Profit from cattle?? Where is it?

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is this because it was in November and that is the time of year when prices are the flatest.



Brandonm2":108l3wxc said:
The market grades them. When there is great demand they bring great price. As supply increases price decreases. I was at an Angus sale just this weekend. This time it was the Alabama Angus Assn Fall Sale.

The top selling cow was a 5 year old New Design 1407 daughter out of a Precision 1680 cow with a bull calf. A good cow that was originally bought at Gardiner's. She brought $3900.

The #2 cow was a heavy bred 6 year old JLB Exacto 416 daughter out a Traveler cow. She brought $3600. Her February GAR Solution daughter brought $1900 for a combined lot price of $5500.

The top selling bull was an 18 month old GAR Retail Product sired bull, who had EXT and Precision 1680 on both the top and bottom of his pedigree. His $B was 53.6. He brought $2750.

The #3 cow was an Emblazon daughter out of an EXT cow with a Predestined calf. She brought $2600.

A similarly bred cow with a Sitz Alliance 6595 heifer calf brought $2500.

A BAR EXT Traveler 205 cow with a Mytty In Focus heifer also brought $2500.

An 878 grand daughter with an otherwise all Alabama pedigree and a GAR Solution heifer also brought $2500.

A SAF Strategy 9015 daughter with a Boyd New Day heifer also brought $2500.

A 4 year old Millcreek Diversity daughter out of a SAF 598 Bando 5175 cow with a GAR Retail Product bull calf brought $2500.

A 7 year old New Design 036 daughter with a heifer calf brought $2400.

Everything else brought less than $2000....all the way down to a 14 month old Boyd New Day 8005 bull (+37.96 $B) the stockyard bought for $800.
 
OhioRiver":1jausxi9 said:
is this because it was in November and that is the time of year when prices are the flatest.

THAT is part of it, undoubtedly. That Alabama is in the grips of a drought is part of it. Frost came early in North and Central Alabama this year and that didn't help either. Scheduling an Angus sale opposite Louisville probably was not a very bright idea either. THE biggest part of it is that there were 350,000 Angus registered last year and over half of those were AI calves. Supply is outstripping demand.
 
how do I combat this or is it doomed for me to think I start a farm with no name and only embryos that have pedigree?



Brandonm2":2i5foizo said:
THE biggest part of it is that there were 350,000 Angus registered last year and over half of those were AI calves. Supply is outstripping demand.
 
OhioRiver":1o5oy2f7 said:
how do I combat this or is it doomed for me to think I start a farm with no name and only embryos that have pedigree?

This was already answered once...by somebody more thoughtful than me. All things are possible if you make the right decisions and are willing (and capable) of investing the time and the work into it. A lot also depends on how you define success and failure. If failure is anything less than being an elite donor program that nets six digits in income year in and year out you are much more likely to be disappointed than a guy who can "LIVE WITH" a modest commercial bull biz and a brisk female biz that has more to do with the popularity of the AI sire used than the herd prefix in the front of the calf's name. Never accept mediocrity; BUT realize that sometimes the market is just not going to see the potential in a flush that you see.
 
Brandonm2":1ke2jry9 said:
THAT is part of it, undoubtedly. That Alabama is in the grips of a drought is part of it. Frost came early in North and Central Alabama this year and that didn't help either. Scheduling an Angus sale opposite Louisville probably was not a very bright idea either. THE biggest part of it is that there were 350,000 Angus registered last year and over half of those were AI calves. Supply is outstripping demand.

Supply something with ear and they'd sell like hotcakes here in Texas. We sold way too many good cows in the '05 and '06 droughts. F-1 producers should make a lot of nickels in the next few years.
 
well stated


Brandonm2":30aljimy said:
OhioRiver":30aljimy said:
how do I combat this or is it doomed for me to think I start a farm with no name and only embryos that have pedigree?

This was already answered once...by somebody more thoughtful than me. All things are possible if you make the right decisions and are willing (and capable) of investing the time and the work into it. A lot also depends on how you define success and failure. If failure is anything less than being an elite donor program that nets six digits in income year in and year out you are much more likely to be disappointed than a guy who can "LIVE WITH" a modest commercial bull biz and a brisk female biz that has more to do with the popularity of the AI sire used than the herd prefix in the front of the calf's name. Never accept mediocrity; BUT realize that sometimes the market is just not going to see the potential in a flush that you see.
 
OhioRiver":t83647xb said:
I don't know who would do that year in and year out clearly.............I am wondering if the Angus frenzy is coming off of its high perhaps. I want to get into this but have my reservations I must say if so many are not making money. I wonder if the risk of the embryo transplant into surrogates can pay good dividends or lose all your money??



Frankie":t83647xb said:
OhioRiver":t83647xb said:
Why is the board so doom and gloom on making any money in the beef business or the donor business? If everyone is losing money just stop and do something else? Why would someone continue to lose money year in and year out and say they are good at something?

