Are you considering a change?

[Crazy Farmgirl]

After reading this article I can't help but wonder!

http://cattletoday.com/archive/2012/January/CT2650.php

Since the drought has affected the cattle industry across the nation, obviously some areas more than others, has it changed your outlook for your operation? I am curious if those in the drought areas who either sold out completely or drastically reduced herds are planning to repopulate and if so are you going to stick with the same type of operation? same breed? What will be your limiting factors?

Then for those who are not directly affected by the drought has the outlook in the cattle industry caused you to rethink your operation? Expanding more than you had previously planned? Possibly even changing the type of operation you run? Those of you who are in a position to do so would you gamble on the "forecasted" beef shortages in hopes of better returns?

I'd be crazy to say I hadn't thought about it, I have gone so far as to look into financing the purchase of more animals. While prices here in northern Michigan have increased they are still well below what other markets are seeing, purchasing animals is still realistic. Up to this point in my operation I have made a point not to owe any money on anything so growth has been slow, I have the land and resources to support a larger herd. While no solid plans have ben laid down I am definatly considering an expansion or even diversity in the operation, possibly running stockers.

Just curious if I am the only one looking into this and which direction your thinking of going.

 

[Limomike]

CFG... I think you are right on target with what others are considering, from what I have learned. I must admit, I too have looked into expanding, as my acreage could handle it. I too, am at the point where I dont owe anyone for anything, and its a good feeling.
And as the old arguement continues.. is it better to hold back replacements or buy new ones?? I personally prefer to hold my own back.. BUT... that being said, I know the costs involved will increase, (and have already) and as I have always known.... Dont fix things that arent broken.

 

[Anonymous]

The time to expand was 9 months ago. By the time most consider a change to follow trends it's too late.
Now with the sell off and current trends things may be different. As much as I would like to move into other avenues as far as cattle go Im enjoying being debt free( not counting the house and land)

 

[TexasBred]

I'll probably get back in eventually but have always tried to never own more than I could take care of by myself and give them all the attention they need regardless of market. For me that's about 30-35 cows maximum.

 

[Crazy Farmgirl]

The time to expand was 9 months ago. By the time most consider a change to follow trends it's too late.
Now with the sell off and current trends things may be different. As much as I would like to move into other avenues as far as cattle go Im enjoying being debt free( not counting the house and land)

All predictions I have seen state that this turn in the market won't end soon. Most say 3-5 yrs. There is no significant relief forcasted for the drought areas, most say it will remain below normal precipt for years. Not to mention there is no way the shortage of cattle created by the sell-off can be recouped in a few months. Americans won't stop eating beef they will simply complain about the price but I doubt you'll see huge decrease in demand.

 

[bigbull338]

we have yet to cull the herd due to drought.but weve done some hard looking at the cattle we run.an have decided if we cull the herd that the reg cows will stay.an if we buy cattle we only want to buy reg cows.i can get top reg cows an heifers for a hair more than plan old stock cows an heifers.

 

[TexasBred]

we have yet to cull the herd due to drought.but weve done some hard looking at the cattle we run.an have decided if we cull the herd that the reg cows will stay.an if we buy cattle we only want to buy reg cows.i can get top reg cows an heifers for a hair more than plan old stock cows an heifers.

If you can you're buying the bottom end of the herd you're pulling from.

 

[Stocker Steve]

We change every year. Some years we even make progress! This year we are culling some bred cows, retaining more heifers, syncing the spring herd, and starting to renovating a couple paddocks per year with corn.

 

[bigbull338]

we have yet to cull the herd due to drought.but weve done some hard looking at the cattle we run.an have decided if we cull the herd that the reg cows will stay.an if we buy cattle we only want to buy reg cows.i can get top reg cows an heifers for a hair more than plan old stock cows an heifers.

If you can you're buying the bottom end of the herd you're pulling from.

if i buy from certain herds it cost me from $2500 to $4000 a hd.if i buy from some herds i know i can get pairs or bred cows for $1500.if i buy open heifers itll run me from $900 to $1500 or more.i buy from assoc sales as well for under $2000 for pairs or bred cows.will see how the prices are in june.

