Putting numbers on how you value a cow

[Nesikep]

I've been doing a lot of spreadsheet work with the data I have on my herd, and one is to try to put a number on how valuable a cow is in the herd... it's not perfect yet, as I have other criteria I have to add, so for now it's based solely on how many calves a cow (and her progeny) have had

So... A cow's total score is partly based on how many calves she's had, and partly based on the score her offspring have had...

Now, how would you make that split... her score contributes 40/50/60% of her overall score?

The second problem is how much more desirable is it to have cows that live to have many calves... so, I found a linear (1:1) score doesn't favour the long lived cows at all, so I used a quadratic (squared, 1=1, 2=4, 4=16) formula, which favours them a bit much... I settled for an inbetween... using the number of calves she's had, raised to the power of 1.4, which yields something like 1=1, 5=10, 10=25, and 15=44. I find this give enough importance to long lived cows.

So in the spreadsheet, one column is for a cows score, the next is for the scores of her offspring, added up, the next column is for her total score (her score * 40% + her offspring's score * 60%, for example), to get her total score... then I have a final column that scales it so the highest score is 100

I will have to add some modifiers so that relative calf weight, attitude, and problematics could affect it... but that'll be later.

If you guys use spreadsheets for your herd, try what I have here (If you want I'll post instructions on how to get the formulas to work for Microsoft Excel) and see how the numbers look to you, especially on valuing older cows... Until a cow is 6 years old or so, she's only paying off her replacement cost and feed, only after that does she stand a chance to make you money, thus, a 16-calf cow is indeed 4 times more valuable in the herd than one that'll only make 4

Anyhow, i'm all ears for input on this

 

[TexasBred]

In theory it might work but in reality the values you apply to the various traits are pre-determined by you and make the end result come out to what you are wanting to see. Someone else might have totally different values from yours resulting in a totally different score for the same cow.

 

[Nesikep]

yes, that's totally true, and I said there were other factors that still need to be applied... like feed costs, calf size, being trouble free, and so on... At this point it's only based on longevity of the cow and her offspring, and I would guess that for anyone, an animal with a longer average productive life stands a better chance of making you money.

That being said, I tallied up the ages at which we have culled at, a total of about 60 animals to date. The peak is at 3 years, where we've culled about 10 animals total, then it quickly levels off to a total of about 5 or 6 per age group until 10 years, where it drops to 1. I would say that from this, perhaps more experience on our part would have made it possible to reduce the number or 3 year olds culled by choosing better calves to keep.
Our average cull age through the 21 years we've had cows is 6.3 years... my aim is to make it about 8 to 10 years, however I'm not going to do that at the cost of keeping cows that don't earn their keep

I'm just looking for input... I should repost my spreadsheet to google docs, perhaps a lot of it would make more sense there

 

[tom4018]

Our spreadsheet does not sound as elaborate as yours but we track their calving interval as one of the important things.

Would love to see your.

 

[snake67]

Nessie - I almost always read your posts - and quite often enjoy them - but your spread sheet is schitte in my mind - too complex - too many variable - too many what iffs and so on.........

I think you have far too much time on your hands and you what the devil does with those idle hands LOL

I value a cow on what I can get at the sale barn today.

You die today and they all go to the sale - that money goes to your estate.

That is ALL they are worth - nothing more and nothing less.

Does not matter on what she can give me or has given me

What she has done in the past is past

What she might do tomorrow is immaterial - she could be dead this afternoon.

Our average cull is around 14 years of age.

You mention you calculate the cost to keep a cow - I would be curious to know your daily cost to keep one cow.

I am going out on a limb and making a guess it comes close to 2 bucks a day all in - and I would not be surprised if it were more.

If memory serves me correctly - you have around 21 - 22 cows and a few hangers on. That means at a minimum you need - for 20 cows - before any incidentals roll in - $14,600 or more dollars just to keep them on the place at two bucks a day.

I know ours is high at 1.45 a day - but the snow has been deep and the hay has been scarce this year - so when our books are done in about a months time I am probably in for a shock - hopefully the sheep income will help ease the pain that I am sure is coming when the new figure is calculated.

CB is probably the best on the boards here and he cannot get that low on a regular basis - so I love to compete with him - it is good guys like him that keep things lively - someday I am actually going to meet him.

