Profit from cattle?? Where is it?

[usernametaken]

[Ohio River - I think you just explained what all the "doomsayers" are trying to get across. No one is saying what you want to do can't be done. Nothing ventured nothing gained is exactly right ! But your need to market what you are trying to accomplish will be the highest need in your type of venture and without the background your marketing skills won't start at 0 and work up, they will start in the negatives to work up. That is where your curve is the highest and hardest to overcome and where a year with a cow/calf producer or one of the many other suggestions would make you a credible marketer - and give your idea a better chance of success.

One more thought - in such a highly competitive area while you start at -35 in your marketing you will be competing in sales with people that were born into it, and have lived it all their lives, with as much or more education. In other words when you start at -35 they began at + 1000 and continue adding to their learning curve all the time.

 

[Jogeephus]

Does this kinda remind you of BlackThunder?

 

[dyates]

One of the biggest reasons people are going out of business is because they listen to and follow the hyped up advise from everyone, including the universities. If you buy 2000 dollar bulls, you should have calves that weigh 50 pounds more. If you buy 2000 dollar cows, you can add another 50 pounds. If you use this product you gain 10 more pounds, another product, 10 more, etc., etc., etc. I know most of this information is true; if it all were true, everyone would be weaning 1000 pound calves. Ask your own questions and do what you think will work for you. There are plenty of farmers around here producing mongrel calves from mongrel cows and mongrel bulls who undoubtedly are making more money than any of the guys who are hemorrhaging money trying to keep up with the latest and greatest. That's just my two cents worth.

 

[usernametaken]

Does this kinda remind you of BlackThunder?

Absolutely !

 

[usernametaken]

Not the fact that I can produce one or not. But, what will I do when I get the genetic jumper. I would need a market for her or him and I am not sure it will be there. No one wants to eat or scrap a genetic jumper do they??

The problem is how do you know that that calf IS a genetic jumper?? A calve's EPDs are just the average of his parents and a calve's individual performance is completely disreguarded in the EPD calculations if he is born out of a recipient. Therefore the best INTERIM $B, Weaning Wt EPD etc. you can produce is highest available trait leading sire to the highest trait leading dam that you can purchase. Three years from now when that progeny is a two year old....given that 350,000 more Angus were registered last year and the EPDs are recalculated every six months....how likely is it that it will still be in top 1% of the breed? Even if the animal is, it's numbers won't have any accuracy until he/she starts producing calves and it's numbers are as likely to drop as go down. A genetic jumper raises the bar. Doing what the EPDs predict is NOT good enough. 5-6 years from now many animals will likely have passed today's trait leaders. A genetic jumper has to do better than it's INTERIM numbers would indicate and the only way to know that (for a bull) is to breed him to a lot of cows in multiple herds which means promoting a good bull calf KNOWING that the odds are against him being truly GREAT. For a cow, she almost has to give birth to a great sire to be proven a "genetic jumper" in her lifetime.

Conversation reminds me of some things in horses. Which thoroughbred was it thats offspring never came close ( so far) in performance to the sire - was it Secretariat ? I'm sure that was with the finest brood mares alive.

Wasn't it Leo that couldn't produce a like stud colt in the QH ? They finally realized the value was in the daughters of Leo - but that took quite a while to figure out.

I don't think Seabiscuit's offspring fared that well either - maybe because it was not so much his genetics as it was his mind and heart that made him great even with Hardtack as a sire.

Bottom line being all the best genetics in the world are worth no more than the average horse/cow or other livestock until it is proven that those traits that made the donor on both sides desirable are portrayed in the offspring which needs a minimum of 2 years and more time would be desired. Produce 4 out of 5 superior offspring and sell just one to a high profile and very vocal person in the business and that one is the one who doesn't do well and he could throw enough doubt to really hurt you or end the game. Or if he gets the best one it could make you. Definitely a crap shoot.

