ft/sec into the lake. (Harvey sent 400,000 cu ft/second to the lake.)

Read down about 3/4 of the way to the bottom of this:
 
This is but one of the reasons ya don't drive thru high water. this picture from above:
945 may 2 2024.jpg





Same place, but the water has dropped some, revealing a washout about 14" deep x 100' long. Anyone driving thru the high water would almost assuredly dropped off into deeper water and been washed away off the highway embankment and into the fence on the right side of the roadbed. I saw it happen in nearly the same spot about 10 years ago, except the driver was rescued (barely) by the county dumptruck & driver that happened to be there. He got arrested tho, by DPS for driving around a road closure barricade.
(It's an Farm to Market Road, meaning it's a state thing and they estimate at least 2 weeks before it will dry out enough to take bore samples and get it repaired.

IMG_20240504_195524 (1)a.jpg
 
It has flat been pouring here since about 9pm Sat night. I mean in buckets! Headed E & NE, again.

Flash Flood Warning for... Coryell County in central Texas... Northern Lampasas County in central Texas...

Until 430 AM CDT.

At 156 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible. Flash flooding is likely ongoing.
 
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We are finally getting some much needed showers. Calling for chances all this week. Not sure it will be much help to the first cut of hay but should get everybody's corn out the ground and give the crabgrass a start.
 
It has flat been pouring here since about 9pm Sat night. I mean in buckets! Headed E & NE, again.

Flash Flood Warning for... Coryell County in central Texas... Northern Lampasas County in central Texas...

Until 430 AM CDT.

At 156 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible. Flash flooding is likely ongoing.
Got 1 1/4".
 
Finially raining here. Now it needs to warm up a tad to get things growing. 30 and frost at nigtmht and 45 during the day isn't growing too much too quick.

As for summer predictions it's like throwing darts blindfolded. I've seen predictions of cool/wet to hot/dry depending which model someone interpreted.
 
Like @SmokinM we are getting much needed and appreciated rain. I told my friend that I would have gladly taken a couple inches of what y'all have had down there to take the pressure off a little. We had .3 as of last evening, I will go out and check rain gauge later today. There was a good sized part of the state that the local station south of us had the drought monitor showing us in "abnormally dry" zone already... not good for springtime.
Many of my dairy farmers I test have held off on planting corn because it was just too dry. They will all be going gangbusters this week as soon as they can get on the ground and not clog up the corn planters.
Some have already taken off their wheat/rye as it was heading out, short, but most got it in to be ready to plant. Our hay fields are short and see some grasses close to heading out due to the dry weather we had and too warm too early temps.
Much as it gets aggravating, and sometimes devastating, I am still glad that at least the govt cannot control everything like mother nature...
 
I think it is going to hot and dry here this summer. We got maybe a half inch about a week ago. The forecast is showing some wet weather for the coming week, not sure it is going to amount to much.
 
Currently, torrential rain, 60 mph winds and a few minutes ago, marble sixed hail. Moving ENE.
I'm guessing we have easily gotten over 1"rain in the last 45 minutes with lots more on the way. .
 

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