I can see the confusion I created. I don't buy all my hay. If I buy hay when I'm short it's 5x6 or 6x6 rolls only, much more hay per per bale at pennies on the dollar increase. I roll 4x5's for myself at approx 900 lbs per bale. I keep an avg of 10 per cow calf pair per the old timers heeded warning of rough winter. I may have 3 left over on an avg winter. I'll do the math on an avg winter remember I'm gonna lose hay to being stomped on and pissed and sh!+ on. That's 7 bales per cow calf pair. 4x5's sale for $25 a bale on avg and 5x6's and 6x6's avg $30-40. I say okay quality. I mean roughly 11% protein hay brome, clover, Timothy, orchard, fescue mix. I usually have leftover hay. I have 225 acres to farm and in my area 1 cow to 2 acre ratio. We have several farms in the area feeding over 4000 head and all of them use magical "syrup". Hay ground is easy to come by here rough mostly but free to the cutter. Yup I break stuff but keep my cost of maintenance low doing all my own repairs. Tires and diesel are my biggest expense and yeah I pencil it all in every year. I've been managing farms and cattle for 22 years. I think maybe I might know a little about the process. I'm still some too. If I have a 75% calving year vs an 85% year even with everything else being golden my profit per cow drops 10%. If I avg $180 per cow now I'm at $162 per cow. So now sir or mam. I profit $162 per cow. If I feed 7 bales of hay to said cow at $20 per bale putting it up cost well that's 140 hay cost per cow. Now I need 7 bales to make it to mid April on Greenup. Your argument is I need a sharp pencil, I beg it can be a sharpie marker at that figure if buy 7 bales at $290 a bale OP stated $290 for a 750 lbs bale. Well now $2030 in hay cost and my pencil sharpness helps me make a profit? I can buy 2 heavy bred 6-9's for 2030.00. It's pretty simple stuff.
if I was buying drought hay I'd have to shoot them cows and bury them in a hole with the dozer. Change the #'s how you see fit. If the hay cost 50 per roll at 4x5 size. I now spend 7x50=350 on hay. My profit per cow on a less than ideal year was $162. I added $188 per cow in hay cost. At $50 per bale I lost $26 a head without any other expenses changing. Yes 4000 head operations around here making a profit at 7 bales through winter per cow calf all day with magical syrup that's free. Magical was a good word for it 22% free protein the trucks will deliver it to you for free because they get paid by the load to haul it off as it is a byproduct of alcohol. I'll step away now the math is really truly not gonna lie to you. Around here most feed from 1st of November or December- April 15th sometimes May 1st.