It's a fun exercise to think about. Just as fun would be to produce an Abe Lincoln or Andy Jackson from basic stock and probably just as likely to happen that you get an exceptional one with a little skill in breeding. 8)

 

[Howdyjabo]

If you go into farming with money you can make money- problem is there are very few people wanting to farm/ and has the constitution to stay in it---- that also has already well lined pockets. AND other than a few exceptions theres better places to invest your already accumulated wealth to make more money- the returns on farming are not that impressive- unless you find a niche. But even niches can get flooded if theres too many other people that can do it too(pumpkins,christmas trees,even organics)
USDA has done too good of a job- ensuring that there is a cheap source of food for our citizens- now they expect it.

Go into farming with Debt and have it be your sole income to live off of- and it gets really difficult to make it thru the bad years-- and with farming there are ALWAYS going to be bad years.

You remind me of the ostridge farmers 15 years ago-- it was a pyramid scam. You needed to be in at the top while the getting was good.There ended up being ALOT more people that lost money than those that made good money.
Anything outside of the commercial market IS a pyramid scam. Are you sure you are at the Top of the Angus genetic improvement curve-- or are you sure that the lifeblood commercial market cannot be saturated before you make your killing.

I believe the Angus market will level out(ie saturate) and become difficult to market outside the breed ring for big money . Another example are the Boer goat breeders- they are on the downsilde now and it only took 10 years to saturate the commercial market. Again lots more people lost money than made big money.
It will take longer with the Angus- as there is a bigger commercial market available to flood- but its got a limit to its absorption too.

No one is telling you not to give it a go if you want. Why get irritated at them for trying to tell you the potential pitfalls?
You are obviously already well educated on the up side-- sounds like you have been given a great sales pitch - that alone ought to make you think twice.

Ever hear- if it sounds too good to be true the odds are that it is? Theres a reason its well known.
Get a good feel for your odds.............
and realize that nature has a way of knocking profit out the window with even the best laid plans with Farming.

Now on the up side-- theres always those lucky few that make a killing in pyramid scams- it could be you.............

 

[rockridgecattle]

Black thunder, was that the kid who hijacked his father's user name and pass word?
Thought it sounded famillar too.

 

[dun]

Black thunder, was that the kid who hijacked his father's user name and pass word?
Thought it sounded famillar too.

Doesn;t the term "genetic jumper" pretty much tell you?

 

[hillsdown]

Black thunder, was that the kid who hijacked his father's user name and pass word?
Thought it sounded famillar too.

Doesn;t the term "genetic jumper" pretty much tell you?

What's a genetic jumper?

Also I know of a llama and buffalo farm for sale ;-) .

 

[OhioRiver]

thank the lord....I could not afford to take that large of a pay cut for sure. no nobility in poverty.

BTW I believe you about the no credibility in the game thing.



BTW most people would never even consider hiring you as a hired hand so no need to worry about quitting your job to do that :lol: :lol: :lol: .[/quote]

 

[OhioRiver]

Please don't tell me that you are jealous or anything. It sounds like you are. Don't think that because you don't want an MBA makes it okay for you to bash those that do. And DO NOT think that because you know about cattle that others cannot learn as much as you or MORE.

OR, with your vast business knowledge from having an MBA and not wanting to actually touch the filthy cows, why not play the options market?

 

[OhioRiver]

thank you for telling me that....I am getting some of the facts I need to consider. You are right about more and more cows and bulls being registered. How do you differentiate it then. Will they make a new higher class above registered. I can only see that coming to stave off mediocrity in the registered breed.

Not the fact that I can produce one or not. But, what will I do when I get the genetic jumper. I would need a market for her or him and I am not sure it will be there. No one wants to eat or scrap a genetic jumper do they??

