Fertilizer strategies for this year

[SmokinM]

What will be your approach to it with the higher costs this year?

Cut rates but still cover all your acres.

Put down what you need on what you can afford/justify focusing on your best land first.

Skip it altogether and just work with what you have adjusting your herd accordingly.

Right now my plan is to fertilize my best hay land with what it needs ( about 50% of my total hay acres). I sell alot of that hay and have already warned customers of price increases. The rest will probably get passed over this year. Any additional fertilizer money will likely be spent on the pastures at home where the cost is spread over a longer production period on land I own. What am I missing or how should I adjust my plan?

 

[Otha]

I think I may try to buy a little extra hay this winter so I don't have to make as much next year. Then graze the hay acres without increasing cow numbers which should leave me with some more stockpile, so less hay needed next winter. Probably will do a first cutting as the cattle won't be able to keep up with the grass if it's a normal year.

 

[callmefence]

I will fertilize my hayfields as needed. As long as we get adequate rainfall I expect to profit from high fertilizer prices

 

[Otha]

I will fertilize my hayfields as needed. As long as we get adequate rainfall I expect to profit from high fertilizer prices

Can you elaborate on the profit plan?

 

[callmefence]

Can you elaborate on the profit plan?

Supply and demand
You can't get good yields on improved
hayfields without fertilizer in my area.
The increase in fertilizer is high but not as high as yield loss without it.
Hay prices will increase with fertilizer prices. Hay production will decrease as people refuse to buy fertilizer. Pasture will decrease for the same reason. Shortage of grass and hay =even higher hay prices. Why would you want to short your crop when it's going to have it's highest value??.

 

[Stocker Steve]

There is the whole cost of inputs, and #/# fertilizer efficiency, and the value of additional production thing. Been there and done that for current conditions. The math says it is much better for me to buy in hay than to buy in chemical fertilizer... Local results will vary.

Longer term question is what to do with low legume stands??? If you can get poly wire to it - - mob grazing is an option. If you like to play in the dirt - - renovation is an option. I chose to buy a bunch of alfalfa and clover seed before that ran out too.

So mob graze where you can - - then buy in hay for P&K, before planting legumes to pull N out of the air.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Hay prices will increase with fertilizer prices. Hay production will decrease as people refuse to buy fertilizer. Pasture will decrease for the same reason. Shortage of grass and hay =even higher hay prices. Why would you want to short your crop when it's going to have it's highest value??.

Maybe. What is the breakeven hay price to pay for U$S 975 / ton urea?

 

[callmefence]

Maybe. What is the breakeven hay price to pay for U$S 975 / ton urea?

Vs not fertilizing ground your haying.
200 lbs per acre and a modest ton increase in yield.
104.50 per ton.
No credit given for increase in quality.

 

[Otha]

No credit given for increase in quality.

That's the problem we have here. No one test anything so it's just the seller's word on how "good" the hay is. Irrigated stuff is the only thing that seems to get a premium because the buyer assumes it is better hay. Seems this next year it's going to be more important than ever to be sure your putting out the most profitable blend.

 

[daneg]

Moisture to even begin to grow grass will be the wild card for many!

 

[callmefence]

Moisture to even begin to grow grass will be the wild card for many!

I'll take 1000.00 fertilizer over no rain every time.

 

[Dave]

Soil test first and then make decisions. Pasture (rangeland) never does get fertilizer. the only hay comes off irrigated ground. Cattle get fed during the winter on the irrigated hay ground. So a lot of the nutrients from the hay go back to where it came from. The only exception is alfalfa under pivots. But then that alfalfa gets fed on other hay ground. So testing will be more important this year.

 

[gcreekrch]

Same as other years, no purchased fertilizer.

 

[jltrent]

Put fertilizer on the best hay producing ground and hope the other does okay. Also not add any cattle

 

[1982vett]

Doubt I’ll fertilize anything, even though I’m sure the urge to do so will be strong. Old habits are hard to break but it is becoming easier.

 

[SmokinM]

Right now it looks like it could be pushing $200 an acre to fertilize. A similar blend last year was $100 an acre. With production costs figuring an average yield I will [email protected] $55 a roll in it in the field. Will have to do some thinking on that.

A separate but related question is at what level do you find you would have been as well off with nothing? Example: say normal rate is 60-40-60 is a 30-20-30 mix even worth applying?

 

[Josher]

Right now it looks like it could be pushing $200 an acre to fertilize. A similar blend last year was $100 an acre. With production costs figuring an average yield I will [email protected] $55 a roll in it in the field. Will have to do some thinking on that.

A separate but related question is at what level do you find you would have been as well off with nothing? Example: say normal rate is 60-40-60 is a 30-20-30 mix even worth applying?

I’m far too green at this game to give an educated answer but I’m thinking that the half rate might be more usable to the vegetation If we don’t get much rain. Maybe the half rate will be an amount that plants can use and not burn. We’ve had that happen, too much fertilizer plus no rain and hot summer equals burnt hay crop. If u start getting rains then top it up with the other half 🤷🏾‍♂️

 

[Stocker Steve]

Local coop is concerned about getting stuck with high priced inventory and requiring "contracts" for prepay.

Natural gas prices are dropping, so N prices will too once they catch up. Could be some relief in time for fall stockpile...

 

[Stocker Steve]

A separate but related question is at what level do you find you would have been as well off with nothing? Example: say normal rate is 60-40-60 is a 30-20-30 mix even worth applying?

N is usually the most limiting factor for grass systems. So a reduced rate could be 50-0-0-15 with no P&K. IF IT RAINS -- N response is pretty linear. Lots on data on the web for 50/100/150/200 lbs. actual per acre.

P&K are trickier due to availability delays and chemical tie ups. Should consider lime first after soil testing.

In the old days - - lowest cost MN system was beet lime, then turkey litter to meet the P requirement, then a little custom blended chemical N and K to top off the P heavy litter.

All these fertilizer rates are spewed out based on your soil test and your yield goal. For example with chemical fertilizer:
- you may only need only N to hit 2 tons per acre
- you may need more N and plus some P to hit 3 tons per acre
- you may need more N yet and plus more P and also some K to hit 4 tons per acre...

1) TEST
2) Have them run the fertilizer recommendations at several production goals
3) Compare the profitability

 

[Stocker Steve]

Also not add any cattle

When feed prices go up, we need to consider fewer cows gazing longer.

If Dave cannot justify buying bred cows, can we justify not selling some?

I think 2022 will be another big cow cull year due to ongoing drought in the west and rising input prices.