Fall Feeder Prices

[sstterry]

With the decision of China to stop purchasing all US agricultural products what is the consensus of what the impact will be on fall feeder prices?

My thought is that everyone has felt that with the Spring rains and the impact on corn planting, that corn prices would be high and thus feeder prices would be driven down. Now, with no Chinese market for corn, will corn prices be driven lower thus making feeders more attractive to the feedlots?

I do not want this to become political (CB gave me all I wanted last night ). But what does everyone think the impact will be?

 

[Bright Raven]

With the decision of China to stop purchasing all US agricultural products what is the consensus of what the impact will be on fall feeder prices?

My thought is that everyone has felt that with the Spring rains and the impact on corn planting, that corn prices would be high and thus feeder prices would be driven down. Now, with no Chinese market for corn, will corn prices be driven lower thus making feeders more attractive to the feedlots?

I do not want this to become political (CB gave me all I wanted last night ). But what does everyone think the impact will be?

You need to be more clear. The way you worded that first sentence, it sounds like you are saying that China is stopping "all purchases". Don't you mean "new purchases?"

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

With the decision of China to stop purchasing all US agricultural products what is the consensus of what the impact will be on fall feeder prices?

My thought is that everyone has felt that with the Spring rains and the impact on corn planting, that corn prices would be high and thus feeder prices would be driven down. Now, with no Chinese market for corn, will corn prices be driven lower thus making feeders more attractive to the feedlots?

I do not want this to become political (CB gave me all I wanted last night ). But what does everyone think the impact will be?

You need to be more clear. The way you worded that first sentence, it sounds like you are saying that China is stopping "all purchases". Don't you mean "new purchases?"

My understanding is that they are halting all purchases of our Ag products.

 

[Bright Raven]

With the decision of China to stop purchasing all US agricultural products what is the consensus of what the impact will be on fall feeder prices?

My thought is that everyone has felt that with the Spring rains and the impact on corn planting, that corn prices would be high and thus feeder prices would be driven down. Now, with no Chinese market for corn, will corn prices be driven lower thus making feeders more attractive to the feedlots?

I do not want this to become political (CB gave me all I wanted last night ). But what does everyone think the impact will be?

You need to be more clear. The way you worded that first sentence, it sounds like you are saying that China is stopping "all purchases". Don't you mean "new purchases?"

My understanding is that they are halting all purchases of our Ag products.

Yikes.

 

[sstterry]

Yes. TT is correct. Yesterday they announced they are halting all purchases of US agricultural products.

 

[snoopdog]

OK city yesterday reported feeders down .06 to .10, calves down .10 to .16

 

[bird dog]

The drop was more about the processing plant fire and the crop report. Either way it was a big hit with more losses expected today.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

The drop was more about the processing plant fire and the crop report. Either way it was a big hit with more losses expected today.

Sad but true. Gonna be a rough close to 2019 I'm afraid.

 

[DCA farm]

a man could get some heifers cheap these days

 

[bird dog]

To quote Scooby Do....ruh roh

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=FC&p=d1

 

[sstterry]

To quote Scooby Do....ruh roh

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=FC&p=d1

Buckle up it is going to be a bumpy ride!

 

[Stocker Steve]

I don't think China purchases are a huge issue for US beef exports, even though they are a big player in some US byproducts. You could even argue that reduced grain prices (from reduced China demand) are a benefit for US beef producers.

The real issue is that interest rates and stock market and commodities are/were all dropping because many expect the global growth will slow, and perhaps we will go into a recession soon. Then there will be alot less demand for steaks.

So here are my predictions:

China trade issues will be resolved by 2040.
Grain production for 2019 will be less than USDA says.
There will be continued pressure on 2019 feeder prices, and they will be in U$S 130 to 140 range, below most producers breakeven.
This will increase the cow kill, positioning calf prices to start rising in 2021.

 

[bmcdonald]

Lol China Issues Will Be Resolved By 2040

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Lol China Issues Will Be Resolved By 2040

He's always the eternal optimist.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Lol China Issues Will Be Resolved By 2040

He's always the eternal optimist.

The Chinese Commie Party does not need to win an election. All they have to do is keep improving the standard of living so the workers keep working. They have a long term plan to be #1 economy in the world, and as the #1 economy they can spend the most on their military... Where they will source beef tongues and organ meat from is not a concern for the master race.

 

[snoopdog]

Lol China Issues Will Be Resolved By 2040

He's always the eternal optimist.

The Chinese Commie Party does not need to win an election. All they have to do is keep improving the standard of living so the workers keep working. They have a long term plan to be #1 economy in the world, and as the #1 economy they can spend the most on their military... Where they will source beef tongues and organ meat from is not a concern for the master race.

I respectfully disagree with the election comment. Their strategy is to put the hurt on america's farmers, since they overwhelmingly voted for the current administration, in order to get someone else in office that might treat them more favorably. Elementary really.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Sure. the Commies would like Trump to lose in 2020, but either way, they will still be in control when Trump leaves office.

The 2020 election only matters if things get so bad that the Chinese economy quits growing. Hard to have that happen when you control much of the infrastructure and the industry.

Americans are really bad at the long game.

 

[sstterry]

I think that the inverted yield curve and the 800pt drop in the stock market today may have some impact. We are headed toward a recession.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

I think that the inverted yield curve and the 800pt drop in the stock market today may have some impact. We are headed toward a recession.

Yup, the inverted yield curve is never wrong, at SOME point in the future AFTER the inversion we have a recession.

 

[sstterry]

I think that the inverted yield curve and the 800pt drop in the stock market today may have some impact. We are headed toward a recession.

Yup, the inverted yield curve is never wrong, at SOME point in the future AFTER the inversion we have a recession.

That is my understanding. It may be two years or it may be two months but it is coming.