The problem is how do you know that that calf IS a genetic jumper?? A calve's EPDs are just the average of his parents and a calve's individual performance is completely disreguarded in the EPD calculations if he is born out of a recipient. Therefore the best INTERIM $B, Weaning Wt EPD etc. you can produce is highest available trait leading sire to the highest trait leading dam that you can purchase. Three years from now when that progeny is a two year old....given that 350,000 more Angus were registered last year and the EPDs are recalculated every six months....how likely is it that it will still be in top 1% of the breed? Even if the animal is, it's numbers won't have any accuracy until he/she starts producing calves and it's numbers are as likely to drop as go down. A genetic jumper raises the bar. Doing what the EPDs predict is NOT good enough. 5-6 years from now many animals will likely have passed today's trait leaders. A genetic jumper has to do better than it's INTERIM numbers would indicate and the only way to know that (for a bull) is to breed him to a lot of cows in multiple herds which means promoting a good bull calf KNOWING that the odds are against him being truly GREAT. For a cow, she almost has to give birth to a great sire to be proven a "genetic jumper" in her lifetime.

 

[OhioRiver]

probably so...

backhoe......my wife is screaming at me to do one thing. Be able to make the annual house payment with the cows I work with. I don't know how many years I have to do this to get to a level of such but it has a nice ring to it.

Wouldn't it be wise to pay off the mortgage on the house before you buy your first $50,000 donor cow???

 

[OhioRiver]

Some of your statements I buy into. However, why follow the path of those that fail and admit they are doing so. Opinions in this thread come from those that admit they cannot make any money. Why are THEY doing it. Commercial herd may be my way to go for sure eventually. Although, it goes without saying, that I do not currently have a 1000 acres or know if I will ever be able to get that......lots of money for that laid out. Brandon stated earlier in this thread that too many are getting on board in the registered game. They may have to make a new elite formula of registration that has to be more scrutinized than just registering.

So are you telling me I cannot make money buying surrogate angus cows and buying higher dollar embryos placed by and embryologist. Are you telling me if my calves come out as hot progeny that I cannot make money off of them?? ]

I am just as inexperienced as you and so cannot give you an experienced answer.
That said, There is a lot about your premise that I find troubling.

How much control do you have over the following.....

"If my calves come out as hot progeny" ?

1. Gosh, If it is that easy why isn't everyone here doing it? Heck, why am I buying land, saving up and buying cattle a couple at a time trying to build a quality commercial herd. Easy money to be had without owning land, equipment, fencing, barns. I'm ready!!

2. Are there folks running around the country waving $5000 begging for these calves? How do you find them? Marketing Costs? You have to convince someone that the cow is worth that kind of money.

3. Why are these folks selling Embryos for $500 (at considerable cost to produce and Market) when all they need is a surrogate cow, a neighbor that will be happy to board her for a few bucks and a little time to get $5000?

I strongly suspect that the real value of a $500.00 embryo is to the person that is working hard to build a strong herd for commercial business purposes.

A few may get lucky but most of us have to remember that "There is no such thing as a free lunch"

Jon

[/u]

 

[OhioRiver]

I do believe you when you say part time. I am supposed to be involved in an AI class soon and participate in live births in Feb and Mar with the farm I have been talking with about this. It would be a deal of something like a percentage deal if we did it that way. I would not want it to be that way long term, but it does let me get my feet wet and allow me the chance to succeed or fail and learn from it. I will not buy a $50k anything. I will buy two cows and see if I can do any ET work with this guy and see if I fail at that. I will make tons of notes along the way and hopefully in five or six years have some of my kinks worked out and a little land and see where that takes me. Unpredictable things bite us all and I do not think that I am protected from being harmed by any one of the things that could go wrong. I may not have worked on a farm per se like some gents on here but that does not mean I am stupid or anything like that. If I fail. I fail.

I think we passed somewhere on the interstate and missed the connection.
The point I was trying to make is
In any business forcasting is good. BUT...
with cattle forcasting only works to a point. Cows unlike the restraunt business, marketing, computers or what have you,
are alive. They are living breathing creatures and what you plan almost never turns out like you thought it would.
No amount of planning is going to give you the results...let me rephrase that...things are not always what they seem. The end result might get you near to where you want to go, it's the in between that changes. It's how you get there that no amount of forcasting will prepare you for.

