Nesikep
Well-known member
Touche!.. I'd like something in between though
Cattle Prices Going Forward
- Thread starter sstterry
- Start date
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China appears more vulnerable, with Societe Generale economists estimating that the Chinese economy could lose 1 percentage point of GDP growth and upwards of four million jobs while the U.S. would suffer a modest 0.2 percentage point drag on GDP growth.
While U.S markets are taking this in stride, Chinese share prices are down 12 percent over the past month on reports that U.S. export orders have shrunk as customers wait to see what happens with tariffs and thus the cost of sourcing.
TRUMP!!!!
While U.S markets are taking this in stride, Chinese share prices are down 12 percent over the past month on reports that U.S. export orders have shrunk as customers wait to see what happens with tariffs and thus the cost of sourcing.
TRUMP!!!!
True Grit Farms
Well-known member
We need to play fair and do what's right for everyone. You can push to hard even when your right. Personally I don't need to be a billionaire.
Bright Raven
Well-known member
Back on the domestic dynamics of cattle markets - feeder, seedstock, show, etc. I often wonder when the producers like we have in Kentucky, are going to throw in the towel. Kentucky's average herd size is approximately 20 brood cows. The average producer works a town job - i.e. they work for government, utilities, retail, teachers, service, etc. Kentucky has limited industrial occupations. Lots of folks here work in some form of government- city, county, state, federal. My brother and I were talking. If you look at some of the families in our community - half the family members' jobs go back to government.
Back on point - these folks are not making money on cattle. Their off the farm employment subsidies their cattle operations. Those that claim they make money - well, talk to them for 30 minutes - ask some questions and you will learn they are not accounting for all their expenses.
When will these producers get tired of the "hobby"? With many going into their 50s and 60s, when will they decide to quit.
The bottom line I wonder about - in 10 years will there be a reduction in production that will cause a jump in beef prices? Or will other sources of protein make beef obsolete?
Wouldn't it be ironic if the core of cattle production was show cattle. There are many show producers who don't do this for profit. They do it because they enjoy breeding and showing cattle. Many are wealthy and don't need the income.
Back on point - these folks are not making money on cattle. Their off the farm employment subsidies their cattle operations. Those that claim they make money - well, talk to them for 30 minutes - ask some questions and you will learn they are not accounting for all their expenses.
When will these producers get tired of the "hobby"? With many going into their 50s and 60s, when will they decide to quit.
The bottom line I wonder about - in 10 years will there be a reduction in production that will cause a jump in beef prices? Or will other sources of protein make beef obsolete?
Wouldn't it be ironic if the core of cattle production was show cattle. There are many show producers who don't do this for profit. They do it because they enjoy breeding and showing cattle. Many are wealthy and don't need the income.
True Grit Farms
Well-known member
I agree with all that, but life's been good for US. The US government is the biggest business in the world. We've been needing to overhaul the system for years, but we don't need to rule the world. 24 years of movie stars, draft dodgers, and community organizers as POTUS has caught up with US. And then 12 more years of family money in between trying not to rock the boat, it's plum amazing we're still the US of A.ddd75":nwom1mro said:
Bright Raven
Well-known member
True Grit Farms":tupxyjlu said:
Our economy is not sustainable. I know, I know. All the way back to Reagan - his economic advisor ( cannot remember his name) has been preaching that so who knows how much longer it can go. But if you take away the money (debt created through treasury bills) our government brings in to keep this "fake" economy running - we would be on the worldwide street corner with the rest of the third world nations.
True Grit Farms
Well-known member
I don't agree with that. For starters we have China over a barrel because of the debt their holding. The wealthy have enough money to bail this country out, and the wealthy liberals have already proven that they won't leave the US of A.Bright Raven":e6sn6ybm said:
We're not like any other country in the world. The UN and the rest of the civilized country's want the US to live in poverty.
Silver
Well-known member
True Grit Farms":3qb5t78x said:
It wouldn't be pretty for sure. At least for awhile. Back before free trade Canadian beef production pretty much just supplied domestic demand, and we did fine. I'm sure we could do it again.
