Deep thinking on future of cattle

[cowboy43]

With cattle prices dropping like a rock along with the economy and it may take years to recover especially cattle, do you find yourself not spending money for what you had budgeted for, like fertilizer, equipment , cattle Or whatever. I sure have taken a look at the future and have done some deep thinking . When cattle are at a low and boxed beef is at a record high something is wrong.
I try to never get myself over my head in debt, but some have and can never sell out to pay what they owe, much less meet operating expenses.
Bankruptcies are at a 8 year high , now this happens. Just my :2cents:

 

[Bestoutwest]

What we really need is a producer/rancher owned co-op. It's the best way to control the price. I wish I knew anything about that industry b/c I'd jump in feet first. All I know is that if you've got the money, this will probably be a great year to buy some good genetics.

 

[SBMF 2015]

My best friend's uncle is an Ag lender. He said when the dust settles 1/3 of the cattle producers in the U.S. will be bankrupt.
Remind me again why us young guys are trying so hard to get started?
I think it's because I have a seven year old son that says he wants to share in the family farm some day! I just hope I can fight through the bad years so he can see some good ones.

 

[callmefence]

The ones that survive ( with the exception of the real ranchers) will be the ones that can think past cattle and look at making a living off their land, equipment and their skills. The things that go with raising beef cross over into many other sources of income..it requires something most people won't do.. work...

 

[Caustic Burno]

The ones that survive ( with the exception of the real ranchers) will be the ones that can think past cattle and look at making a living off their land, equipment and their skills. The things that go with raising beef cross over into many other sources of income..it requires something most people won't do.. work...

I attended a TAMU workshop several years back and their predictions were we would be extinct by 2035.
Beef being predicted to go the way of chicken and pork.

 

[callmefence]

The ones that survive ( with the exception of the real ranchers) will be the ones that can think past cattle and look at making a living off their land, equipment and their skills. The things that go with raising beef cross over into many other sources of income..it requires something most people won't do.. work...

I attended a TAMU workshop several years back and their predictions were we would be extinct by 2035.
Beef being predicted to go the way of chicken and pork.

I can see that.
Why wouldn't it?
The future in ranching is right before out eyes. Most are just to proud to see it.

 

[MurraysMutts]

I've only been at this a short time compared to most. City born and raised. Aside from my grandads stories of ranch life and horse back riding, I knew nothing.
He was around to see the transition from horses to cars going mainstream. His tales are what drew me to this in a way I reckon. A simpler life. Simpler times.

I've tried not to get myself burdened with so much debt that I cant get out. That being said, there is more debt than I would like. Not life threatening debt, but debt, nonetheless. I sure dont like the way things are heading. It is a bit scary. Faith hope and love for what we do can only take a guy so far. I work hard for what we have. Only have a 8n tractor. Enough head of cattle to keep the place stocked. An old useable 4 wheeler. And an even older farm truck for hauling hay and doing chores. AND IM PROUD OF IT ALL! It wasnt free. I worked for it.

My hopes are that once this settles down, things will go back to somewhat normal. How long is that gonna take? Who knows. Just hope I can still carry the torch....

 

[Caustic Burno]

I've only been at this a short time compared to most. City born and raised. Aside from my grandads stories of ranch life and horse back riding, I knew nothing.
He was around to see the transition from horses to cars going mainstream. His tales are what drew me to this in a way I reckon. A simpler life. Simpler times.

I've tried not to get myself burdened with so much debt that I cant get out. That being said, there is more debt than I would like. Not life threatening debt, but debt, nonetheless. I sure dont like the way things are heading. It is a bit scary. Faith hope and love for what we do can only take a guy so far. I work hard for what we have. Only have a 8n tractor. Enough head of cattle to keep the place stocked. An old useable 4 wheeler. And an even older farm truck for hauling hay and doing chores. AND IM PROUD OF IT ALL! It wasnt free. I worked for it.

My hopes are that once this settles down, things will go back to somewhat normal. How long is that gonna take? Who knows. Just hope I can still carry the torch....

This was the workshop I was referring too. Has some interesting thoughts and comments. Looking back TAMU had a pretty good crystal ball.

https://cattletoday.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=98180

 

[Nesikep]

We're stocking up on essentials to keep the place running, fuel while it's cheap, etc... (no, not hoarding TP).. we have older, fixable equipment, a lot of it doesn't have a lot of hours so it'll last a long time

 

[1982vett]

Managed to get rid of a bunch at decent prices about a month ago. Had about 20 fall calves that I had planned to sell mid March and got that done. Luckily I saw the increased demand for fat cows and jumped at he chance to cash in on some older cows. Was actually preparing for a possible dry spring and summer. So far I'm not exactly right about spring but still haven't had run off rain.

Any way...with that cut I'll also cut the fertilizer I had planned to use this spring. I've closed the gates on a few pastures and will cut hay off what the cows don't need. Not much in the way of equipment I need, if what I have sets idle their won't be much in the way of repairs...other supplies will be only necessary things. Second half of the year plan depends on what happens in the first half but it's not likely to involve much in the way of a monetary investment at this point.

