Economic Depression Ahead

[Caustic Burno]

HF posts what he THINKS is going to happen and trys to find charts and graphs that provide support for what he thinks. HF very well could be wrong about what is going to happen. Without knowing what fed money policy, U.S. fiscal policy, the diplomatic/military situation around the world, or the weather is going to be we really are just guessing. If you think that the Obama years will be a great boon to the nation and that stocks, wages, employment, real estate values (if anybody is interested in buying anything they haven't called me since mid Sept), then say that and try to find support for that position. I for one would like to be convinced that we aren't in a severe recession by April and don't see DOW 5000.

The election is over and done with right, wrong, or indifferent. We really haven't had a bad president in this country since Hoover, the real pit of vipers is Congress and their for life membership in the club.

We dug this economic hole we are in on good credit, bad credit no credit come on in.

The chickens have come to roost you borrow you have to pay, then you have CEO's cooking the books paying unreal dividends on stocks to attract investors to keep a bad credit policy afloat.

 

[tom4018]

HF posts what he THINKS is going to happen and trys to find charts and graphs that provide support for what he thinks. HF very well could be wrong about what is going to happen. Without knowing what fed money policy, U.S. fiscal policy, the diplomatic/military situation around the world, or the weather is going to be we really are just guessing. If you think that the Obama years will be a great boon to the nation and that stocks, wages, employment, real estate values (if anybody is interested in buying anything they haven't called me since mid Sept), then say that and try to find support for that position. I for one would like to be convinced that we aren't in a severe recession by April and don't see DOW 5000.

The election is over and done with right, wrong, or indifferent. We really haven't had a bad president in this country since Hoover, the real pit of vipers is Congress and their for life membership in the club.

We dug this economic hole we are in on good credit, bad credit no credit come on in.

The chickens have come to roost you borrow you have to pay, then you have CEO's cooking the books paying unreal dividends on stocks to attract investors to keep a bad credit policy afloat.

Well said CB. :clap: :clap: :clap:

 

[alexfarms]

I don't give a care about what he says. It's the way he says it. Like he's wanting it to happen so he can dance around laughing about being right. Don't be so dam gleeful about it.

And HS, I don't give a crap if you are polite to me or not.

I wrote that in italics so you can read it.

We obviously do not want to go through a depression. The data we study has nothing to do with what we want or need. Bad times are coming. Will probably start with Italy and Spain. Others will try to bail them out similar to Iceland. Watch out for Russia.

My, now, long departed aunt was a history teacher and a student of history all her life. She gave me some great quotes. One of the best, and I think probably truest, was from Harry Truman: "Anyone who lies for you, will lie to you." She also always said that great nations and civilizations have always been destroyed at there own hand and ALWAYS because of imposing oppressive taxes on their citizens. For the last few weeks, while our govt has been borrowing money to pump into this nations private sector on top of all the debt that has been accumulated over the last 30 years, I have had one big question on my mind: How are we gonna pay all this money back?.....taxes.

 

[HerefordSire]

HF posts what he THINKS is going to happen and trys to find charts and graphs that provide support for what he thinks. HF very well could be wrong about what is going to happen. Without knowing what fed money policy, U.S. fiscal policy, the diplomatic/military situation around the world, or the weather is going to be we really are just guessing. If you think that the Obama years will be a great boon to the nation and that stocks, wages, employment, real estate values (if anybody is interested in buying anything they haven't called me since mid Sept), then say that and try to find support for that position. I for one would like to be convinced that we aren't in a severe recession by April and don't see DOW 5000.

It is really very simple when you think about it, not near as complicated as you make it out to be. Most of the 100 year historical charts I study are all sky high. It is normal for these plotted lines to revert to the median. It is like super-gravity. The only think I can see that will prevent this from occuring, is reflation by the central banks around the world. They will do everything in their power to flood the markets with fiat currency to prop up asset values. If you look closely, Japan had their stock bubble in the 90s. The US had our stock bubble in 2000 (dot com era). China had their stock bubble recently. What is happening is the money is being passed around from market to market. Cash is being transferred. When the selling occurs, we look for different markets. All these bubbles are propelled by central banks injecting massive amounts of new currency in the markets. The cash must find a home. One of two things will occur:

(1) Currency injections by global central banks will continue and accelerate thereby increasing the liklihood of currency dilution and hyper-inflation.

(2) Markets will begin crashing around the globe.

The first item above is the liklely scenario. However, there will come a time when our governments will not be able to continue to inject new currency, so therefore, the second item above must happen to return to historic normalcy, or the historic median.

 

[Brandonm22]

It is really very simple when you think about it, not near as complicated as you make it out to be. Most of the 100 year historical charts I study are all sky high. It is normal for these plotted lines to revert to the median.

I am not a chart reader. I am a fundamentals guy. There is no reason that a chart can't go up into infinity IF corps are making money, wages are rising, the economy is growing, disposable income is rising, net wealth is increasing, etc. In a macro-economic sense I can't see any of that happening right now so I can't see why more money would flow into stocks OR real estate than what is going to have to come out to pay people's living expenses, mortgages, debts, etc.

 

[HerefordSire]

It is really very simple when you think about it, not near as complicated as you make it out to be. Most of the 100 year historical charts I study are all sky high. It is normal for these plotted lines to revert to the median.

I am not a chart reader. I am a fundamentals guy. There is no reason that a chart can't go up into infinity IF corps are making money, wages are rising, the economy is growing, disposable income is rising, net wealth is increasing, etc. In a macro-economic sense I can't see any of that happening right now so I can't see why more money would flow into stocks OR real estate than what is going to have to come out to pay people's living expenses, mortgages, debts, etc.

I like Carter Worth's (Oppenheimer) magic on CNBC. He is a great technician. Plus, when he talks, you can hear his confidence.

I like fundamentals also before studying the technicals. In my view, technicals are centered around average price which can be plotted as a line versus time. When the vehicle price is over the average price line, the majority of investors are in the money for that specific time period. Likewise, when the price is below a price moving average, the majority of investors are out of the money. When investors are in the money, they are in a good mood and they are much more likely to buy more sending the price higher...and if they are out of the money, they will help the selling pressure move the price further down. When two moving averages converge and ultimately intersect, price begins to thrust in the direction of the movement. I know all kinds of tricks if you are interested.

 

[HerefordSire]

My, now, long departed aunt was a history teacher and a student of history all her life. She gave me some great quotes. One of the best, and I think probably truest, was from Harry Truman: "Anyone who lies for you, will lie to you." She also always said that great nations and civilizations have always been destroyed at there own hand and ALWAYS because of imposing oppressive taxes on their citizens. For the last few weeks, while our govt has been borrowing money to pump into this nations private sector on top of all the debt that has been accumulated over the last 30 years, I have had one big question on my mind: How are we gonna pay all this money back?.....taxes.


That is a good'un! There are other ways to pay back debt besides taxes. One is exporting more than importing. Another is investment income. The main thing to keep in mind is when our government prints the heck out of new currency, if makes older debt cheaper to pay provided the exchange rates and the interest rates are favorable.