I suggested to work on a farm maybe not full time (should have made that clear) but maybe when a guy down the road needs help during different stages of the farm so you know what you are getting into.
Are you going to buy a restraunt without knowing the dynamics of the business? You learn by first taking on job or two in the business so you can minimize the risk.
If we, in our area, were to buy cows and "dump" them on another farm for them to raise, they pay the feed, the mineral, the expense of the infrastucture, we would get depending on the agreement between 20 and 25%. Maybe thirty if we provided the drugs for treatments and vaccinations and helped out once in a while.
We just finished a deal with a guy to look after his animals year round. When he owned his land we gave 50% of the gross sales to him. When we bought his land he got 25% and he paid for major heath concerns. If they needed vaccinations or a shot here and there of LA200 we covered the cost. Anything more than that he paid. Served us well. Served him well. but he never got rich or was able to make his house payment on this.

 

[OhioRiver]

USDA has done too good of a job- ensuring that there is a cheap source of food for our citizens- now they expect it.


OH MY GOD IS THAT SO TRUE OR WHAT............

 

[Brandonm2]

thank you for telling me that....I am getting some of the facts I need to consider. You are right about more and more cows and bulls being registered. How do you differentiate it then. Will they make a new higher class above registered. I can only see that coming to stave off mediocrity in the registered breed.

They are not going to rock the boat. The breed association makes it's money selling registrations. 350,000 X $9 (the price for 4-10 month old calves) is $3.15 million and half those calves were AI babies so 165,000 x $10 (what the assn charges for A.I. certificates) is $1.65 million. ET calves are another $10/hd. Transfering ownership is another $5/hd and record keeping on your registered cow is $3 per head per year and you will have to pay $30 a year to be a member of the Angus assn. It is up to the breeders to fight off mediocrity.

 

[Howdyjabo]

There are no tiers in registries- the bottom just disappears(quit registering) as the top gets better.

the cream(with lots of money and salesmanship behind them) will always demand a higher to extreme value -- that won't change.

as the market saturates the good Reg cows/bulls will be worth a little more than a good commercial cow/bull.

As the market is saturated the ok- level becomes the commercial cow. with a commercial cow value.
The "papers" have little/no value- on an ok cow(bull) when the market is saturated.


When the market saturates Papers are not worth anything-- its the animal/performance/marketing that will determine the value- the papers just back that up.

 

[Syd Sydney]

thank the lord....I could not afford to take that large of a pay cut for sure. no nobility in poverty.

BTW I believe you about the no credibility in the game thing.



BTW most people would never even consider hiring you as a hired hand so no need to worry about quitting your job to do that :lol: :lol: :lol: .

[/quote]

The credibility statement was nothing to do with you as an individual .It is just that you are going to have a heck of a time convincing a veteran producer to spend any money on your (a newcomer with no cattle or breed knowledge) livestock,no matter how impressive they may be .The reason that people do make money in this business has a lot to do with integrity and reputation;and it takes years to develop that.

 

[OhioRiver]

How does someone new win then or is it just hopeless.

thank you for telling me that....I am getting some of the facts I need to consider. You are right about more and more cows and bulls being registered. How do you differentiate it then. Will they make a new higher class above registered. I can only see that coming to stave off mediocrity in the registered breed.

They are not going to rock the boat. The breed association makes it's money selling registrations. 350,000 X $9 (the price for 4-10 month old calves) is $3.15 million and half those calves were AI babies so 165,000 x $10 (what the assn charges for A.I. certificates) is $1.65 million. ET calves are another $10/hd. Transfering ownership is another $5/hd and record keeping on your registered cow is $3 per head per year and you will have to pay $30 a year to be a member of the Angus assn. It is up to the breeders to fight off mediocrity.