In my opinion the value of a cow is a useless piece of information.

What she costs you compared to what you earn off of her each year is the important information

And in my humble opinion, if people were not working and spending their money to pay for their cows, they would almost all be tits up - less than 1% of people on this board actually make money on cattle. And almost all of them will disagree with me because they do not factor in any of the true costs in keeping that animal.

One tank load of diesel in the tractor is a cost - fill it 15 times a year? How many calves to pay for that alone? You would be surprised at how many do not put that one little piece into the cost of keeping the cow. If you have a 100 dollar fill you have just spent 1500 bucks. Any tractor running at less than 25 cents a horsepower hour is a myth - so that 100 horsepower tractor costs at least 25 bucks an hour dry to run - many if not most actually cost more than that. And so on and so on and so on. One new tire or fuel pump just jacked that price up a bunch - and is seldom worked into the true cost.

Most folks just eat those costs and use their off farm pay cheque to cover those costs then come here to brag about how much they made on a sale.

If you get 90 cents a pound for a thousand pounder and your expenses were 50 bucks - or you get a buck fifty a pound for that steer but your costs were more than a thousand bucks in vet bills and "how long can he lay down" and "how can I lift him" - and "what kind of drugs should I use" - who did the best? Unfortunately that steer probably sold for the same price as the first one - meaning you actually lost money at the sale - even though you got a nice cheque from the sale barn. A lot of people never see this relationship.

It is a business not just a life style for me - which is why I probably shoot faster than most here - cost is the driver that kills profit. And not many actually play that game. You lay down on me for 24 hours you get immediate attention and if you do not respond you are dead - and off you go on the dead wagon. Period. Cow, bull, calf, steer - it does not matter.

National figures in the past that have been discussed and shown - right here on this site - show that if you are really making 100 bucks a cow per year you are doing extremely well. Many do not come even close to that. Even more are in the red. High prices are countered by high input costs so the increased return of today truly has not appreciated as much as most think.

He ll, you want to make money you need to look at cattle as a money loser for years. Keeping 100 cows and making a 100 bucks a head means you just cleared 10 grand. You cannot keep 100 cows on 10 grand today. And you sure as heck cannot keep 10 cows for one thousand bucks.

That is why I sometimes shake my head with all the figuring I see and read and hear about on this site.

Most folks here are doing it as a hobby - fine - spend the money - but do not come and tell us how well you are doing people - because in the end you are working to support that hobby.

So to repeat myself:

A cow is worth what she will give you today at the sale barn. Nothing more and nothing less. The proof is in this - you die today (hope not!) - your estate will sell those cows and put the money in the bank. Period. The estate got what they were worth at that specific moment in time.

Sorry for the hi-jack - just got carried away with my thinking again.

Have a great weekend all

Bez

 

[houstoncutter]

:clap: Bez you go to the head of the class, well stated indeed!

 

[rjbovine]

I know I'll be glad when it only cost me ( out of my pocket ) 100 dollars a cow a yr to keep her. Let alone making a hundred bucks . Like your post snake ! rj

 

[Son of Butch]

In the spring of 2011 to produce an 1148 pound springing heifer my breakeven cost was $1,225.
That's the last I checked...I probably was too depressed to do 2012 and 2013 numbers

 

[Nesikep]

I don't think I ever mentioned the cash value of any cow, nor the cash feed costs to feed them... I was only thinking about the relative costs from one cow in the herd to the next.

I completely agree with everything you say Bez, and get no argument from me... I'll tell you right now, that if one of our cows eats on a yearly average a half a bale a day's worth of feed (they pig out in pasture), that's $4/day per cow = ~$100 bucks a day for the herd = $36500 in feed costs, or about $1500 per cow per year ... we're not even close to making money off cows... they're there to give us manure, which enables us to grow other things which pay better. Cows to have one good thing going for them is that you can always sell them, and as many as you want, other crops are harder to sell.


Back to what I was originally going on about.... If a cow and her offspring routinely get culled at 6 years old, they probably aren't much good... On the other hand, if they all have a dozen calves, you don't need to keep as many replacements, which means you have more calves going to the sale barn.

There are also things that is really hard to put numbers on... like handlability, for those who don't have really good penning facilities... I vaccinated my whole herd except for 2 animals while they were eating hay this year... I quite like that, but indeed it may not be of value to someone else