All the ingredients are there for a Harvey storm..Oh Goody!

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greybeard

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Well, almost. Still has to have a tropical wave come in from the Atlantic or Caribbean to feed off off the deep warm waters..

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/High- ... ent-Eddies

Even when a Loop Current eddy has been separated from the Loop Current for more than a year, it can still provide a potent source of heat energy for a hurricane. Hurricane Harvey of 2017 was fueled by an old Loop Current eddy that had migrated to the coast of Texas, a full 16 months after it had broken off from the Loop Current. This heat energy contributed to Hurricane Harvey’s record rains. A 2018 paper by Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Hurricane Harvey Links to Ocean Heat Content and Climate Change Adaptation concluded: “The bottom line is that the total observed OHC change is remarkably compatible with the total energy released by precipitation and, unsurprisingly, reflects strong energy exchanges during the hurricane. Accordingly, the record high OHC values not only increased the latent heat which fueled the storm itself, likely increasing its size and intensity, but also likely contributed substantially to the flooding caused by rainfall on land. The implication is that if the OHC had been less, then the rainfall amounts would also have been less.”

Ocean heat content:
2017-2018-loop.jpg

Figure 3. A comparison of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) levels in the Gulf of Mexico in 2017 and in 2018. There are two Loop Current eddies in the Gulf this year, compared to one last year. OHC levels were at near-record levels both years. Image credit: University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Two Loop Current eddies in the Gulf for the 2018 hurricane season:
A large warm eddy broke off of the Loop Current in February 2018, and has drifted slowly west-southwest during the year, arriving in late July to a position about 300 miles east of the Texas/Mexico and border and 400 miles south of western Louisiana (Figure 3). As if that weren’t enough, we had a new and larger warm eddy break off from the Loop Current in late June. That eddy is located a few hundred miles west of the southwest coast of Florida. Both of these eddies are capable of supplying major heat energy to tropical cyclones that might get loose in the Gulf. The total amount of heat energy in the Gulf right now is at near-record levels for this time of year—similar to last year’s levels, and far higher than what was observed during the nasty Hurricane Season of 2005.
 

Txpiney

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They're just full of good news. I just got the new flooring installed yesterday to finish the repairs from Harvy that insurance didn't cover. Don't want to go through that anytime soon again. I know you had a helluva time with it too.
 

Workinonit Farm

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I've catching bits & pieces of the forecast, for the area down your way, and have had some concern for you guys.

I really hope, for all of you, that it doesn't become another Harvey.
 

callmefence

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greybeard":2xt3t6pf said:
Well, almost. Still has to have a tropical wave come in from the Atlantic or Caribbean to feed off off the deep warm waters..

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/High- ... ent-Eddies

Even when a Loop Current eddy has been separated from the Loop Current for more than a year, it can still provide a potent source of heat energy for a hurricane. Hurricane Harvey of 2017 was fueled by an old Loop Current eddy that had migrated to the coast of Texas, a full 16 months after it had broken off from the Loop Current. This heat energy contributed to Hurricane Harvey’s record rains. A 2018 paper by Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Hurricane Harvey Links to Ocean Heat Content and Climate Change Adaptation concluded: “The bottom line is that the total observed OHC change is remarkably compatible with the total energy released by precipitation and, unsurprisingly, reflects strong energy exchanges during the hurricane. Accordingly, the record high OHC values not only increased the latent heat which fueled the storm itself, likely increasing its size and intensity, but also likely contributed substantially to the flooding caused by rainfall on land. The implication is that if the OHC had been less, then the rainfall amounts would also have been less.”

Ocean heat content:
2017-2018-loop.jpg

Figure 3. A comparison of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) levels in the Gulf of Mexico in 2017 and in 2018. There are two Loop Current eddies in the Gulf this year, compared to one last year. OHC levels were at near-record levels both years. Image credit: University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Two Loop Current eddies in the Gulf for the 2018 hurricane season:
A large warm eddy broke off of the Loop Current in February 2018, and has drifted slowly west-southwest during the year, arriving in late July to a position about 300 miles east of the Texas/Mexico and border and 400 miles south of western Louisiana (Figure 3). As if that weren’t enough, we had a new and larger warm eddy break off from the Loop Current in late June. That eddy is located a few hundred miles west of the southwest coast of Florida. Both of these eddies are capable of supplying major heat energy to tropical cyclones that might get loose in the Gulf. The total amount of heat energy in the Gulf right now is at near-record levels for this time of year—similar to last year’s levels, and far higher than what was observed during the nasty Hurricane Season of 2005.

And their so accurate at forecasting the weather.....I have more faith in the thermometer in my truck... :lol2:
 
OP
greybeard

greybeard

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me too could use some rain, grass is crunchy but the valve don't always get shut off when it's time........

Yep, weather liars........only people that can be wrong 50% of the time and keep their jobs.
 

1982vett

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greybeard":2fkzdfe7 said:
me too could use some rain, grass is crunchy but the valve don't always get shut off when it's time........

Yep, weather liars........only people that can be wrong 50% of the time and keep their jobs.
50% :?: :?: :?: Your generous......
 

hurleyjd

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Did not pay much attention to where I read it but some forecasters are saying we may have type 6 hurricane this years. Now how bad is that going to be.
 

hurleyjd

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M-5":ies6umcy said:
hurleyjd":ies6umcy said:
Did not pay much attention to where I read it but some forecasters are saying we may have type 6 hurricane this years. Now how bad is that going to be.
Some of your fake news publications you depend on.



Well thanks I stand corrected.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... wind-scale
 

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