drought over?
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Dusty Britches
Well-known member
First - the drought is not over. Farmers Almanac is predicting that the rain will stop in May and we will be dry in June to August/ September. Climatologists also say we are in the middle of a 15-20 year drought.
I would expect to say hay prices to be similar to last year, b/c the people who failed to buy extra when the price was low will try to stockpile this year.
I'm trying to buy a guy's first cutting, but I think other customers have beat me to it. Last fall, he said he thought the price would be the same.
I would expect to say hay prices to be similar to last year, b/c the people who failed to buy extra when the price was low will try to stockpile this year.
I'm trying to buy a guy's first cutting, but I think other customers have beat me to it. Last fall, he said he thought the price would be the same.
I hope you're wrong about the drought!! The lakes are almost full again, so I thought it was over.
I'm trying to decide whether I should make an investment in my hay meadow, or whether the time for making money off of hay is over...
I'm trying to decide whether I should make an investment in my hay meadow, or whether the time for making money off of hay is over...
pbnewbie":a7gxj25x said:
Full alke, ponds and rivers isn;t a sign of an end to a drought. It just means that you're getting moisture. It takes a lot of years to recover from any drought. The longer the drought lasted the longer it takes for the recovery.
dun
Well, I've heard it said that with water and grass any idiot can be a farmer (I did NOT say it
So, with me being new at this, it seems like the risks this year are much less than last year. Just trying to decide when it's best to get cattle, whether I should throw money at the hay meadow, etc. If I invest several thousand dollars in renovating the hay meadow, I'd like to be certain that it won't be money thrown down the drain.
So, with me being new at this, it seems like the risks this year are much less than last year. Just trying to decide when it's best to get cattle, whether I should throw money at the hay meadow, etc. If I invest several thousand dollars in renovating the hay meadow, I'd like to be certain that it won't be money thrown down the drain.pbnewbie":3ut2zgfb said:
That's alwasy the gamble. Rain is what makes a farmer look like a genius or a fool. If I could predict drought and rainfall I'ld put some of that money in Vegas.
A couple pf years ago, after 3 years of drought we got 15 inches in January and folks started crowing about all the grass and the drought was broken. A lot of people went out and bought more cows based on that premis. We didn;t get any rain again until August. The pastures are still trying to recover from the overgrazing that was created by that situation
dun
Dusty Britches
Well-known member
well, pbnewbie, that depends on how tall the grass is at cutting, how dense it is, how big your bales are, etc. I don't produce my own hay, but I'm sure someone will chime in and tell you.
Thanks, Dusty Britches
ACK, it's like swimmin' in muddy water. Any and all guesses would be appreciated. The grass seems to be probably boot high, maybe more. I haven't actually been out in the hay meadow, but everywhere else on the ranch it's about that high, whether it's grass or forb...
ACK, it's like swimmin' in muddy water. Any and all guesses would be appreciated. The grass seems to be probably boot high, maybe more. I haven't actually been out in the hay meadow, but everywhere else on the ranch it's about that high, whether it's grass or forb...
MillIronQH
Well-known member
I'll say the drought is over when the tank in my bottom pasture is filled back up. It is spring fed and recieves almost zero runoff. It won't fill up until the water table is up where it should be. I don't think that will happen this year. As for the economic impact I think CB put it a 5-10 years and I say that's pretty close.
If I was going to get back in the cow business this isn't the year I'd do it in. IMO you're better off putting your money in the hayfields.Z
If I was going to get back in the cow business this isn't the year I'd do it in. IMO you're better off putting your money in the hayfields.Z
I've found that calculated risks can be rewarded handsomely in most ventures. Many producers, both big and small, liquidated their heards last year. Today, demand is up as are prices.
Clearly the rain could stop falling, but striking while the iron is hot could yield better than average returns. As alway, procede with caution. Regards
Clearly the rain could stop falling, but striking while the iron is hot could yield better than average returns. As alway, procede with caution. Regards
MillIronQH
Well-known member
You just added to the equation. Good fences and good pasture/hayfields will help keep your operating cost down when you do get cattle in.Zpbnewbie":34gyai84 said:
ebrown512
Well-known member
Well in my part of the world it's as over as it can possibly be at this point....by that I mean the need for more rain has not been an issue for the last 90 days...got 3+ more inches this week....now what happens in 60 to 90 days who knows.
As far as hay goes, again in my little area, it is drastically different this year. Last year had to buy hay, some alfalfa trucked in and some crappy hay out of Houston, because we only got one very poor cutting.
This year already had one good cutting of rye with another guaranteed to follow. Sudan is up and enough moisture and fetilizer to guarantee first cutting, so I would not pay near what I paid last year. Turned a neighbor down who offered good oat hay at 60 a bale, when last year I would have paid more than that, and counted myself lucky to get it.
As far as hay goes, again in my little area, it is drastically different this year. Last year had to buy hay, some alfalfa trucked in and some crappy hay out of Houston, because we only got one very poor cutting.
This year already had one good cutting of rye with another guaranteed to follow. Sudan is up and enough moisture and fetilizer to guarantee first cutting, so I would not pay near what I paid last year. Turned a neighbor down who offered good oat hay at 60 a bale, when last year I would have paid more than that, and counted myself lucky to get it.
dcara
Well-known member
Common is the least productive of the bermudas. That being said, one of my neighbors has a great 10ac or so stand of it along a creekbed in a 70ac pasture. It seems to crowd out everything else along that creek bed. In last years drought he got one cutting of about 5 rolls off that bermuda. In 2004 ( a wet year) he got 3 cuttings of 25 rolls each cutting from that same bermuda.
Cool. Thanks for all the information.
I'm going to invest in the hay meadow simply because it's something I think I can do for income even when I'm an old lady. I can always hire someone to cut it and then sell it myself.
I'm going to invest in the hay meadow simply because it's something I think I can do for income even when I'm an old lady. I can always hire someone to cut it and then sell it myself.
pbnewbie":1pk9lx8b said:Well, I've heard it said that with water and grass any idiot can be a farmer (I did NOT say it
Bottom line is that there are no certainies with cattle or farming. As the old saying goes - good judgement comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgement.
pbnewbie":27hxoqci said:
Dun was the first person I'd ever heard 'say' it - since then I've seen it in a few other places, as well. Another of his saying's (sp?) that fits very nicely with cattle, farming, and quite a few other things, as well, is - and I'm paraphrasing here - 'don't start vast plans with half-vast ideas.' Seeing as how you're a beginner by your own admission, you would do well to listen to what dun has to say. Just a little friendly advice - solicited or not. ;-)
Don't worry. I'm listening to a lot of people. I may be a beginner, but I'm pretty astute. I'm still working on getting the infrastructure finished on the ranch before I put on cattle - if I decide to put on cattle. I might just do hay and call it a day. That's why I'm on this forum, though, is to listen to what you guys say and learn.
For my husband, this was his love and his passion. For me, it's gotta be a business because it's very hard work! I'm finding that no matter how I want to continue on with what our plans were, I have to modify them for me so that I can handle it.
For my husband, this was his love and his passion. For me, it's gotta be a business because it's very hard work! I'm finding that no matter how I want to continue on with what our plans were, I have to modify them for me so that I can handle it.
