Economic Depression Ahead

[HerefordSire]

I am not sure when but an economic depression, unseen in the history of our existence as human beings, can be deduced by looking at the following photo. Notice the last peak around 1929 close to when the markets topped and then crashed. The coming crash has not even come close yet. The graph is calulated by taking the our total debt and dividing by our total output. It is important you prepare yourself when these events occur. Theoretically, the increasing "debt to output" plotted line can increase as long as we can convince foreign investors and countries to purchase our government securities provided they have the capacity.

 

[Lammie]

Thanks for the good news there, Debbie Downer.

Wait, I'll be right back. I have to bury some money in the back yard. Where's that jar?

 

[HerefordSire]

Laugh all you want Lammie so we can see who gets the last laugh. Check this out:

"Economic activity in the manufacturing sector failed to grow in October for the third consecutive month, and the overall economy concluded 83 consecutive months of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI indicates a significantly faster rate of decline in manufacturing when comparing October to September. It appears that manufacturing is experiencing significant demand destruction as a result of recent events, with members indicating challenges associated with the financial crisis, interruptions from the Gulf hurricane, and the lagging impact from higher oil prices. This is the lowest level for the PMI since September 1982 when it registered 38.8 percent. In this report, we see inflationary pressures dissolving as the Prices Index fell to 37 percent, the lowest since December 2001 when it registered 33.2 percent. Export orders also contracted for the first time following 70 months of growth."

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm

"When adjusted for increases in the U.S. population, last month was "the worst month in the post-World War II era," Michael DiGiovanni, General Motors' (GM) top sales analyst, said in a conference call. "This is clearly a severe, severe recession.""

"Bottom Line: Incoming data are dismal, and will keep the Fed on the road to additional easing. There is room to cut rates further, at least another 25bp, and ongoing liquidity injections point to further swelling of the Fed's balance sheet. But supporting growth in the near term is no longer within the Fed's ability – the baton will be passed back to fiscal stimulus early next year."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/103862-ugly-numbers


http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm

 

[Lammie]

It just annoys me to no friggin end how you seem to delight in forecasting doom. Honest to God, Spock, no one really cares to hear you spread this stuff. With your graphs and your out of context quotes, you really remind me of some kid who never got picked for the team so he sat around wishing that everyone would burst into flames and you had the only extinguisher.

So what if there is a Depression? Would that make you happy, somehow? Beause I gotta share with you that this is how you come off. It is almost like you want something of this magnitude to occur, just so you could say, "I told you so!"

No one likes a know it all. Especially when that know it all seems to be so delighted at the prospect of a Depression. My parents both lived through The Great Depression. I doubt if you can wrap your mind around living in Dustbowl Oklahoma as a tenant farmer. Well, my dad did. I am not going to stand by and listen to you tear down the system that he helped to build up again while you wring your hands in delight.

They only thing I place my trust in is the Lord God Almighty. You are an insignificant little speck of dust. Stop pushing your agenda. I'm just sick to death of it.

 

[bigbull338]

yes we prolly are heading for a bad depression.an the only 1s that will come out are the mega rich.alot of people will lose everything they have before its over.

 

[Jogeephus]

yes we prolly are heading for a bad depression.an the only 1s that will come out are the mega rich.alot of people will lose everything they have before its over.

Not me! I got a plan. If things CHANGE too much, I'll drop beneath the radar with a couple of businesses I have in mind. Never thought it prudent to be an enabler. Going stealth in these cash-only depression-proof businesses would prevent me from assisting the government and its dependants from continuing their self-destructive habits. Kinda a win/win deal for all concerned. :tiphat:

 

[Ryder]

I am not sure when but an economic depression, unseen in the history of our existence as human beings, can be deduced by looking at the following photo. Notice the last peak around 1929 close to when the markets topped and then crashed. The coming crash has not even come close yet. The graph is calulated by taking the our total debt and dividing by our total output. It is important you prepare yourself when these events occur. Theoretically, the increasing "debt to output" plotted line can increase as long as we can convince foreign investors and countries to purchase our government securities provided they have the capacity.

Good chart. There has been ample evidence of a technical analysis nature for a long time to show what was/is coming. It could certainly have been wisely used by the government, bankers, etc. a long time ago to prevent or at least modify what has already happened. Could also have helped a lot of individuals who were in the market with savings, 401's etc.

 

[Caustic Burno]

I am not sure when but an economic depression, unseen in the history of our existence as human beings, can be deduced by looking at the following photo. Notice the last peak around 1929 close to when the markets topped and then crashed. The coming crash has not even come close yet. The graph is calulated by taking the our total debt and dividing by our total output. It is important you prepare yourself when these events occur. Theoretically, the increasing "debt to output" plotted line can increase as long as we can convince foreign investors and countries to purchase our government securities provided they have the capacity.

Good chart. There has been ample evidence of a technical analysis nature for a long time to show what was/is coming. It could certainly have been wisely used by the government, bankers, etc. a long time ago to prevent or at least modify what has already happened. Could also have helped a lot of individuals who were in the market with savings, 401's etc.

Don't worry change is on the way.

 

[dun]

Don't worry change is on the way.

And this is a good thing??????????????????????

 

[grannysoo]

Don't worry change is on the way.

And this is a good thing??????????????????????

:help:

 

[CKC1586]

Don't worry change is on the way.

And this is a good thing??????????????????????

:help:

Oh Boy! :help: , is right!!!! :help: :frowns: :help:

 

[john250]

Don't worry change is on the way.

And this is a good thing??????????????????????

Don't forget HOPE! We can hope we survive.

 

[Chris H]

I appreciate that post, Herefordsire.

I am also like Jo-- I've got a plan.

I also think a lot of people are going to be sorry they are getting what they asked for, check out my new signature line.

 

[Lammie]

I appreciate that post, Herefordsire.

I am also like Jo-- I've got a plan.

I also think a lot of people are going to be sorry they are getting what they asked for, check out my new signature line.

I think the sig line is unpatriotic and a bit too political, if you ask me. But this is America and you have the freedom to speak as you please, unlike other people. We have what we have. Whether you are happy with it or not makes no difference.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Don't worry change is on the way.

And this is a good thing??????????????????????

If you really want to get scared go back and listen to the translated versions of Hitlers speechs on change.

The Third Reich arose in the wake of the loss of land, the heavy reparations, and the perceived national embarrassment imposed through the Treaty of Versailles which ended World War I. Following civil unrest, the worldwide economic depression of the 1930s, the counter-traditionalism of the Weimar period, and the rise of communism in Germany,[citation needed] many voters began turning their support towards the Nazi Party with its promises of strong government, civil peace, radical changes to economic policy and restored national pride. The National Socialist party promised cultural renewal based on traditionalism, and it proposed military rearmament in opposition to the Treaty of Versailles;

 

[HerefordSire]

I am going to be polite to you and respect you just like I do 3waycross:

It just annoys me to no friggin end how you seem to delight in forecasting doom. Honest to God, Spock, no one really cares to hear you spread this stuff. With your graphs and your out of context quotes, you really remind me of some kid who never got picked for the team so he sat around wishing that everyone would burst into flames and you had the only extinguisher.

When highly recruited for teams, probably the most noteworthy was losing to Alabama in the Sugar Bowl when they became NCAA national champs. I was taught to be mentally tough, you know...when we get the green feeling (nauseated) and you have to keep going because we cannot give up for whatever reason?

So what if there is a Depression? Would that make you happy, somehow? Beause I gotta share with you that this is how you come off. It is almost like you want something of this magnitude to occur, just so you could say, "I told you so!"

If there is an economic depression, you will have no excuse to go hungry as you can only blame yourself and noone else. Most of the terrible teachers I had growing up I ended up respecting because they made me responsible for my actions and thoughts many times.