And it's not that no Americans don't need what we have, during the mad cow border closure there were some American packing plants up north that were in big trouble, if I recall some may have closed. That was problematical not only in terms of jobs but American producers having to ship their cattle further to market, and less killing capacity isn't good for anyone.
True Grit Farms
Well-known member
We'll work it out, we're neighbors. We just need to make it even on both sides of the fence. Fences make good neighbors. I use to spend a lot of time in Canada hunting and fishing, now it's such a pita to travel there.Silver":jjsg4qpn said:
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
Talking supply/demand heads projected flat to down cattle prices till 2020, when beef price cycle would start to turn up. Drought caused cow slaughter could speed this up a bit. Meanwhile back at the ranch - - grain prices have dropped a lot and feeder prices have strengthened a little. This was not projected. :shock: Who can you trust... A gambler would be selling cattle and buying grain at this point.
I think there are three obvious trade paths forward:
1) The pissing match ends quickly and we have a group hug for fair trade. Not likely.
2) The government writes a check to grain farmers. Lots of precedence here.
3) We loose the Chinese market just like we lost the Russian market back in the 70's. They don't have to worry about fall elections in China. It may be time to start selling that over priced land!
I think there are three obvious trade paths forward:
1) The pissing match ends quickly and we have a group hug for fair trade. Not likely.
2) The government writes a check to grain farmers. Lots of precedence here.
3) We loose the Chinese market just like we lost the Russian market back in the 70's. They don't have to worry about fall elections in China. It may be time to start selling that over priced land!
Back to the original question my pee brain has to ask " Do other countries have a cattle industry like the USA?" I don't know the answer but if not other countries will still want our beef. Mexico and Brazil could have a huge beef industry if they could get it together but I don't see that happening at least not quality wise. The government will never let farmers, ranchers, or dairymen make what they should, they can't afford to. Prices will stay steady with ups and downs and every 5 or so years cattlemen will be allowed to make some good money? There is no way to make a profit worthwhile in this biz with the income that comes strictly from selling commercial calves for beef production. Unless maybe you inherited a big operation or get lucky enough to lock in a 30 yr lease on 10,000 acres.
OP
OP
Lucky,Lucky":23fdmqg7 said:
This is part of my reason for asking the question. Another thread on this Board deals with Argentinian Beef. Why the Heck are we buying beef from Argentina?
I figure fast food places, govt. commodities, and govt. back scratching is the bulk of agentina beef buying. I watched a show a couple years ago and some of these countries had huge ranches but the sorriest cattle you've ever seen and no vaccination programs. We've got countrys that won't buy beef from us because of a mad cow scare ( bunch of BS) but we buy beef from countries that could care less about health or quality. It's the same with the Catfish industry. I'm not smart enough to figure it out so I voted for a man that seems to be on our side. Guess time will tell. I wish I could post a link to a youtube video I watched that tslked about the true cost of ranching. I watched it thinking "whatever" but he pretty well nailed it. Oh yea funny how one of the folks that gets upset about CG8 using the term "Hobby Rancher" fessed up that most are. I'm gonna say the Seedstock and Show Cattle industry isn't a blimp on the radar when it comes to feeder cattle. I've been wrong before though.
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
sstterry":1zy65pof said:
"Grassfed" !!!
ddd75":2qauetyg said:
I'm definitely not a BTO but wouldn't exactly say I'm a hobby farmer either. When you consider the fact that I've bought all the land I run on, bought all the equipment, built several miles of fence, had pools dug, and bought all the cattle it comes up to allot of money. When I figure profit per cow I figure in leasing the land from myself because cows won't pay for it and I just figure some folks buy bass boats and campers I buy tractors and equipment again cows won't pay for it. It's definitely all a long term investment. I try to profit $600 a calf but that's hard to do. If I do make $600 a calf that just means I have a little improvement money for next year, It's not money to live on. I try not to think about all that stuff, you just gotta like what you do I guess.
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
sstterry said:
