Replacement Heifer Prices

[plumber_greg]

Doc, you will never convince the,"What can I make on this cow, this year, this month, right now," crowd. They won't look far enough ahead to see it.
AllForage, The whole registered BS community better not fail. Seedstock is just as important as the commercial guys. I know there is some BS in that business, but it's not all that way. gs

 

[smnherf]

Sterling Beef Tracker
Bred Heifers $1,600 - $2,585 [2,100 average]
so i would guesstimate 1,100? - 2085? [1,725 average?]
personally i would not pay more than 2.60 lb x 750 = $1,950 hd

In our area you can't touch a good bred heifer for $3000. Probably more like $3500. Plenty of junk around for $2500.

What assumptions are people using to project a profit from a $3,000 bred heifer ?

At current prices, 4 calves at 1500 equals 6000 in revenue less your variable costs and it certainly is possible to make money on the right kind of bred heifer.

 

[AllForage]

Plumber

Who said fail? They just make up a new direction and most follow. Do you believe everything in the sale catalogs?

I think you know what segment I am referring to.

 

[AllForage]

I do have some old cows, but I have never had all my heifers average out to produce 8 calves.

So Steve why is this? You running them too hard? Wrong types? Is it from buying in genetics from the barn?

 

[Nesikep]

I was looking at bred heifer prices at our local barn.. hundreds of them went through, the vast majority at about $26-2900.

I figure it usually takes a heifer 5 years to pay for herself, and only after that you start to really make anything on her. Her first calves aren't going to be as big, and she either has a large debt (her feed or her purchase price) to pay off, and then the feed it takes to raise the calves. I think anyone who says a heifer can pay for herself in less time than that has grossly exaggerated profit margins from not figuring in all the costs and risks.
If you had to get rid of each bred heifer after 5 calves for butcher or less, I'd have a hard time seeing anyone being able to make a profit. Even if they aren't the heaviest producers, the good old reliable cows are going to be the ones that pay bills for you. So far I've had 2 cows get to having 16 calves.. I want more of them kind.

In my herd spreadsheet, I score my dams on a sliding scale by how many calves they've had... their first calf is worth 1, and the tenth is worth 1.5 (as an example).

 

[Tim/South]

At some point every momma cow was a bred heifer.

 

[greybeard]

Yep, good point Tim.
Getting from the bred heifers to the "good old reliable cows" stage is the tricky part.

 

[tamarack]

All the old cows were once young cows, a 900 lb yearling heifer is 2000$ or a little more, if you sell bred heifers for 2500$ it is hardly worth taking chances on keeping bred heifers for sale. If every one sold their heifers open were would the cattle industry be? We need to pay a good profit for breds or the herd will still fall. JMO

 

[Nesikep]

Here's a bit of statistics from my herd...
I have culled 70 cows so far, average cull age was 6 1/2 years old (so 4 1/2 calves each)
Since 2009 I have culled 14, with an average age of 8 years old. So I am improving that aspect slowly (Getting better at choosing? Having better stock to choose from?)
I will still have some underperformers after that, but I think I'll get to the end of the troublesome ones.
As long as I have decent heifers to choose from, I have a hard time justifying $3000 bred heifers unless they are exceptional... I did see a PB Gelbvieh bred heifer this fall that I would have paid that for, but I think she went for more than that!

 

[Son of Butch]

At current prices, 4 calves at 1500 equals 6000 in revenue less your variable costs and it certainly is possible to make money on the right kind of bred heifer.

I've been buying good colored feeder steers for $1,000 - $1,450 this fall
so, you can't tell me everyone is getting $1,500 a calf.
Even a $1500 calf doesn't gross 1500 after commission and trucking.
If you raise livestock, you are going to have deadstock.
Nobody gets 100% of bred heifer calves to market 100% of the time.
In addition, you can expect calf prices to drop during the life of a bred heifer bought today.

I'm just saying don't get too carried away when calculating what you can pay when buying bred heifers.
(Unless you're buying mine.)

 

[highgrit]

You have to be foolish to spend 2k on a open heifer. I've had a few heifers take 2 1/2 to 3 years before they calved, and some that were still open at 3 years old. That's the reason we palpate twice a year now.

 

[Bigfoot]

deleated post-----------wrong thread

 

[3waycross]

You have to be foolish to spend 2k on a open heifer. I've had a few heifers take 2 1/2 to 3 years before they calved, and some that were still open at 3 years old. That's the reason we palpate twice a year now.

No offense and I really mean no offense but if you have heifers that haven't calved by 3 then you really do need to spend some money on some new genetics.

 

[Nesikep]

I think you'd have to be foolish to spend $2K on an open heifer that has been with a bull, regardless of age, but if you're buying a NICE yearling heifer i think $2K is a reasonable (in todays world) price, however if she is open after being with the bull a while, she's worth meat price, not more!

 

[highgrit]

I agree 100% with you 3Waycross. We've done dumb stuff in the past, and I'm sure we'll do it in the future also. But it won't be the same dumb stuff.

 

[3waycross]

I think you'd have to be foolish to spend $2K on an open heifer that has been with a bull, regardless of age, but if you're buying a NICE yearling heifer i think $2K is a reasonable (in todays world) price, however if she is open after being with the bull a while, she's worth meat price, not more!

I assume that you mean commercial heifers. However I sell my cull registered heifers for market price. You won't buy my top end heifers for that kind of money. Not when they have the potential to produce a 4 to5 thousand dollar bull

 

[East Caney]

It's all risk based. I just offered 125% the price of a pair for a weaned heifer. She could pan out, or she could not. She never will pan out at my place because the offer was turned down. The breeder saw the potential value in her as much as I did and wasn't willing to part ways with her. It only takes one exceptional calf to make that $2,500 look like pocket change…Though the calf that hits the ground is all up to God, I'm confident in the eye He's given me to be able to select an animal with most desirable phenotype and a history of performance genetics to match.

EC

 

[Nesikep]

I think you'd have to be foolish to spend $2K on an open heifer that has been with a bull, regardless of age, but if you're buying a NICE yearling heifer i think $2K is a reasonable (in todays world) price, however if she is open after being with the bull a while, she's worth meat price, not more!

I assume that you mean commercial heifers. However I sell my cull registered heifers for market price. You won't buy my top end heifers for that kind of money. Not when they have the potential to produce a 4 to5 thousand dollar bull

I am talking commercial. I mentioned a very pretty gelbvieh bred heifer a couple times that I would have paid well above that for, I don't know what she ended up going for, but I'm going to guess it was in the $3-4000 range.. certainly a front pasture cow.

 

[bigbull338]

all the reg beefmaster breeders know if you get a top end reg beefmaster weaned heifer bought for $2500 then some1 is sleeping.all the private treaty sales i see start at $3000 for said heifer.

 

[smnherf]

At current prices, 4 calves at 1500 equals 6000 in revenue less your variable costs and it certainly is possible to make money on the right kind of bred heifer.

I've been buying good colored feeder steers for $1,000 - $1,450 this fall
so, you can't tell me everyone is getting $1,500 a calf.
I never said everyone is getting 1500 a calf, but in this country if you wont give 1500 a calf you aren't buying nothing but some scrubs. The good 5 cwt and 6 cwt calves are bringing from 1500 up to over 1700. But don't believe me, check Ft Pierre livestock, hub city livestock or mobridge livestock auction sale reports.

Even a $1500 calf doesn't gross 1500 after commission and trucking Never said it did. I realize everyones cost structure is different and left it open on the expense side for anyone to factor it in.


If you raise livestock, you are going to have deadstock. obviously

Nobody gets 100% of bred heifer calves to market 100% of the time. Another obvious statement, that's why the good heifers, ai bred to the right bull are actually worth more than "the ones bred to a black bull"


In addition, you can expect calf prices to drop during the life of a bred heifer bought today.Maybe, but its possible that next falls prices are higher than they are now, if corn gets cheaper and the availability of feeder cattle shrink some more. The cattle fax people say there will be significantly less fat cattle marketed in 2015 vs 2014. Fat cattle prices could go higher.

I'm just saying don't get too carried away when calculating what you can pay when buying bred heifers.I am not. I was simply showing that $3000 is not too much for a bred heifer if she is a good one. Actually could be a good investment. But if 2500 is the limit for people we will never build our cow numbers back even close to where it was a few years ago as that is just barely more than a good fed one and why would any sane person go through the expense of breeding a heifer when they are worth more to the feedlot. /color]
(Unless you're buying mine.)