 

[Isomade]

I hope others reply to this thread. I would like to see others thoughts as well. I was effected very much by the last drought. In the past I have always believed in being terminal for the best profits. I have some nice commercial cows and run Char bulls. I had purchased more land prior to the drought so I am running pretty low on stocking rate. The change I am looking at is just swapping out bulls for something I can keep heifers out of. I just can't see paying 1600-2000 for quality heifers to expand. This will allow me to let my grass get some much needed rest and see how much moisture I get next year. But of course I flop back and forth from day to day so we will see.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Replacements can gross more per acre than cows, in part since they are half the size of a pair...
Issues with this are cash flow and after tax profit. Buying a pair and taking a 179 is attractive if you are paying income tax.
Best deal I saw last year were rwf pairs in August. I bought 4 pairs and should have gotten a lot more.

 

[JSCATTLE]

I saved 20 replacements this past year . But I also culled quite a few cows . My Idea used to be to run as many cows as possible on leased land. After this drought I've let my leases go back and I saved the best 50 brangus cows . I will keep one brangus bull for my replacements and I'm currently looking for a gOod polled Hereford bull to make a few baldie heifers to sell . I'm also going to hold all of my calves and sell them as yearlings instead of trailer weening them .

 

[Jim62]

After selling all the cattle, I leased my whole place to the hay guy. Don't know why I didn't think of this 10 years ago........... :dunce: :???:

 

[Jogeephus]

I'm down in numbers still from the drought. Am thinking we are on our way to another drought this summer so I'm not in any hurry to increase numbers. Have raised some replacements and these will be entering the herd as soon as I get off my butt and move them. I'm thinking about leasing out one of my hay fields since I don't need the hay anymore and I can't run cattle on that property without a lot of expense I just can't justify. In won't be making any changes in what I"m doing. Just in a steady holding pattern.

 

[Crazy Farmgirl]

After selling all the cattle, I leased my whole place to the hay guy. Don't know why I didn't think of this 10 years ago........... :dunce: :???:

Plenty of farmers doing that here too! The farmer who offered me his herd for a song is going that route, already sold all this years hay. Said the price he got for the hay almost made giving away the cows an attractive idea, said the price their paying was high enough that even if his production costs triple he'll still make more money than the with the cows.

Have also seen many go from animal production to raising crops (corn, soybeans, wheat ect). Makes you wonder if that will become an influence in the cattle market also?

 

[bigbull338]

until the drought breaks it makes sense to bale alot of acs an make money selling hay.but once the drought breaks hay prices will bottom back out at $40 a bale or less.in the next month or 6wks hay prices will dropp here fast.i had a call a few days ago wanting to know if i wanted any hay for $60 a bale.we told him no we had enough hay.if id checked on that hay id prolly offered him $40 or $45 a bale.

 

[Limomike]

Plenty of farmers doing that here too! The farmer who offered me his herd for a song is going that route, already sold all this years hay. Said the price he got for the hay almost made giving away the cows an attractive idea, said the price their paying was high enough that even if his production costs triple he'll still make more money than the with the cows.

Have also seen many go from animal production to raising crops (corn, soybeans, wheat ect). Makes you wonder if that will become an influence in the cattle market also?[/quote]

My neighbor did the same thing.. sold MOST of his cows.. kept some stocker calves, and mainly does custom baling. Said he is making more from the hay then he did with cattle.

 

[1982vett]

I've already made the changes....anthing new would be optimistic.....

 

[GMN]

I got rid of my older cows with high cell issues, running tank of less than 100,000 now, a plus htere, am waiting for replacements and another calf crop to hit. I must come up with a better feed program to stay in the business though soo that will be the next change

 

[VanC]

I got rid of my older cows with high cell issues, running tank of less than 100,000 now, a plus htere, am waiting for replacements and another calf crop to hit. I must come up with a better feed program to stay in the business though soo that will be the next change

Sounds like you've done a good job on the SCC. Having spent much of my youth on a family dairy farm I can identify with you somewhat. I know what it takes to survive and I'm guessing it's tougher now than it was 40 years ago. Good luck. I hope you, and every other family farmer, stay in business for a long time.