At what point would you give up?

[Herefordcross]

Those of you that went through a very long drought and culled and sold and trimmed and shaved your herds. If feed would've have been available would you have borrowed money instead of culling till you had nothing left. Been doing some reading by accident actually and some college kid is doing a study on ranches in TX, OK and I think some in CA who went about things different ways when they went through a few year drought. I will be very interested to see what it looks like when he's done if it's done in fairness and without bias. To see whether the ones that borrowed to the rim or the ones that culled till they had no herd faired out the best??!

 

[Wewild]

We had grass that would crunch when you stepped on it. For some reason we never had to cull and it finally rained.

The cattle even started their own form of rotational grazing as they stayed in one small part of the pasture as a whole at one place. As the rains came and the grass came back 2 weeks later, the cattle have ranged as they did before.

We had to feed about 10 bales at another place. I guess we will never know how far we would have gone as things changed. We also have hay from times past.

We got a hay crop a coming ... still in what is called a drought area .... and it is Johnson Grass. The stuff is 4 foot high and thick as thieves. When you dig in the ground to see how far the moisture is and look at the growth above, sometimes you can tell you are going to make it as you are.

 

[cowboy44]

The trouble about a drought is you don't know when it will start and end and you keep holding on till it's too late. Our drought started after a very wet year just like you cut the faucet off and lasted 2 years and now we have had 51 inches this year, our yearly average is a little over 30 inches. To get back to your question if I had it to do over I would have sold out and bought back I would have been way ahead, I sold half my herd to buy feed and pulled out of my saving to survive I figure it will take me about 5 years to regain the loses I had in those 2 years, hay went from $30 a roll to $100 it is like gambling you just get deeper in the hole One thing I did learn is not to over stock, to stock about 75% of your carrying capacity and be prepared for the next drought,

 

[Wewild]

One thing I did learn is not to over stock, to stock about 75% of your carrying capacity and be prepared for the next drought,

That may be the reason why we made it. You can support them with land or hay in bad times. I can't see doing it from a sack.

 

[dun]

Borrowing money for feed is a suckers game. Cull hard and do it before everyone else does. If you wait too long it's a double wammy. Condition of the cattle will bring the price down and the glut of cattle on the market will hit you again even harder hen their condition. Complete destocking may even be called for.

 

[Bez>]

Those of you that went through a very long drought and culled and sold and trimmed and shaved your herds. If feed would've have been available would you have borrowed money instead of culling till you had nothing left. Been doing some reading by accident actually and some college kid is doing a study on ranches in TX, OK and I think some in CA who went about things different ways when they went through a few year drought. I will be very interested to see what it looks like when he's done if it's done in fairness and without bias. To see whether the ones that borrowed to the rim or the ones that culled till they had no herd faired out the best??!

Do not know how many times I have to write this but:

Drought comes - everyone wants to buy hay. Hay prices go up.

Bank lends you money.

You take from savings - reducing your net worth.

People cannot afford hay in prolonged situation and bank starts closing the door on your requests for cash.

People slowly start to cull.

Cow prices dip slightly.

Hay becomes even more expensive.

People start to sell cows faster.

Cow prices really fall.

Now you have a big bank loan, no feed and cows you cannot give away.

It takes frigging years and years to pay back the banks - the banks WILL take the farms of those who cannot pay back.

You play that game and you WILL be payng the bank for years.

When cow prices come back you WILL be in the lose situation due to debt.

You will not be able to enjoy any profit because you will be giving it all away.

Beat the rush - if necessary - sell everything!!! Do it first and sit on the money. Yo are in the business of cows - that means they are always for sale.

Sell them high or sell them low - your choice. But if the drought is prolonged - the banks may sell them for you.

Trust me - I have that T shirt.

Bez>

 

[backhoeboogie]

Complete dispersal was widespread around here. Building back is the hard part.

 

[Bez>]

Complete dispersal was widespread around here. Building back is the hard part.

Agreed - but at least the cash is there and the debt is not.

As a businessman, you know the value of those two MAJOR issues.

