The main advantage of using milk or plasma progesterone concentrations to diagnose pregnancy is that this method allows detection of nonpregnant cows soon after insemination. In particular, cows can be diagnosed not pregnant as early as 21 days after insemination.
There are several disadvantages of using milk or plasma progesterone to diagnose pregnancy. Milk and plasma progesterone samples need to be collected at least two times after insemination. Usually, samples are collected at 21 and 24 days after insemination. If either one of those samples is considered to have low progesterone concentrations, cows are diagnosed as not pregnant. Thus, the use of progesterone tests is a good diagnosis tool to detect nonpregnant cows. If both samples have high progesterone concentrations, however, there is still a certain probability that the cow is not actually pregnant. The reliability of progesterone tests to detect pregnant cows is estimated to be only around 80 %. That means that 20 % of cows diagnosed pregnant by progesterone are, in reality, not pregnant. Here are some reasons why:
Cows do not show estrus exactly every 21 days. A nonpregnant cow can have showed estrus less than 21 days after insemination. This cow may ovulate and form a corpus luteum, which will increase progesterone concentrations. Thus, this nonpregnant cow may be erroneously diagnosed as pregnant.
Cows with reproductive problems such as ovarian cysts or uterine infections also may have two consecutive high progesterone concentrations and be diagnosed as pregnant.
Cows may be pregnant at 21 days after insemination but lose that pregnancy in the next 30 to 40 days. Pregnancy losses in that period may reach up to 30 % according to recent estimates.
Sometimes cows are inseminated when not really in estrus. At 21 days after insemination, these cows will often be in the luteal phase and have high progesterone concentrations, even if not pregnant.