I don't think everyone is doom and gloom on making money in the beef business. Prices have been wonderful the last few years. If someone couldn't at least break even with prices like they've been, they're in serious trouble.

We've managed to make money with our Angus without buying a high dollar donor cow. Maybe we could have made more if we'd spent $100,000 on a cow, but I doubt it. Marketing is still the key to making your money back on any cow. If you know people willing to consistently, year after year, pay $5 - 10,000 for a heifer, good for you.

I cant answer for anyone but myself, I truly enjoy playing in the cattle business, plus I have a 4 year old son that I feel will benefit from the life experieces working a farm/ranch will bring, I say playing because I do not make my living farming because family farming is a difficult business for going farms much less start-ups. My son seems to enjoy the chores associated especialy riding the tractors and this will hopefully give he and I something when those teen years hit......Just my opinion of why some stay in even if they are barely making it, as another post said, "it's a love of the life"
 
This has been one really entertaining post to read through. Ill give a little advice as well

Don't try to make a lot of money at one time. Try to make a little money a lot of the time. High priced cattle can make you some good money for a while but they can also lose some even bigger money.

I ain't in the cattle business. I'm in the money business. I just use the cattle to make money.Yea, I make money on cattle. I make more money in other adventures. Cattle are not the most profitable place to tie your money up. While you are looking over that nice herd of cows you should be thinking how much they are worth. If you can make more with that money elsewhere you are invested in the wrong place.
 
Bama":14nz9hc1 said:
This has been one really entertaining post to read through.

I second that

While you are looking over that nice herd of cows you should be thinking how much they are worth.

Yeah, but here's a story I heard that'll give you a shocker: There was this fella that had been in the cattle biz for a long time, and decided to get out because he was gettin a bit old for it. A herd of purebred registered cattle (I don't know what breed), were to be sold. And you know what they were sold as?

Slaughter cows. Yep, a herd of 100+ registered purebred cows sold as slaughter cows. If you do the math, he only got about $50 000 for the whole herd.

And this is a true story. I don't know the fella, just heard it through hear-say from a visit to some kin of mine.

So just as you think of getting in, you have to think about what your gonna get when you decide to get out.
 
IluvABbeef wrote:

There was this fella that had been in the cattle biz for a long time, and decided to get out because he was gettin a bit old for it. A herd of purebred registered cattle (I don't know what breed), were to be sold. And you know what they were sold as?

I heard that too and the guy said he had the best charolais herd in the country on the interview I saw.
He was upset because the buyer "stole" his cows.
There has to be more to the story because if he had a herd like he claimed a dispersal sale would have brought buyers.
:?
 
My husband told me years ago that the profit in Ag was in someone else in Ag going broke and picking up their stuff for pennies on the dollar and doing something constructive with it..

Basically you make money cause they lost money..........
 
rockridgecattle":75nf5yzk said:
might have been more to the story but here bred cows are bringing maybe $200.00 pure brd or not. No one is buying. Alot want out.

Yeah I guess that's why the herd sold as slaughter cows...no body wanted them, there were no buyers so they just sold them to the butcher.
 
IluvABbeef":wxtr4v9y said:
rockridgecattle":wxtr4v9y said:
might have been more to the story but here bred cows are bringing maybe $200.00 pure brd or not. No one is buying. Alot want out.

Yeah I guess that's why the herd sold as slaughter cows...no body wanted them, there were no buyers so they just sold them to the butcher.

Breeding cattle are like land, real estate, even stocks. They are NOT a liquid investment. You don't go out when you want to get out you have to wait for when the market will LET you get out. Otherwise you have to be prepared to sit and hold. That guy PROBABLY could have gotten a $1000 a cow (or the inflation adjusted equivalent to 2007 dollars) IF he had a better marketing plan and took the time to wait on the buyer.
 
Breeding cattle are like land, real estate, even stocks. They are NOT a liquid investment. You don't go out when you want to get out you have to wait for when the market will LET you get out. Otherwise you have to be prepared to sit and hold. That guy PROBABLY could have gotten a $1000 a cow (or the inflation adjusted equivalent to 2007 dollars) IF he had a better marketing plan and took the time to wait on the buyer.[/quote]

This is why I'm feeding 16 "sellable" calves through the winter. Coming out of a 2 year drought was more than a lot of local farmers could bear, and the sale barn was cram packed with local stock. I decided to gamble and looked at the long range "expected " winter forcast, a la-nina winter, hopefully mild. Maybe my gamble will pay off in the spring, if not, lesson learned and i'll move on.
 