Better to build back with cash than struggle for years under debt.

Bez>

 

[Jogeephus]

Unfortunately I have dealt with drought for the last two years. This year was by far the worst I ever saw. In my situation, cows will only make me money when the are grazing. Due to the lack of grazing, it was a no-brainer as to the only option I had to make money. I culled to the bones and sold steers earlier than I wanted to. Right now, I have no debt and I have more money in the cow account than ever. Plus, I kept a good many heifers which actually leaves me with more head than I had before the exodus.

It looked like the drought has subsided but we are still probably just two weeks away from critical if rain doesn't come shortly. If it rains, I'll have extra hay to sell. If it doesn't, I think I'll get by with the hay I got plus still be debt free. Nonetheless, it will take me two years to rebuild my predrought numbers if I don't buy some springers or something.

 

[dun]

Unfortunately I have dealt with drought for the last two years. This year was by far the worst I ever saw. In my situation, cows will only make me money when the are grazing. Due to the lack of grazing, it was a no-brainer as to the only option I had to make money. I culled to the bones and sold steers earlier than I wanted to. Right now, I have no debt and I have more money in the cow account than ever. Plus, I kept a good many heifers which actually leaves me with more head than I had before the exodus.

It looked like the drought has subsided but we are still probably just two weeks away from critical if rain doesn't come shortly. If it rains, I'll have extra hay to sell. If it doesn't, I think I'll get by with the hay I got plus still be debt free. Nonetheless, it will take me two years to rebuild my predrought numbers if I don't buy some springers or something.

Don;t be in a big hurry to rebuild. he affects of drought linger for a lot longer then you would think. Just because a drought appears to be broken, the dmagae that has been done is jus hiding in the busshes waiting to bite your butt. A prolonged dry spell, not even a drought, just reestablishes the drought conditions.

 

[I luv herfrds]

The only reason we survived a drought was we were stocked at 75% and culled the only open cow we had that year plus 6 more that had the look of beginning cancer eye.
Husband put up droughted out winter wheat and barley for hay. Our normal oat hay was way below normal. We also keep an extra year of hay around.
Fed everything up right down to a stack of rotten straw. Ground it up in a feed grinder along with some barley.
We were about 4 weeks from having to ship everything and the rain started. Still recovering. It has been 6 years and things are just getting back to close to normal.

 

[Bez+]

Well, we were paying about 107 bucks a bale and feeding nearly 30 bales a day - does not take long to run into money probs.

If we are talking a small herd that is not your main income perhaps it is different.

In retrospect we should have de-stocked completely - we would have had a couple hundred thou in the bank and no debt.

We sold all the calves light and early - got a good price - but kept the cows - real bad move.

Cows can always be bought - but debt goes on forever.

Bez.

 

[Tommy Ruyle]

Bez said,

Cows can always be bought - but debt goes on forever.

Those are words of wisdom! Best ten words of entire post.

 

[Gate Opener]

We should have sold out also. We didn't have many cows but it still would have been smarter to sell them all. One of the things I would think is that cows are going to be real high when people start stocking back up. Well they are high but not high enough to justify the extra costs of the hay we fed during the drought.

 

[TheBullLady]

That, of course, is the trick to something that relys on quirks of nature, like raising cattle and being profitable in it. You should buy when they're cheap and sell when they're high.

We learned that after moving here from Illinois.. brought 110 cows to a place that could only run 25. So as soon as female prices started going up, two years ago, we sold off a BUNCH of the herd. So we were in a good position when the drought came.. not from any forward thinking, just lucky. This year we've got more grass then we know what to do with.. and LOVE it! And if cattle get much higher, I've got some really fine 1/2 x 1/2 young cows that will be sold.

 

[I luv herfrds]

Well Bez that is well said.
We did hang in there shipping the calves the first of Oct. Everybody was shipping at that time so the price was down.
If we had run completely out of feed then we would have shipped everything. Just couldn't bring ourselves to ship off three generations worth of cattle raising.
To each their own though.
We gambled and won that toss of the dice unlike alot of guys.