 

[Lucky]

Cmon guys it's not all gloom and doom. From what I can see the guys that always say they can't make money are still saying they can't make money and the ones that do make money are saying....well they never really say anything. Honestly if things went like chickens and hogs it would be better for most guys. What fence said above is very true.

How much does a 550-600 pound weaning size calve need to sell for to be profitable? It'd be nice to know what most guys need to be profitable. Things will turn around like they always do. Just gotta tough it out.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

For me? $1,250.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Cmon guys it's not all gloom and doom. From what I can see the guys that always say they can't make money are still saying they can't make money and the ones that do make money are saying....well they never really say anything. Honestly if things went like chickens and hogs it would be better for most guys. What fence said above is very true.

How much does a 550-600 pound weaning size calve need to sell for to be profitable? It'd be nice to know what most guys need to be profitable. Things will turn around like they always do. Just gotta tough it out.

Rough numbers are a buck fifty a day to maintain a cow. So your input cost is 547 dollars to break even with 100% calf crop.

 

[Lucky]

I'm with you on the cost to raise CB. I'd like to know what most producers think the profit margin should be per calf at weaning. It seems to me allot of folks think that 100 mama cows ought to pay for their feed, meds, land, equipment, etc. On top of that they think they should be dragging in 100k for personal living expenses. All this for working 3 hours a day 5 days a week taking care of the herd.

I'm good with $300-350 a head if I straighten them out for 45 days. If I feed them for 90-210 days I'd like to get another $150 after feed cost. Some years it works that way some years it doesn't. The trick is to position yourself to be able to hold on the low market and sell when you can make an acceptable profit. That being said if I ever figure that out I'll let everyone know the secret.

 

[Caustic Burno]

At today's cost 4 wts should fetch 2.00 to 2.25 a pound for a prime calf.
That's my crystal ball.

 

[MurraysMutts]

Thanks for the link CB.

Striving for 100% this year. Last year was more loss than I cared to figure! Lol. But there was a lot of new cows/heifers. A couple were real duds. And a handful hurts when you only run 25 or 30. The day job supports for now. We will get thru it and things will be much better.
I work most of the summer with a friend, cutting hay, for my hay.
When I sold calves last year I bought feed for the winter for the cows. As well as some mineral feeders and mineral. And a few new hay rings. They did much better this winter.
But I didnt buy enough for the whole winter. So there will be added expense this fall when I sell calves. Because I'll need more feed. Wont have mineral feeders and hay rings to buy tho so that helps. The good news is, theres more calves to sell than last year!
Not much I can cut corners on around here. Try and keep things as minimal as possible and still do right by my cows.

 

[Nesikep]

Thanks for the link CB.

Striving for 100% this year. Last year was more loss than I cared to figure! Lol. But there was a lot of new cows/heifers. A couple were real duds. And a handful hurts when you only run 25 or 30. The day job supports for now. We will get thru it and things will be much better.
I work most of the summer with a friend, cutting hay, for my hay.
When I sold calves last year I bought feed for the winter for the cows. As well as some mineral feeders and mineral. And a few new hay rings. They did much better this winter.
But I didnt buy enough for the whole winter. So there will be added expense this fall when I sell calves. Because I'll need more feed. Wont have mineral feeders and hay rings to buy tho so that helps. The good news is, theres more calves to sell than last year!
Not much I can cut corners on around here. Try and keep things as minimal as possible and still do right by my cows.

Yup, everything is harder to manage on a small herd, a couple cows come up as duds and there's 10% of your herd gone if you run 20 (like me).. I keep about 3-4 heifers a year, typically one will get culled after the first calf and one will probably be gone before she's 5.. I have a few old cows I don't care for but they keep making a calf so i've put off culling them.. I have a FLOOD of heifers this year and the 4 from last year are looking promising.. I might keep 5 this year and finally have no excuse to keep cows I don't like... I'm hoping the cow market is good this summer.. got a couple BIG cows to go

 

[Aaron]

Not changing a thing. Just got a little tighter grip on the cow tail as I enjoy the ride.

Life is damn good compared to everyone in the towns and cities right now.

And all this while the accountant emails me today as he is finishing the taxes and says 'how did you lose 30k last year?' A little mix of luck and talent...

 

[sstterry]

Re: Today's workshop
Post by Caustic Burno » Fri Apr 17, 2015 7:03 pm

JSC they discussed that and how those cows wont pay out with the predictions.
People are buying like they are never going down. This has always been a cyclic market.

Another graphic they had that doesn't look good for cattlemen in the S/E US is the national herd is shifting to
the plains states and declining in the Eastern.
Largely due to feedlots being in the corn belt and the added trucking cost to get them there from the east.

This prediction has been spot on. Our prices in the SE are nothing compared to the midwest

 

[Caustic Burno]

With the trend in our current economic situation beef will be first to leave the table. It's going to be a rough year in my opinion. People are going to look to cheaper protein IMO. We have a year in our product, the chicken house can replace every chicken in 21 days. The pork guys can produce a litter in 3 months 3 weeks and 3 days up to 3 a year.
Americans will slash the food budget to pay bills and entertainment. I remember years ago an economist watched the sales of underwear saying it was the first thing Americans trimmed from the budget in hard times