It will pay off. You only have to go as far as the traditional stock models for cattle prices. Too many people are using the forage feed and sell when it leaves method. The supply is quadruple what it should be in Oct/Nov. The new guys should target selling in May June to offset that. Hell, it is easy to buy at these low prices it seems if the market will take your product 6 months from now. I think you can win that way. The cattle sale model needs to balance out and will only do so if all the guys stop dumping their cattle at the same time. They just don't get it. I don't get them. It is like the stock market in that aspect.......buy low sell high. When two people want the same thing the price is increased by the others need as well..........when you have two cows and one buyer that wants just one. Someone takes their cow back. The problem is the people are not choosing to take their cow back. They are IN NEED of anything and take a dump price and then bitch about it. I think the sustainability question is very good here. Can you afford to play the game? If not, you would be wise expending your time and funds in another environment. If you do not know anything else then that is your fault not the cattle market.....adapt to change or it will change you.



TREY-L":2dir42xg said:
Breeding cattle are like land, real estate, even stocks. They are NOT a liquid investment. You don't go out when you want to get out you have to wait for when the market will LET you get out. Otherwise you have to be prepared to sit and hold. That guy PROBABLY could have gotten a $1000 a cow (or the inflation adjusted equivalent to 2007 dollars) IF he had a better marketing plan and took the time to wait on the buyer.

This is why I'm feeding 16 "sellable" calves through the winter. Coming out of a 2 year drought was more than a lot of local farmers could bear, and the sale barn was cram packed with local stock. I decided to gamble and looked at the long range "expected " winter forcast, a la-nina winter, hopefully mild. Maybe my gamble will pay off in the spring, if not, lesson learned and i'll move on.[/quote]
 
OhioRiver":27let5i0 said:
It will pay off. You only have to go as far as the traditional stock models for cattle prices. Too many people are using the forage feed and sell when it leaves method. The supply is quadruple what it should be in Oct/Nov. The new guys should target selling in May June to offset that. be nice, it is easy to buy at these low prices it seems if the market will take your product 6 months from now. I think you can win that way. The cattle sale model needs to balance out and will only do so if all the guys stop dumping their cattle at the same time. They just don't get it. I don't get them. It is like the stock market in that aspect.......buy low sell high. When two people want the same thing the price is increased by the others need as well..........when you have two cows and one buyer that wants just one. Someone takes their cow back. The problem is the people are not choosing to take their cow back. They are IN NEED of anything and take a dump price and then be nice about it. I think the sustainability question is very good here. Can you afford to play the game? If not, you would be wise expending your time and funds in another environment. If you do not know anything else then that is your fault not the cattle market.....adapt to change or it will change you.



TREY-L":27let5i0 said:
Breeding cattle are like land, real estate, even stocks. They are NOT a liquid investment. You don't go out when you want to get out you have to wait for when the market will LET you get out. Otherwise you have to be prepared to sit and hold. That guy PROBABLY could have gotten a $1000 a cow (or the inflation adjusted equivalent to 2007 dollars) IF he had a better marketing plan and took the time to wait on the buyer.

This is why I'm feeding 16 "sellable" calves through the winter. Coming out of a 2 year drought was more than a lot of local farmers could bear, and the sale barn was cram packed with local stock. I decided to gamble and looked at the long range "expected " winter forcast, a la-nina winter, hopefully mild. Maybe my gamble will pay off in the spring, if not, lesson learned and i'll move on.
[/quote]

The problem with the may or june market is the cost of feed to have something saleable at that time. Some parts of the country don;t have the luxury of year round forage. You either have to calf when you have the grass or feed hay. If you have the availble winter forage or the hay to feed over the winter you can hold the calves or calve later in the year. Either way you have to feed growing calves during the most expensive time of the year.
 
What a nice thread. Personally I believe in there being money to be made in cattle. I'm Skeptical of OhioRivers ability to make it. I really like the business background and think it will be very valuable but way to lacking on the cattle side to make it happen. The scale of the operation (2 cows) is way to small any MBA worth his salt knows about the law of large numbers. If you are going to play the game put your cleats on.
 
Brandonm2":2k58mikn said:
IluvABbeef":2k58mikn said:
rockridgecattle":2k58mikn said:
might have been more to the story but here bred cows are bringing maybe $200.00 pure brd or not. No one is buying. Alot want out.

Yeah I guess that's why the herd sold as slaughter cows...no body wanted them, there were no buyers so they just sold them to the butcher.

Breeding cattle are like land, real estate, even stocks. They are NOT a liquid investment. You don't go out when you want to get out you have to wait for when the market will LET you get out. Otherwise you have to be prepared to sit and hold. That guy PROBABLY could have gotten a $1000 a cow (or the inflation adjusted equivalent to 2007 dollars) IF he had a better marketing plan and took the time to wait on the buyer.

Exactly! And I guess we'll never know the REAL reason why the guy sold his herd at the time when the markets are know like they are.
 
I am getting to understand that, but my wife thinks it would fit okay for the future so I am getting behind the notion to start something.


Beef11":d2keaj9u said:
What a nice thread. Personally I believe in there being money to be made in cattle. I'm Skeptical of OhioRivers ability to make it. I really like the business background and think it will be very valuable but way to lacking on the cattle side to make it happen. The scale of the operation (2 cows) is way to small any MBA worth his salt knows about the law of large numbers. If you are going to play the game put your cleats on.
 

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