No one likes a know it all. Especially when that know it all seems to be so delighted at the prospect of a Depression. My parents both lived through The Great Depression. I doubt if you can wrap your mind around living in Dustbowl Oklahoma as a tenant farmer. Well, my dad did. I am not going to stand by and listen to you tear down the system that he helped to build up again while you wring your hands in delight.

I watched a special on television the other night about the dust bowl. It was definitely eye opening. There is nothing about your "system" that I can "tear" down as it is out of my control, such as, I can't move these markets in question. However, I can help you and your family be prepared, maybe unlike your dad's family. There are several things in our control if these events take place and there will be no excuse to not protect and safeguard our families.

They only thing I place my trust in is the Lord God Almighty. You are an insignificant little speck of dust. Stop pushing your agenda. I'm just sick to death of it.

Bless your heart.

 

[HerefordSire]

yes we prolly are heading for a bad depression.an the only 1s that will come out are the mega rich.alot of people will lose everything they have before its over.

Our government will try to prolong the inevitable by feeding the system with new fiat currency. This can go on indefinitely and the depression may not occur in our lifetime.

 

[HerefordSire]

yes we prolly are heading for a bad depression.an the only 1s that will come out are the mega rich.alot of people will lose everything they have before its over.

Not me! I got a plan. If things CHANGE too much, I'll drop beneath the radar with a couple of businesses I have in mind. Never thought it prudent to be an enabler. Going stealth in these cash-only depression-proof businesses would prevent me from assisting the government and its dependants from continuing their self-destructive habits. Kinda a win/win deal for all concerned. :tiphat:

I would be interested in hearing about the couple of businesses you have in mind.

 

[HerefordSire]

Good chart. There has been ample evidence of a technical analysis nature for a long time to show what was/is coming. It could certainly have been wisely used by the government, bankers, etc. a long time ago to prevent or at least modify what has already happened. Could also have helped a lot of individuals who were in the market with savings, 401's etc.


TY. I never replied to your post the other day but I was wanting to. I studied the K-Wave and the Long Wave for years. It is nice to know someone sees what I see.

For those who do not know what the K-Wave is:

"With four distinct phases in the K-wave a number of analysts have compared them to the seasons. Spring (inflationary growth, expansion), summer (stagflation, recession), autumn (deflationary growth, plateau) and winter (depression)."

"The Winter of the K-wave is a dangerous period. But it will be eased for those holding gold or gold stocks. That new bull market is still in its infancy and may yet face a significant shakeout to make its final bottom. But we would all be wise to hold at least a little gold. The winter of the K-wave is upon us. See Cliff Droke's theory on a 2008 to 2014 "hard winter"."

http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm

 

[Brandonm22]

I agree that Herf can be annoying; but he is NOT alone in his technical analysis. It took about $2 trillion federal dollars (the bailout plus treasury lending) to keep us from having a pre-election bank meltdown and we still lost Bear, Lehman, WAMU, Indiemac, Freddie, Fannie, and pretty much AIG and Wachovia. Americans bought 17 million new autos ~3 years ago.....we are likely to finish 2008 purchasing only 11 million and 2009 is forecast to be worse. Mastercard and Federal Express both posted losses which (given the interest rates they charge) can only mean that the citizenry is too poor to pay their bills, which gives me little hope for a recovery in housing where most of the builders are on the verge of bankruptcy. It is a lot worse in the Ukraine, Belarus, Argentina (the nitwhit they elected is worsening that situation by the day), and Turkey. Everybody else is feeling the effects to one degree or another. Even the Chinese economy is slowing some. I am not ready too jump on the depression band wagon; but I don't believe that the stock market hit bottom at 8400 and we haven't felt the effects of all these layoffs yet on corporate profits. 2009 is going to be a very bad year. Is it going to be a 1929??? I don't think so; but I think there are few left alive who will remember a worse year economically